Now or never, the Bills head to Foxborough with a chance to stay in the race for the AFC East. A loss would mean Buffalo’s 5 straight division title streak would come to an end. A win, on the other hand, puts Buffalo just one game behind the Patriots with three games left heading into week 16.
Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills are 2nd in the league in total yards per game (383.7) and are 5th in points per game (28.9). The New England Patriots are 8th in yards per game (362.6). The Patriots are also 7th in points per game (27.0)—a 21-yard difference and about a 2-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 10th in yards allowed per game (307.1). The Bills rank 14th with 22.5 points allowed per game. New England, on the other hand, is 7th in the league through 14 weeks in yards allowed (296.4) and 5th in points allowed per game (18.5). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 11 more yards than the Patriots and allows 4 more points per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 340 total yards and about 24 points, while the Patriots’ offense should have around 335 yards and about 25 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a minuscule 1-point disadvantage but a small 5-yard advantage overall, with the Vegas line being -1.5, surprisingly favoring Buffalo. The Patriots are 9-4 covering the spread, while the Bills are 6-7 covering. Betting the Bills at -1.5 is risky, but I think betting the Bills moneyline in a matchup that may very well come down to just a point could be worth it.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this matchup.
- Christian Benford is questionable for Sunday’s game, but he’s coming off back-to-back games where he’s scored a defensive touchdown and shut down Ja’Marr Chase last week. Benford‘s presence will surely be missed if Buffalo is without their star CB.
- Â Khalil Shakir has been invisible the past two weeks, only bringing in 3 receptions for 21 yards and a TD. Shakir needs to make plays; the Bills’ Super Bowl hopes rely on their receiving core stepping up, and that starts with Shakir.
- Drake Maye has yet to have a 300-yard game, but Maye consistently has been a key reason for the turnaround in New England, from 4-13 last season to 11-2 currently. Drake Maye will pass for at least 200 yards and play disciplined football. Buffalo needs to force a turnover early to disrupt Mayes’ momentum.
- Stefon Diggs has been irrelevant for the past two weeks, like Shakir. Diggs only has 5 receptions for 46 yards. If Benfords put, look for rookie Maxwell Hairston to be matched up with the former Buffalo Bill.
Game Predictions
The Buffalo Bills find a way to win in Foxborough and keep their division hopes alive, 24-23 over the Patriots. Maxwell Hairston’s youth and athleticism are enough to shut Stefon Diggs down. Dalton Kincaid breaks 100 receiving yards for the first time since week 9.
A Look Ahead
Buffalo travels to Cleveland and faces off against rookie QB Shedeur Sanders. The Bills then host the Philadelphia Eagles, and finally, in what could be the last game at Highmark Stadium, the Bills host the New York Jets in week 18.
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