Seattle Seahawks @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Stat: The Jaguars have 14 takeaways this season, the most in the NFL.
Jacksonville’s defense has consistently flipped games in its favor — and it doesn’t appear to just be luck. They rank third in EPA per dropback allowed complimented by an offensive line that has protected Trevor Lawrence exceptionally well — just six sacks in five games. —
Travis Etienne Jr is leading a ground attack averaging 137 rushing yards per game (fifth in the league). The Jaguars may favor the passing game considering the Seahawks are only allowing 83 rushing yards per game.
On the other side, the Seahawks’ offense has been far more efficient throwing versus running (.28 EPA per pass vs. -0.07 EPA per rush).
Los Angles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
Stat: Dolphins‘ defense has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
Miami’s defense is getting gashed on the ground, giving up the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs and 3.2 yards before contact per carry, the second-worst mark in the NFL. The Dolphins’ questionable defense works in favor a Chargers offense that ranks fifth in yards before contact per carry (3.0) and an injury riddled offensive line.
The Chargers are their own worst enemy racking up 24 penalties in the past two weeks, the most ever for a Jim Harbaugh–coached team over such a span. Be mindful of pass protection issues from Joe Alt’s stand-in Austin Deculus who has a 69% pass block win rate (last among tackles) along with three sacks allowed in two games.
Tagovailoa’s 10 touchdown passes (3rd in the NFL) and turnover-free play over the last two weeks are worth noting despite Miami’s 1–4 start. McDaniel’s Dolphins are just 3–14 vs. teams with winning records.
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs
Stat: Each of the Chiefs’ three defeats this season have come with one-score outcomes.
Every time the Chiefs have lost this season, it’s been by a single score — Kansas City’s offense and Patrick Mahomes, keep games competitive even when efficiency dips. Competitive may not be enough for a win but could prove useful for fantasy production.
The Lions’ defense ranks among the league’s toughest against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, which makes Isiah Pacheco a volume-dependent play. However, Detroit’s secondary has been giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to wide receivers. I like the myriad of Chiefs’ pass catchers in this matchup.
Detroit’s Aidan Hutchinson leads the NFL in sacks (8.0) and pressures (20), and his ability to disrupt Mahomes may determine where the ball lands.
Chicago Bears @ Washington Commanders
Stat: Chicago ranks fourth with a 69% pass block win rate.
The Chicago Bears’ offensive line has quietly turned into an efficient pass-protecting unit, ranking fourth with a 69% pass block win rate. That transformation starts inside with Joe Thuney, who ranks third among guards in PBWR.
On the edge, Darnell Wright’s leap from 44th to 12th among tackles (92% PBWR) has given the Bears consistency at right tackle. Chicago has also boosted its play-action rate from 19% to 27%, helping to slow down opposing pass rushes.
Washington may decide to go for a win on the ground. The Commanders lead the NFL with 156.4 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per carry, while Chicago ranks near the bottom in nearly every run defense metric, including 31st in yards allowed (164.5) and last in yards per carry (6.1).
Jacory Crosket Merritt facing a Chicago defense that wins just 27% of its run stops can help dominate time of possession — testing Chicago’s offense when forced into predictable passing situations.
