A week removed from UFC 326, fights return to the APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. Main evening the return to Sin City is two top-15 featherweights in Josh Emmett and Kevin Vallejos. Sprinkled throughout the card are three UFC debuts, as well as two other ranked bouts. Here’s who will leave the APEX winners and the best way to cash your ticket.
(All bet lines are by DraftKings)
Featherweight Bout: (11) Josh Emmett vs. (14) Kevin Vallejos
Josh Emmett enters this main event 1-4 in his last five fights. His opponents have been tough to say the least: Youssef Zalal, Lerone Murphy, Ilia Topuria, and Yair Rodriguez (for the featherweight title). Emmett does have big shot stuff, having landed 12 knockdowns across 17 UFC fights. In his most recent win against Bryce Mitchell, all it took was a clean shot to put his lights out.
He’s matched up against a powerful, clean striker in Kevin Vallejos. Vallejos enters this contest 17-1, with his only loss taking place on his first fight on Dana White’s Contender Series to current No. 6 Jean Silva. Since then, he’s cleaned up, picking up six wins, including five by finish, with his last bout against Giga Chikadze ending when Vallejos landed a spinning back fist.
Emmett is a veteran and has faced a handful of great fighters who have come through this weight class. Vallejos has been quickly working his way up the rankings, and this can be a great test to see if his fast rise has been warranted.
Prediction: Kevin Vallejos (-550)
Best Bet: Vallejos -13.5 (-180)
Women’s Strawweight Bout: (5) Amanda Lemos vs. (8) Gillian Robertson
If you just looked at Amanda Lemos’ last five fights, you’d be confused as to why she’s ranked fifth in the weight class. Take a closer look, and you’ll see why. The three losses are to Zhang Weili (former champion and current No. 1), Virna Jandiroba (No. 3), and Tatiana Suarez (No. 2). She’s a very accurate striker and can find a knockout if you give her a window (eight knockout wins).
Gillian Robertson looks to continue to climb the rankings. It’s been since 2023 since she’s finished a fight by submission, but she’s scored nine victories by that method. She lands almost three takedowns per fight and can finish it in multiple ways. The aforementioned submission has been her calling card, but in her most recent bout, she took Marina Rodriguez to the mat before finishing the fight with ground and pound.
Despite Lemos being a more technical striker, Robertson has better numbers in the striking game, landing more significant strikes per minute (2.86 to 2.75), while absorbing less strikes (2.86 to 3.24).
Prediction: Gillian Robertson (-195)
Best Bet: Gillian Robertson -1.5 Round 1 (-120)
Light Heavyweight: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy
Ion Cutelaba enters Saturday on the heels of a questionable split decision loss to Modestas Bukauskas. In that bout, in which he outstruck Bukauskas 121-52 (58-44 significant strikes) and had more cage control. The judges scored it 30-27, 29-28 Bukauskas, and 30-27 Cutelaba. Besides that, Cutelaba is a good fighter. He’s found 15 first-round finishes, lands over four significant strikes per minute and averages almost four takedowns per fight.
Oumar Sy bounced back after losing to Alonzo Menifield, picking up a first-round knockout. He hasn’t been taken down in his UFC career. Pair that with his defending 70% of his opponents’ strikes, while landing 3.67 significant strikes per minute, it’s easy to understand why the French fighter is 12-1.
Sy does enter this fight with a two-year age advantage and with an eight-inch reach advantage. Despite that, Cutelaba will keep coming forward, and if Sy is timid like he was against Menifield, it’s very possible he drops his second professional fight.
Prediction: Ion Cutelaba (+210)
Best Bet: Fight to Not Start Round 3 (-130)
Featherweight Bout: Andre Fili vs. Jose Miguel Delgado
Across his last eight fights, Andre Fili has teetered back-and-forth with wins and losses, having most recently won against Christian Rodriguez. With that, four of his last five wins have come by split decision. Despite this, Fili can land a good number of takedowns. He does throw strikes a bit recklessly (37%), while absorbing over four strikes per minute.
Jose Miguel Delgado is looking to return to the win column after losing to Nathaniel Wood. In that fight, both he and Wood landed knockdowns. Wood landed 2/3 takedown attempts, but Delgado did lead in control time and striking. In his wins, he’s yet to hear the final horn, having picked up six knockouts and four submissions.
He has an arsenal of ways to pick up a knockout, having both his most recent win against Hyder Amil and his Dana White’s Contender Series knockouts come from straight knees, while his win over Connor Matthews came from a right hook, followed by ground and pound. He throws plenty of big shots and throws the volume that could lead to an early ending.
Prediction: Jose Miguel Delgado (-380)
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-195)
Featherweight Bout: Marwin Rahiki vs. Harry Hardwick
After a second-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series, Marwan Rahiki gets his shot in the UFC, taking on Harry Hardwick. In that fight, Rahiki was knocked down twice but also managed to survive, land two knockdowns of his own, and clinch the win. His style of fighting is pressuring with big shots, leading to finish wins in all of his seven wins.
Harry Harwick looks to bounce back after his UFC debut loss, in which the referee had to jump in after having his legs chopped down by Kauê Fernandes. Hardwick can take a good share of abuse and continue to keep going. You don’t pick up 13 wins without that trait.
Rahiki is going to search for an early win. Hardwick is going to want to find a way to extend this fight by any means necessary. Rahiki can definitely get popped, so if Hardwick can weather the storm, he could grab a late-round or decision victory.
Prediction: Marwan Rahiki (-258)
Best Bet: Rahiki by KO (+130)
Heavyweight Bout: Vitor Petrino (15) vs. Steven Asplund
Vitor Petrino is a great athlete, with just two blemishes on his career. Looking at his submission loss to Anthony Smith, Petrino was attempting a takedown, to which Smith latched onto a guillotine choke. As for the loss to Dustin Jacoby, the judges had it tied at 19-19 through two rounds. Besides those losses, he is great at taking down his opponents (3.04 takedowns per fight) and can find finishes in numerous different ways (eight knockouts, two submissions)
Steven Asplund throws bombs. In his most recent win against Sean Sharaf, Asplund landed 170 significant strikes in under nine minutes of fight time. That is his style of fight, trying to find the finish early, similarly to Petrino. Of his eight professional fights, only two have reached the third round.
As is the case for the heavyweight division, the later the fight goes, the quicker the fighters gas out. That could be the one knock on Petrino in this fight.
Prediction: Vitor Petrino (-250)
Best Bet: Vitor Petrino -1.5 Round 1 (-140)
Flyweight Bout: (14) Charles Johnson vs. (15) Bruno Silva
Charles Johnson is in a bounce-back spot after suffering a knockout loss to Alex Perez at UFC 324. This was the first time in his professional career that he was finished in a fight. However, Johnson is a great fighter, plain and simple. He beat current champion Joshua Van and No. 6 Lone’er Kavanagh by knockout. He’s an active striker, landing about 4.7 strikes.
On the other side, Bruno Silva was knocked out by Van, as well as No. 2 Manel Kape. Besides that, Silva is a good grappler and can land big shots. Across his last seven fights, all of which have ended before the final horn, to which Silva is 5-2. With that, Silva can work deep into fights, as seven of his 10 UFC bouts have entered the third round.
Both could be in the twilight of their careers, but with both sitting within the top-15 in the weight class, this could be their last shot to try and climb the rankings.
Prediction: Charles Johnson (-180)
Best Bet: Fight Not to go to Finish (-150)
Middleweight Bout: Brad Tavares vs. Eryk Anders
Both fighters enter the octagon at 38 years old, coming off knockout losses. Brad Tavares has faced some of the best in the middleweight division, having lost to Dricus Du Plessis, Israel Adesanya, Robert Whittaker, and Bruno Silva.
He’s a true veteran in the division. Across his last five fights, and eight of his last nine fights, he’s forced the third round to start. He defends the takedown well (81%), while landing more significant strikes (3.42) than he absorbs (3.36).
Eryk Anders is someone who tries to outmuscle his opponents. He has been knocked down in each of his last four fights. He’s going to want to wrestle, though he shoots inaccurately (24% takedown accuracy). It could turn into both fighters just throwing like their lives depend on it, or it could just be a sloppy fight from start to finish.
Prediction: Brad Tavares (-125)
Best Bet: Fight Not to go the distance (+105)
Welterweight Bout: Chris Curtis vs. Myktybek Orolbai
After picking up a split decision win against Max Griffin, Chris Curtis remains at welterweight to take on up-and-coming Myktkbek Orolbai. Though most of his numbers are based on his performances at middleweight, Curtis is a good all-around fighter. He lands a hefty amount of strikes and he defends the takedown at an 82% clip.
As for Orolbai, he can control a fight however he wants. He’s landed two or more takedowns in four of his five UFC fights, with the only fight to not meet that line coming in his first-round knockout win against Jack Hermansson. Along with that knockout win, Orolbai can find finishes early, having nine first-round wins.
Curtis can keep this fight on the feet, which would favor him with the Las Vegas judges. He does absorb more shots than he lands, but he has proven time and time again that all it takes is one shot or a clean combination to pick up a big-time knockout (17 in his career).
Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai (-278)
Best Bet: Chris Curtis +5.5 (-125)
Lightweight Bout: Bolaji Oki vs. Manoel Sousa
After a third-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series over Cristian Perez, Manoel Sousa makes his debut against Bolaji Oki. Sousa has heavy hands, as he’s picked up eight knockout wins. As well, he has a great gas tank, so if the fight goes deep, he could pick up a late finish, whether he’s ahead or behind.
As for Oki, he has the ability to end fights early. He lands over 6.5 significant strikes per minute. With that, his fights can get ended early as well, especially against a guy like Sousa. He absorbs over five significant strikes per minute. He doesn’t have to worry about Sousa taking the fight to the ground, but Oki could if that’s how he wants to pace the fight.
Oki’s two UFC losses have come by finish, most recently being knocked out by Mason Jones. Even still in that fight, he was able to land a knockdown against Jones. Oki does need to find an early finish, because wear and tear doesn’t play as much against Sousa as it would against other fighters.
Prediction: Manoel Sousa
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (+150)
Bantamweight Bout: Luan Lacerda vs. Hecher Sosa
From one debut to another, Hechor Sosa enters Saturday facing Luan Lacerda. Sosa earned this fight from a dominating win on Dana White’s Contender Series, in which he picked up a unanimous decision over Mackson Lee. In that fight, he landed four of his 11 takedowns and had control for almost 11 minutes.
As for Lacerda, after back-to-back losses and a two-year layoff to open his UFC career, he bounced back with a big-time submission win over Saimon Oliveira. Both can and will shoot the takedown. As for striking, the advantage goes to Lacerda. He’s had those exchanges in the UFC and is able to land strikes in volume.
Sosa has been able to find a finish in nine of his 14 wins, including the previous five fights before the contender series bout. Lacerda isn’t unfamiliar with ending a fight early, having 11 of his 13 victories come by submission.
Prediction: Luan Lacerda (+195)
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-130)
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Bia Mesquita vs. Montserrat Rendon
Bia Mesquita returns to the octagon after picking up a submission victory in her UFC debut. She only needed just over seven minutes to submit Irina Alekseeva. Across her professional career, Mesquita is yet to see a third round, winning five of her six contests by submission or knockout, with the other fight result in a DQ win for her.
She’s facing off against Montserrat Rendon, who has never had a fight end before the final horn. And this method had worked for her, having a professional record of 7-1. In her last fight, she went 0/5 on takedown attempts, but was able to outstrike Alice Pereira and pick up a split decision victory.
In her three UFC fights, she’s attempted five or more takedowns, though that might not be the strategy here. Mesquita is a phenomenal grappler and is going to be searching for that submission. Rendon hasn’t conceded a takedown yet, so defending Mesquita’s advances (4.15 takedowns per fight) is going to be a challenge. But, if the underdog wants to pick up the win, she’ll have to keep this fight standing up and force this fight to go deep.
Prediction: Bia Mesquita (-550)
Best Bet: Over 1.5 Rounds (-210)
Bantamweight Bout: Elijah Smith vs. SuYoung You
Elijah Smith enters the octagon on the heels of a big-time knockout win against Toshiomi Kazama. Kazama was trying to lock in a triangle submission, to which Smith countered with a knockout slam to the mat. He’s found the finish in his professional career six times, with four of those wins taking place in round one.
He takes on Suyoung You, who is a wrestler through and through. In his first two UFC fights, he landed seven of his 15 takedown attempts. However, in his most recent bout, You didn’t land a takedown on six attempts and was outstruck by Xiao Long, yet was still crowned the winner.
You is going to shoot the takedown as much as he can, which could get through to Smith, who only defends the takedown about 57% of the time. Smith can land a good bit of takedowns, but he’s better suited for this fight to stay on the feet. He lands nearly 4.5 significant strikes per minute, to which You defends opponents’ shots well (70%).
Prediction: Elijah Smith (-198)
Best Bet: Elijah Smith -1.5 Round 1 Spread (-120)
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Piera Rodriguez vs. Sam Hughes
To open up the card, we have a rematch from four years ago. In the first contest, Piera Rodriguez was able to pick up the unanimous decision win over Sam Hughes. Since then, Rodriguez has had four fights, going 2-2, including back-to-back decision wins. For Hughes, she’s followed her loss with a 4-1 record, including being on a three-fight win streak, most recently submitting Shauna Bannon.
The first time around, Rodriguez has Hughes’ number, landing five of 11 takedown attempts. Despite this, she only had top control for just under two minutes. Rodriguez did lead in striking as well, landing 83 significant strikes to Hughes’ 69. If Rodriguez can reuse the script from the first time around, she will pick up a similar result.
Since that fight, in Hughes’ next five fights, she’s only been taken down six times on 23 attempts. She wants this fight to stay on the feet. If she can do that, she has a good chance to win the striking game and can very much get revenge for the first fight.
Prediction: Sam Hughes (+136)
Best Bet: Sam Hughes Moneyline (+136)
