This year marks 152 years of the ‘Race for the Roses,’ which will take place this Saturday, May 2nd, 2026, for the Kentucky Derby.
It’s often called “the most exciting two minutes in sports,” and for good reason: an entire week of festivities builds up to a race that’s over almost as quickly as it begins, making it one of the fastest, most intense moments in all of sports. It is also one of, if not the biggest, fields in any horse race out there, and this year there are currently 20 horses and 4 also-eligible horses.
This is the second year I have been overly involved in betting on the Derby, with 2025 being the first, but I have placed a couple of win bets in Derbies before that.
Let’s go back to the 2021 Kentucky Derby, where I placed a brazen $25 win bet on Medina Spirit and saw it come through, only for the horse to be stripped of the win a short time later due to a failed drug test. Nonetheless, I won the bet and the $325 payout, but an unfortunate outcome for Bob Baffert and team.
Going back to the 2025 Kentucky Derby, I came across Mike Somich on VSiN and decided to tail his superfecta bet, which was as follows: 8,18/8,14,18/3,8,14,18,21/3,8,14,18,21. Somich has another heave for this year’s race, and you can find that at VSiN.
Given the field size, anything can happen, and the next person’s predictions are as good as yours, and then the next person after that. Bear with me this year, as I took an angle from last year’s results and am going to try to apply it to this year, using the Beyer grade to narrow down the horses that I like.
However, since you’re reading this, I will give you what horses I like, why I like them, some longshots, and how you can make some wagers and hopefully money for summer vacation.
Kentucky Derby: 1. Renegade (4-1)
The favorite in this year’s race is Renegade at 4-1; he drew the dreaded #1 pole position. The #1 pole position last had a winner in 1986 in Ferdinand and an INTM horse in 2017 with Lookin at Lee. This horse comes in with a Beyer score of 98, and has a record of 3-1-1 (1st-2nd-3rd) on a dirt fast track in its racing career.
Kentucky Derby: 6. Commandment (6-1)
The next horse is Commandment, who comes in at a tied for second 6-1 betting odds. Commandment’s Beyer score is 101, and he has a record of 4-0-0 on a dirt fast track in his racing career. I believe this horse has an additional edge in being trained by the famed and successful Brad Cox.
Kentucky Derby: 8. So Happy (15-1)
So Happy drew pole position #8 and sits at 15-1 odds. He is trained by another famous and successful trainer, Mark Glatt, who lost his wife to heart failure on February 12. This has a feel-good story written all over it, and So Happy has a Beyer score of 100 along with a record of 3-0-1 on a dirt fast track. Keep your eyes peeled for So Happy to emerge a victor after this two-minute hustle, especially being jockeyed by the 60-year-old legend in Mike Smith.
Kentucky Derby: 9. The Puma (10-1)
Sitting in pole position #9 is The Puma, and this horse has a Beyer score of 100. The Puma’s record on dirt fast track is 1-2-1. His sire, Essential Quality, won the Belmont Stakes in 2021 and surely passes down a champion bloodline to The Puma.
Kentucky Derby: 12. Chief Wallabee (8-1)
Chief Wallabee sits at pole position #12 and has a Beyer score of 100, much like So Happy and The Puma. Chief Wallabee’s record on a dirt fast track in his career is 1-1-1, and is trained by legend Bill Mott and jockeyed by Junior Alvarado, which should give this horse an edge.
Kentucky Derby: 14. Potente (20-1)
The next horse on my list is Potente at 20-1 odds. Potente has a Beyer score of 95 and a career record on a dirt fast track of 2-1-0. He is trained by the Godfather of horse racing, Bob Baffert, who is still seeking a redemption win from that 2021 Derby.
Kentucky Derby: 15. Emerging Market (15-1)
Emerging Market emerges as the #15 pole position runner in this race at 15-1 odds. He has a Beyer score of 97 and a career record on a dirt fast track of 2-0-0 and a career record at this distance of 1-0-0. He is jockeyed by Flavien Prat, which gives him a major edge, according to Chris Fallica.
Kentucky Derby: 18. Further Ado (6-1)
Last but not least on my list is Further Ado at 6-1 odds and the highest Beyer score in the field at 106. His career record on a dirt fast track is 3-1-1. Further Ado is also trained by Brad Cox, like Commandment.
Kentucky Derby: Longshots and My Top Horses
- Danon Bourbon at 20-1 odds.
- Wonder Dean at 30-1 odds.
- Pavlovian at 30-1 odds.
- Six Speed at 50-1 odds.
My top three horses from my list above are as follows:
- Further Ado
- Commandment
- So Happy
- Potente
Kentucky Derby: How to write up your tickets
You can wager on absolutely any horse, anyway you would like to; however, this is how I will incorporate my list above into a superfecta. My superfecta ticket will be $90 and look like this:
6,18/6,8,9,18/6,8,9,12,18/1,6,8,9,12,14,15,18.
Good luck to everyone wagering on the race(s) and even the day before for the Kentucky Oaks as well!
Be sure also to keep an eye out for my Stanley Cup Playoff Round 2 Betting Guide, coming soon!
