The 2-2 New England Patriots head to western New York to try and hand the 4-0 Buffalo Bills their first loss of the season. Buffalo will be wearing their rivalry uniforms, and fans are encouraged to wear all white for a “white-out” game.
Stats to Know
Starting with the offenses, the Buffalo Bills are 2nd in the league in total yards per game (404.0), and are 2nd in points per game (33.3), while the New England Patriots are 14th in yards per game (336.3) and 11th in points per game (25.5)—a 68-yard and about an 8 point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, how do their defenses fare in this matchup? Buffalo’s defense ranks 9th in yards allowed per game (290.0), while they are shockingly low on the points allowed per game category, ranking 17th with 22.5 points allowed per game. New England, on the other hand, is 16th in yards allowed (319.0) and 10th in points allowed per game (20.3). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows 29 fewer yards and allows about 2 more points per game.
So if we take these numbers and average them out, the Bills’ offense should have around 362 total yards and about 27 points, while the Patriots’ offense should have around 313 yards and about 24 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a 3-point advantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -8.5, favoring Buffalo. The Patriots are 2-2 covering the spread, while the Bills are also 2-2 covering. Betting the Patriots at +8.5 might be too good to pass up.
Hot and Cold
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into the first matchup between these divisional rivals.
- Terrel Bernard has been consistently great for Buffalo over the past few seasons and without veteran Matt Milano alongside him, he’s been holding down the Bills’ linebacking unit strongly with 13 tackles and an interception over his last 2 games, Bernard continues to make his presence felt onto opposing offenses.
- Keon Coleman just hasn’t been having the breakout type of season we had hoped for thus far. Other than an incredible week 1 performance versus the now 1-3 Baltimore Ravens, Coleman has yet to get over 50 receiving yards in a game. Coleman needs a big game at home to hopefully turn the season around sooner rather than later.
- Drake Maye has been phenomenal over the last 3 games as he is completing 79% of his passes, combined with 8 total touchdowns and just 1 interception. Maye will need to limit turnovers against a Buffalo defense that has been forcing turnovers with 4 on the year.
- Kayshon Boutte, like Keon Coleman, had a great week 1 with over 100 yards and but over the last 3 weeks, he has been even quieter than Coleman. With just 4 receptions for 62 receiving yards, Boutte finds himself in trouble as the year 3 wideout is running out of time to solidify himself in the Patriots’ future.
Game Predictions
At this point, I have to continue to ride the James Cook train and say he will score yet another TD and continue his remarkable 2025 campaign. T.J. Sanders will also get his first career sack. Sanders has been filling a huge void on the Bills’ defensive line and has done a good job as a rookie filling in for Ed Oliver. Finally, the Bills will extend their win streak and be 5-0 heading into week 6 as they head to Atlanta for another prime time game on Monday Night Football.
Check out all of my previous articles alongside all regular season articles available here: 2025 Season Series, and make sure to use code DL10 for 10% off all memberships! Also, tune in on YouTube to view our most recent video, where we discuss our week 5 predictions and betting picks!
