Hot Take #1
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb outscore Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and DeVonta Smith Combined.
Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are a combination that often scores well together, and we haven’t seen it since early last season, before Dak went down for the season. This Cowboys defense is poised to be bad, and I mean bad, with the departure of Micah Parsons just one week ago. The offense still has juice, and I am excited to see that. Any fantasy analyst out there would not be surprised if Lamb was the number one WR in the NFL at season’s end.
Now, how do they outscore Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, and DeVonta Smith? Well, the clear outlier would be that A.J. Brown has a big game. It is a hot take, not a take where the math does not work. Barkley and Hurts, will hit their projections of about 40 points (on average depending on format and scoring settings, but DeVonta Smith has to have a poor outing, which his lack of consistency week-to-week is where the logic lies there. If Dak and Lamb are playing catch-up, there is a real possibility there for this to happen.
This could bite me hard when I say that the 7.5 point underdog outscores three out of the four main pieces of the favorite (Philly), but if there were any weakness in the Eagles’ defense, the secondary could be an issue and allow the Cowboys quarterback and number 1 receiver to shine.
I feel pretty confident that this COULD happen, but I am not saying it is extremely likely. If I had to put a number on it, it would be a 50% chance of that happening. It is not extremely hot, but definitely a take that is not expected.
Hot Take #2
Mason Taylor establishes himself as a top-5 Tight end for the rest of the season.
Mason Taylor is a six-foot-five tight end out of LSU. He was drafted by the Jets in the second round in April. With minimal hype in the offseason, he has a chance to be a legitimate fantasy tight-end this season. His draft stock has not been high whatsoever this season, and actually might be out there on waiver wires ahead of week 1.
The Jets play the Steelers in week one of the NFL season, and there are some questions about their defense and its strength after years and years of dominance. The Jets’ quarterback, Justin Fields, has enjoyed throwing to his tight ends throughout his career, and with Garrett Wilson being his only legitimate pass catcher, Taylor could be in for a very successful season.
Last year, we saw Brock Bowers take off, although he was a first-round pick, Taylor’s draft capital is no slouch either. The Jets using an early second-round pick on him means that they do firmly believe in him. Now, saying that a player with an ADP nearing the 200s is going to finish top-12 at his position failing is a tale as old as time, but it is possible.
I’m confident that Taylor could have a Bowers(ish) season, but the reality of that happening in Week one is very unlikely. I would expect that he gets a decent target share, but nothing earth-shattering over the first month of the season. I believe that the tight end pool is deep this season, indicating that this year, it could be tough for Taylor to crack the top twelve. I give this a 15% chance of happening in Week 1, but a 45% chance over the course of the season.
Hot Take #3
James Conner loses the starting gig in Week 1 to Trey Benson
James Conner losing his job this season is a take I am not shying away from this season, and I will hammer it home once again. While I think Arizona will give him the nod in week one, I do think his workload will be limited compared to the year past, and Trey Benson will have more of an opportunity to share in this offense. The Cardinals have felt stagnant in Kyler Murray’s tenure as the starting quarterback, never bottoming out, but never truly exceeding expectations either. They will need the boost.
James Conner is on the wrong side of thirty and often lacks the explosive ability that we see from elite backs like Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. His production and usage have gone up in the last two seasons, with over 200 carries and 100+ yards. This is really good efficiency with about 4.8 yards per carry. There are a lot of signs that Conner may age like a fine wine, similar to a receiver in Tampa Bay.
With Conner potentially having the Mike Evans syndrome, I could look very stupid with this take, but I do believe that (besides an injury) this is the most likely backfield to turn over based on talent. Conner will not be the featured guy all season; that is a near promise.
I am extremely confident that he will lose his starting gig to Trey Benson at some point this season, but I feel it only has a real shot in Week 1 if Conner gets injured, and we do not want to root for that. I am only 20% confident of taking this week, but in reality, 85% confident over the course of the season.
