Quarterback is one of the deepest positions in 2026 fantasy football drafts, which makes paying the correct price especially important. There are several proven QB1 options available outside the early rounds, giving fantasy managers little reason to reach for players carrying significant efficiency, injury, or supporting-cast concerns. When similarly productive quarterbacks can be found much later, drafting the position becomes less about chasing name value and more about identifying the best combination of ceiling and cost.
Trevor Lawrence, Kyler Murray, and Jared Goff are all being drafted below the level their recent production and offensive environments suggest. Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, and Bo Nix remain capable fantasy starters, but each carries enough risk to make his current price difficult to justify in such a deep quarterback class.
Target: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence quietly became one of fantasy football’s biggest breakout quarterbacks last season despite operating with arguably the league’s weakest supporting cast. Jacksonville receivers led the NFL in dropped passes, yet Lawrence still threw for 4,007 yards while accounting for 38 total touchdowns and averaging 20.6 fantasy points per game. His nine rushing touchdowns added another dimension to his fantasy profile, helping him finish as the QB5 overall. The underlying metrics are equally encouraging. Lawrence ranked fourth in the NFL in air yards, deep pass attempts, and red-zone pass attempts, showing Jacksonville consistently trusted him to push the ball downfield and create scoring opportunities.
The outlook only gets better entering Year 2 under Liam Coen. Quarterbacks often make their biggest leap after spending a full offseason in the same offensive system, and Lawrence now gets that advantage after producing career-best numbers in his first year. Jacksonville also projects to have the fourth-easiest quarterback schedule this season, giving him favorable matchups throughout the year. Considering what he accomplished despite the league’s worst supporting cast and constant dropped passes, there’s a legitimate argument that his best football is still ahead of him. If the rushing production remains part of his game, Lawrence has everything needed to challenge for the overall QB1 finish while being drafted several rounds later.
Avoid: Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels remains one of the league’s most dynamic quarterbacks, but fantasy managers are paying for his rookie-season ceiling instead of acknowledging the risk that comes with his current profile. After averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game during his rookie campaign, Daniels fell to just 16.8 points per game last season as injuries disrupted his rhythm and his completion percentage dropped by roughly nine percent. While his rushing ability still provides an excellent weekly floor, it also exposes him to additional hits, making durability an ongoing concern after battling multiple injuries throughout 2025.
The environment around Daniels also raises more questions than answers. Kliff Kingsbury is no longer calling plays, meaning Daniels will work with a new offensive coordinator for the first time as a professional. Outside of Terry McLaurin, Washington still lacks a proven difference-maker in the receiving corps, and the offensive line remains one of the weaker units among playoff contenders. Add in the 26th-ranked quarterback strength of schedule, and there are simply more obstacles than fantasy managers seem willing to acknowledge. Daniels absolutely possesses top-five upside, but quarterback is far too deep this season to pay a QB5 price for a player carrying this much week-to-week variance.
Target: Kyler Murray, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Few quarterbacks are being discounted more heavily than Kyler Murray this draft season. Every healthy season of Murray’s career has resulted in a top-10 fantasy finish, and his rushing production continues to separate him from nearly every quarterback outside the elite tier. Murray has averaged at least 30 rushing yards per game in seven consecutive seasons, creating one of the safest fantasy floors in football whenever he’s on the field. Last year’s injury-shortened season has pushed him outside the top 100 picks and into the QB17 range, allowing fantasy managers to draft a player with proven QB1 production at a QB2 price.
Minnesota gives Murray arguably the best offensive situation of his career. Justin Jefferson remains the premier receiver in football, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings provide additional explosive weapons, and Kevin O’Connell has consistently built one of the NFL’s most quarterback-friendly passing attacks. The Vikings also project to have the second-easiest quarterback schedule this season, further boosting Murray’s outlook. Fantasy managers are essentially drafting him at his floor while still receiving all of the upside that comes with one of the league’s best rushing quarterbacks. If Murray stays healthy, he has every opportunity to finish well above his current ADP and reestablish himself as a high-end fantasy starter.
Avoid: Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Jalen Hurts continues to produce solid fantasy numbers, but several trends suggest his elite ceiling is beginning to fade. His rushing production has steadily declined over the last two seasons, with decreases in both rushing EPA and total rushing yards, while his passing volume has remained limited. Hurts has now failed to reach 3,300 passing yards in back-to-back seasons, making him increasingly dependent on rushing touchdowns to separate himself from the rest of the quarterback position. As those rushing numbers begin to normalize, so does his fantasy advantage.
Philadelphia still projects to be one of the NFL’s best teams and owns the easiest quarterback schedule this season, but that’s almost part of the concern. The Eagles don’t need Hurts to throw 40 times or carry the offense every week because Saquon Barkley and the running game can control games on their own. Losing A.J. Brown also puts even more pressure on a young receiving corps to develop quickly. Hurts should absolutely remain a quality fantasy starter, but the QB6 price assumes he returns to the rushing dominance that made him a fantasy superstar. In a season loaded with quarterback value throughout the middle rounds, that feels like an unnecessary gamble.
Target: Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
Fantasy managers continue to overlook Jared Goff despite four consecutive top-10 fantasy finishes. Over that span, Goff has averaged more than 4,500 passing yards and over 32 passing touchdowns per season, making him one of the most reliable quarterbacks in fantasy football. Last season was viewed as a slight step back for Detroit’s offense, yet Goff still threw for 4,564 yards, 34 touchdowns, and only eight interceptions while once again finishing among the league’s best pure passers. He has also not missed a game since 2021, providing one of the safest weekly floors at the position.
Detroit’s offense remains loaded entering 2026. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, and Jahmyr Gibbs give Goff arguably the deepest collection of weapons in the NFL, while Drew Petzing takes over offensive coordinator duties after helping Jacoby Brissett play some of the best football of his career in Arizona. The Lions have finished inside the NFL’s top five in total offense every season since 2022, and there’s little reason to believe that changes this year. Goff’s lack of rushing production will always cap his overall ceiling, but fantasy managers aren’t drafting him to finish as the QB1 overall. They’re drafting a quarterback with four straight top-10 finishes at a QB16-QB18 price, making him one of the easiest values at the position.
Avoid: Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Bo Nix’s fantasy finish last season looks far better than the quarterback he actually was. He finished as the QB11 in fantasy points per game, but much of that production came from leading the NFL in pass attempts rather than playing efficient football. Nix averaged just 6.4 yards per attempt while ranking 31st in catchable throw rate and 32nd in true passer rating. His success rate also remained near the bottom of the league, highlighting how inconsistent Denver’s passing game was despite the fantasy production created through sheer volume.
His rushing ability has helped mask many of those issues over his first two seasons, totaling roughly 750 rushing yards, but that advantage could shrink after the significant ankle injury he suffered during the postseason. If Denver limits designed runs or Nix loses even a small amount of mobility, he’ll be forced to rely much more heavily on his arm, and last season’s passing metrics suggest that’s a risky bet. Jaylen Waddle gives him another talented weapon, but quarterback is simply too deep this year to invest in a player whose fantasy value depends so heavily on rushing production while carrying major efficiency concerns as a passer. At his current ADP, there are safer options with similar upside available multiple rounds later.
