We’re three weeks into the 2025 college football season. So far, we’ve heard Arch Manning and the Texas offense booed, watched Cade Klubnik and Clemson lose two of their first three games, and witnessed DJ Lagway throw five interceptions in a single game. Fans will tell you that the current Heisman Trophy race is lackluster compared to past seasons.
Preseason Odds
In case you cannot remember the early favorites for the 2025 Heisman Trophy…
Arch Manning
Perhaps the most common miss amongst predictions for the nation’s top players. I myself had Arch Manning in my preseason predictions for the top 10 players in college football. The story around Arch has been covered on every sports media site for the last few weeks. Many are trying to find answers as to why Arch has been such a severe disappointment. Some suggest he is hurt, playing through a shoulder injury. Others suggest that people overhyped the young quarterback.
However, it’s not just that Arch seems to be struggling with game speed. His mechanics have entirely disappeared. He’s throwing too many side-armed throws, which has led to the theory of an injury. He’s not driving his lower body. He’s not standing tall. The regression of Arch in 2025 involves much more than mental mistakes. He seems to have taken multiple steps backward mechanically.
Garrett Nussmeier
I know, LSU is 3-0, so why is Nussmeier on this list? After ranking second in the preseason Heisman odds, Nussmeier has yet to throw for more than 240 yards in either of his first three games. He’s thrown just three touchdowns while throwing two interceptions. According to PFF, he’s completing just 45.4% on passes attempted 10+ yards downfield and averaging 1.2 fewer yards per attempt than last season.
Nussmeier followed up LSU’s big win against Clemson with two subpar performances. Against Louisiana Tech, he finished 26/41, 237 yards, 5.8 yards per attempt, 1 TD, and 1 INT. He then led an LSU offense that scored just 13 offensive points on 12 possessions. He’s currently throwing for just 230 yards per game, and LSU is quickly approaching a stretch of its schedule that consists of Ole Miss, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M, and Alabama in five straight games.
Cade Klubnik
Similar to Nussmeier, Klubnik has yet to throw for more than 230 yards through three games. He’s completing just 59% of his passes while throwing for 633 yards, 3 TDs, and 3 INTs. After throwing for 3,639 yards, 36 TDs, and 6 INTs in 2024, Klubnik was at the very top of some people’s preseason Heisman rankings. Overall, his preseason ranking finished third. Now, Klubnik will be fighting for a spot on an all-conference team, much less an All-American team and a Heisman trophy.
In Clemson’s latest loss to Georgia Tech, Klubnik finished with 207 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Even while backed by a run game giving him 5+ yards per carry, Klubnik and the Clemson offense managed just 21 points. Klubnik was anemic against LSU in a week one showdown as well, completing 50% of his passes on 6.1 yards per attempt. Clemson’s season isn’t dead just yet, but the Tigers will need Klubnik to return to his 2024 self.
DJ Lagway
After displaying some of the worst quarterback play in recent college football memory in his game against LSU, Lagway’s season and future have some serious question marks. On Saturday night, Lagway posted 287 yards, 5.9 yards per attempt, 1 TD, and 5 INTs. Yes, five interceptions in one game. Lagway opened the season sitting 6th in the preseason Heisman odds. After these first three games, Lagway’s Heisman campaign is officially over.
Lagway is completing 36% of passes attempted 10+ yards downfield. He’s completed just one pass beyond 20+ yards. His deep ball was one of the main reasons for his preseason hype, though that deep ball talent seems to have faded. He now has 0 TDs and 3 INTs on deep balls this season. Barring a miracle, Napier’s future at Florida appears to be nonexistent. He had all his eggs in the DJ Lagway basket. This is an interesting development to watch for the next few months.
In recent years, I can’t remember a group of Heisman candidates that disappointed this severely. Manning, Klubnik, and Lagway are seemingly already eliminated from Heisman contention. Nussmeier can still catch fire and perform well against a tough, yet winnable, schedule.
Social media has been filled with remarks about these players. Fans are booing Arch Manning and his offense. Dabo Swinney is defending his future in front of the media, and Billy Napier might be fired within the week. If you’re a chaos seeker, college football is the place to be.
