The Black Friday showdown between the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles is shaping up to be a great matchup. Both teams are leading their division races and have flaws that have prevented them from being dominant this year. Below, I’ll explain who you can trust in your lineups, who should stay on the bench, and which players fall into that tricky gray area for Thursday night.
Lock Them into Your Lineup
- Jalen Hurts QB (PHI)
- Saquon Barkley RB (PHI)
Strong Starts
Rome Odunze WR (CHI)
Rome Odunze has become a risky fantasy play heading into Week 13 due to his declining consistency, volatile usage, and a challenging matchup. Despite ranking as the WR22 in fantasy points per game and earning a strong 22.4% target share with 1.94 yards per route run, his production has dipped sharply as Chicago’s offense has spread the ball around. He’s posted fewer than four receptions and under 55 yards in five of his last seven games, managing just one touchdown in that span while averaging only 9.1 fantasy points per game since Week 6—pacing toward WR51 numbers. Although he leads the Bears with ten red-zone targets and 22 deep targets, those high-value looks haven’t translated into steady scoring. Chicago’s renewed emphasis on the run game has also reduced Odunze’s weekly ceiling. His early-season surge hinted at elite upside, but his recent downturn paints a clearer picture of a player struggling to command stable fantasy value.
The matchup this week against the Eagles, who rank 10th in pass defense DVOA, is a bit more appealing than you may believe for receivers. They have allowed the 10th-most receiving yards this season and the third-most since Week 7—particularly to perimeter receivers—Odunze’s ability to capitalize on this matchup feels likely. Their defense has tightened inside the red zone, but they continue to be vulnerable deep—exactly where Odunze thrives. His big-play ability pairs well with a matchup that forces Chicago to throw more than usual, especially if Caleb Williams can stay composed against pressure. With Chicago likely needing to push the ball vertically to keep pace, Odunze is set up for one of his better outings. He profiles as a confident WR2 with legitimate WR1 upside this week and should be started in all formats.
AJ Brown WR (PHI)
A.J. Brown put together a vintage performance in Week 12, posting 8 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown on 10 targets. Despite a turbulent season defined by public frustration with his role, Brown has now earned double-digit targets in back-to-back games. Across 10 contests, he has totaled 46 receptions, 567 yards, and four touchdowns on 75 targets. His recent surge suggests that he and Jalen Hurts may finally be reestablishing chemistry at the right time. Brown maintains a 25.7% target share, 56.7 receiving yards per game, and a dominant 35% first-read share in this offense. He also still leads the team with 10 red-zone targets this season.
Chicago has improved defensively; they have allowed the 9th fewest points to perimeter receivers over the last five weeks and returned Jaylon Johnson from IR. The Bears still allow chunk yards on the perimeter and struggle to defend deep passing. With his role stabilizing, Brown remains a must-start fantasy option entering Week 13. The Bears utilize single-high coverage at the 13th highest rate this season, and Brown has historically seen increased usage against that coverage with his 40% 1st read share this season against that coverage. Lock Brown into your lineup with confidence this week.
DeVonta Smith WR (PHI)
DeVonta Smith enters Week 13 with a strong start status thanks to elite usage, expanding opportunity, and a matchup tailor-made for his skill set. Even while managing chest and shoulder issues early in the week, Smith is coming off a monster performance—six catches on 11 targets for 89 yards—and has now scored 14+ fantasy points in four of his last five games. He’s quietly been one of the most efficient receivers in football, ranking as the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 25.6% target share, 68.5 receiving yards per game, 2.18 yards per route run, and a commanding 31.4% first-read share. Smith leads the Eagles with 17 deep targets and continues to win downfield, giving him week-breaking upside in any competitive game script.
The matchup against Chicago only strengthens his case, as the Bears have struggled badly against receivers for over a month. Since Week 7, Chicago has allowed the eighth-most PPR points per target to slot receivers and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to wideouts overall. Their defense has also surrendered the fourth-most receiving touchdowns and the fourth-most deep receiving yards since Week 8—an ideal setup for a player with Smith’s vertical usage. Smith profiles as a confident WR2 this week and should be started everywhere.
Dallas Goedert TE (PHI)
Dallas Goedert enters Week 13 as the TE10 in fantasy points per game, but his production has been trending downward for weeks. He has failed to top 8.3 fantasy points in three straight contests and has seen a declining role in the passing game. Goedert owns a 17.8% target share, but his per-game averages of 37.6 receiving yards and 1.36 yards per route run reflect his limited ceiling when he is not finding the end zone. Over his last five games, Goedert is averaging fewer than four targets per contest, making touchdown-dependent scoring his clearest path to fantasy relevance. Philadelphia funnels the majority of its passing work through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, leaving Goedert third in the pecking order, but that will change with the matchup this week.
Still, the Bears have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to tight ends this season. Chicago has also surrendered 10+ fantasy points to seven different tight ends, including five since Week 6. The Bears will be down their three starting linebackers, only making the matchup even better than the numbers suggest. Goedert has been great around the red zone with the 2nd most targets in that area among tight ends. The matchup gives Goedert a shot to return to TE1 production this week, and he could win some weeks with his performance this week.
Players to Sit
D’Andre Swift RB (CHI)
D’Andre Swift enters Week 13 as one of fantasy’s riskiest RB options after a miserable performance in Week 12. He totaled just 15 rushing yards on eight carries and added only one catch for 14 yards while also losing a fumble. More concerning, Swift played fewer snaps than rookie Kyle Monangai for the first time this season. Monangai has now scored in three straight games while Swift has failed to find the end zone during that same span. Since Week 10, Swift has averaged 16 touches per game but has seen his snap share fall and his efficiency crater. Swift’s snap rate dropped to 41% last week as Monangai handled the bulk of red-zone work with five attempts to Swift’s one.
Philadelphia is an awful matchup for runners, allowing the second-lowest explosive run rate and fifth-fewest rushing yards since Week 8. Philadelphia’s defense has allowed just two total touchdowns to running backs in the last five games as well. The matchup is tough, but the usage uncertainty has me more concerned. I am not sure if Swift reverts back to 60-65% of snaps or plays less than 50% of snaps this week. His upside this week is severely capped with this role against a tough defense. With declining usage and a brutal matchup, Swift is extremely difficult to trust. Managers should avoid starting him unless desperate in Week 13.
Kyle Monangai RB (CHI)
Kyle Monangai is coming off another strong fantasy performance, posting 12 carries for 48 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh. After Swift’s early fumble, Monangai operated as the clear early-down option and handled most of the goal-line work. He has now scored a rushing touchdown in three straight weeks, cementing himself as a rising piece in Chicago’s offense. Over the season, the rookie has totaled 461 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 99 carries. Since Week 10, Monangai has averaged 10.6 touches per game with a 43.4% snap rate and minimal receiving involvement.
Even with the increased opportunity, Monangai still holds a low 1.9% target share, making him largely touchdown-dependent. Among qualified runners, he ranks 21st in yards after contact per attempt and 27th in explosive run rate. Unfortunately, the Eagles have allowed the sixth-lowest rushing success rate and have smothered opposing rushers all season. Monangai will likely need another short touchdown to salvage fantasy value. Given the matchup and uncertain usage distribution, he profiles as a sit for Week 13.
DJ Moore WR (CHI)
DJ Moore bounced back in Week 12, catching five passes for 64 yards and two touchdowns in a strong outing against Pittsburgh. Despite the performance, Moore has been one of fantasy’s most inconsistent wideouts in 2025. He enters Week 13 as the WR41 in points per game, averaging just 44.1 receiving yards with a modest 15.3% target share. Moore ranks second on the team in deep targets, but his volatile target share has turned in a down season. Moore has seen five or fewer targets in seven of his 11 games, offering one of the least reliable usage profiles among fantasy-relevant receivers.
While the Eagles have a strong defense overall, they have allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers over the last five weeks. The concern for me continues with the volatile role and his TD dependability. If Moore does not find the end zone, he only has 1 game over 12 points, and the Eagles have only allowed two touchdowns over the last four games. With no teams on bye, fantasy managers should have safer, more consistent alternatives. Moore is playable, but he is best avoided if lineup depth allows.
Colston Loveland TE (CHI)
Colston Loveland has emerged as a key weapon in Chicago’s offense. Last week, he posted 49 yards and a touchdown on five targets. He has posted 23 receptions for 324 yards and three touchdowns over his last six games. The rookie has played at least 60% of the snaps in each of those contests and continues to grow into a full-time role. Loveland ranks third among tight ends in PPR scoring over that time and has finally leapfrogged Cole Kmet in snaps. His athleticism and ability to win downfield make him one of the more appealing options at the position to close the season and in dynasty. However, Week 13 presents a brutal matchup for Loveland as he looks to continue his hot streak.
Despite the impressive efficiency in a growing role, Philadelphia’s defense severely limits tight end usage by forcing quarterbacks to work outside the numbers. Only one tight end has scored more than 11.1 fantasy points against the Eagles this season, and they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to the position this year. Loveland is trending upward long-term, but this matchup is one of the worst possible for a tight end with one of the lower floors at the position. With a tough matchup, it is best to avoid Colston Loveland this week and stream elsewhere.
Luther Burden WR (CHI)
Luther Burden III has begun carving out a more consistent role in the Bears’ offense over the past three weeks. The rookie wideout has posted nine catches for 124 yards on 13 targets in that span, showing improved chemistry with Caleb Williams. Burden appears to be overtaking Olamide Zaccheaus for the WR3 role, playing 66 snaps to Zaccheaus’s 33 over the last two games. Burden has operated as Chicago’s primary slot receiver with a 56.8% route share and a 14.9% target share. His big-play ability has flashed multiple times this year, even if his overall opportunity has been limited. Through 10 games, Burden has totaled 22 receptions for 295 yards and one touchdown.
Philadelphia has been elite against slot receivers, allowing the second-fewest PPR points per target since Week 7. They have also surrendered the tenth-fewest receiving yards to slot wideouts over that stretch. This matchup significantly caps Burden’s chances at a useful fantasy performance. While Burden is a great long-term stash on your bench, he should remain on benches in Week 13 unless you are desperate in deeper leagues.
On the Fence
Caleb Williams QB (CHI)
Caleb Williams is coming off a strong Week 12 outing with 239 yards and three passing touchdowns in a win over the Steelers. While he avoided interceptions, his one major mistake, a fumble in the end zone, highlighted the volatility that has characterized his second season. Among 45 qualified passers, he ranks 36th in highly accurate throw rate and 40th in catchable target rate. Still, Williams has topped 21.5 fantasy points in three of his last four games, offering a strong ceiling when things click. His rushing ability provides a weekly floor boost, with at least 20 rushing yards in seven games this year. Williams’ mix of being in a Ben Johnson offense, paired with his rushing upside, is what has propelled him into QB1 territory despite the inconsistency.
Despite the positives, this week’s matchup is concerning as the Eagles have shut down opposing quarterbacks at home. Only one quarterback has scored more than 17.9 points in Philadelphia this season. Philadelphia’s defense has been a buzzsaw over the last five weeks, allowing the third-fewest passing touchdowns and the seventh-lowest passer rating. The Eagles have also produced the fifth-best pressure rate over that stretch, presenting a major challenge to the Bears’ offensive line. Williams remains a low-end QB1, but expectations should be more conservative than usual in this tough matchup.
