My MLB 2026 bold predictions fuse into 15 breakouts and 15 regressions. Which all-stars fall into irrelevancy? Who emerges into stardom? I compiled an in-depth look at advanced metrics to formulate a list of players’ analysis essential to any fan looking to stay ahead in 2026.
Players Making a Big Jump
Daylen Lile WSH
Daylen Lile is my pick to click for 2026. Of every single hitter in the MLB last year, guess who led the league in xBA? Juan Soto? Aaron Judge? Maybe even Bo Bichette? What if I told you it was Daylen Lile? What if I also told you Daylen Lile had the same sprint speed in 2025 as Elly de la Cruz? Alongside Dylan Crews and James Wood, Daylen Lile rounds out the most exciting young outfield in baseball. I’m going to make a really hot take here: Daylen Lile will hit .310 with a .900 OPS and 20 HR and 20 SB in 2026. Remember the name.
Samuel Basallo BAL
Samuel Basallo is lined up to explode in 2026. Though he came into the league last year and struggled to make consistent contact, Basallo has been a quick learner his entire career. Only 21 years old, Basallo shot through the minors with relative ease, giving us no reason to suspect bat-to-ball issues to persist. Prediction: Basallo hits at least .250 with 30 HR.
Caleb Durbin BOS
Recently acquired by the Red Sox, Caleb Durbin should slide in at 3rd Base to replace Alex Bregman. Durbin actually profiles as a very similar player to Bregman, as both strike out at extremely low rates and square the ball up a lot (both 95th percentile or above). I believe Durbin is on the Bregman path so much so that my prediction is an exact repeat of Bregman’s sophomore season: .284 BA, 19 HR, 17 SB, and a 4.3 WAR.
Matt Wallner MIN
Matt Wallner swings very hard. With an average of a 76.6mph bat speed, good for the 96th percentile, Wallner has serious juice. The downfall of these types of twitchy, all-or-nothing hitters is their ability to get on base. Oneil Cruz and Jo Adell are good examples of this mold. Why do I think Wallner is going to surprise us in 2026? Wallner, though he struggles to get hits consistently, finds his way on base at a decent clip. Wallner drew walks last year in the 88th percentile, showcasing his ability to put together good at-bats. Prediction: Wallner meanders his way to a .900 OPS in 2026.
Jorge Alcalá TOR
Bad performance compounded last year for Jorge Alcala. Now at 30 years old, coming off a 6.22 ERA in 2025, this is a make-or-break year for Alcala. The Blue Jays signed Alcala to a minor league deal, leaving Alcala desperate for success. Alcala needs to stick to his fastball and slider. His best years have come when 75% or more of his pitches are either his 4-seam fastball or slider. His down years? All overcomplicating his repertoire. Last year, he only threw 61% of his pitches as fastballs or sliders. I think Alcala has a bounce-back year (sub-3.50 ERA) and throws 75% fastballs/sliders.
Players Upticking Their Production
Ben Rice NYY
Ben Rice is the best platoon player in the MLB. In only his second year, Rice produced 26 HR and an OPS over .800. The funniest part about Rice’s success is that his production was well below expected. His xBA was .283, and his xSLG was .557, good for landing Rice in the 94th and 97th percentile, respectively. Rice will improve on his numbers from last year. I expect 30 HR to go along with a .900 OPS from Rice in 2026.
Kyle Stowers MIA
Kyle Stowers has juice in his bat. He broke out in 2025, batting .288 with 25 HR to boot. The numbers are very solid, but not exceptional. 2026 will be exceptional for Stowers as he puts all the pieces together, taking his 95th percentile xSLG, 98th percentile Barrel%, and 94th percentile xwOBA to reign in his first 35 HR season with an OPS over .950.
Ivan Herrera STL
Herrera has shown signs of being a productive big-league bat. As a career .286 hitter, Herrera has already demonstrated promising bat-to-ball skills. His power is a bit untapped, though. Herrera boasted a .491 xSLG last year, good for the 86th percentile. To only have 19 HR to show for that kind of slugging is unexpected. I believe 2026 produces a much more accurate depiction of Herrera’s power potential. Herrera will hit 30 HR this year.
Tyler Freeman COL
This is a weird one. Tyler Freeman has good speed, an elite arm, squares the ball up a lot, and doesn’t really swing and miss. His career high OPS is .715, though. He’s never hit more than 7 home runs. Is he a bad hitter? I really don’t think so. Put the ball in play enough, and eventually, good things start happening. I believe this is the year those good things start happening for Tyler Freeman. Freeman will hit .300 and steal 20 bags in 2026.
Brandon Little TOR
All this guy does is get swings and misses and groundballs. With a Whiff% in the 100th percentile and GB% in the 97th percentile last year, Brendon Little found good success in his first full year. I expect similar results in 2025 with even more volume. Little makes his first All-Star game in 2026.
Players Bouncing Back
Juan Soto NYM
It’s hard to say Juan Soto will go off this year without getting a resounding, “Duh.” With that said, I think Juan Soto goes off this year. For the last four years, Soto’s xBA has outperformed his true batting average. His xwOBA, xOBP, and batting run value are in the 97th percentile or better since 2019. As they say, statistics are less of a window into past performance and more of a window into future performance. Soto is my 2026 MVP.
Yandy Diaz TB
I think Yandy Diaz is a very slept-on offensive talent. Diaz is not a particularly good defender and is not a big power source. For those reasons, I believe Diaz’s bat-to-ball skills get overlooked. Straight up, Diaz can hit. xBA, Hard Hit%, and Whiff% are all top-tier and showcase that Diaz makes quality contact often. I expect Diaz to come close to his 2023 season and hit close to .330 in 2026.
Cole Ragans KC
The ol’ rotator cuff got to Ragans in 2025. Because he missed so much time, his numbers were unable to self-correct. Ragans pitched at a 4.67 ERA in 2025 after a breakout, 200-strikeout season in 2024. One season wonder? Far from it. Ragans, despite all his health problems in 2025, finished with the highest K% among all starting pitchers at 38.1% (2nd among all pitchers). In addition, Ragans had an xERA of 2.67 and an xBA of .187. Ragans was dominating, even though on the surface, it appeared he had regressed. Ragans is my 2026 AL Cy Young over the likes of Tarik Skubal.
Devin Williams NYM
Devin Williams is not a bad pitcher. Devin Williams is not a bad pitcher. Devin Williams is not a bad pitcher. His stuff is still sharp, and despite a slight dip in expected numbers from 2023 and 2024, Williams still has elite tools in his bag. In his “disappointing” 2025 with the Yankees, Williams had an xERA of 3.02 compared to his true 4.79 ERA. Williams xBA was .192 with a Whiff% in the 99th percentile. He still has elite stuff, and I expect an elite year in 2026. Sub-2.50 ERA incoming for Devin Williams.
Cade Smith CLE
Cade Smith has the making of the next great closer in the MLB. Everything in his game is elite, and I see no reason why he does not continue to improve. After bursting onto the scene with a 1.91 ERA in 2024, his numbers regressed to the mean with a 2.93 ERA in 2025. From that, Smith will improve from last year and begin producing seasons with around a 2.25 ERA and 40+ saves. Smith cements himself as a big name in 2026.
Players Falling Off
Jose Altuve HOU
I do not think Jose Altuve is what he used to be. I’ll even come out and say I do not think he has been all that good for the last three years. With xBA’s of .241, .261, and .237, Altuve has not been putting on the hitting clinic we got so used to in the 2010s. You’re probably scratching your head a bit. Hasn’t Altuve been good the last few years? Technically, yes. Despite his expected statistics, Altuve batted .311, .295, and .265 the last three years. What does this mean? It means Altuve is due for a regression. I believe that it is coming in 2026. Prediction: Altuve hits under .250 for just the second time in his career.
Sal Frelick MIL
Last year, Frelick had an xwOBA of .299, good for the 19th percentile. As a contact/get on base type of hitter, this is well below where the Brewers need him to be. Combined with well-below-average power, Frelick will find his 2026 OPS below .700.
Adam Frazier LAA
Similar to Frelick, Frazier’s profile is that of a contact hitter who struggles to get hits. It is just not a good blend. Hitting to the tune of a .305 BA in 2021 kept Frazier relevant and employed the last few years. Prediction: 2026 is Adam Frazier’s last year in the major leagues.
Hunter Goodman COL
Yes, Hunter Goodman had a very good year last year. This is my warning to all the Rockies fans out there: do not expect the same production in 2026. Coors Field is bound to produce inflated SLG numbers, so I won’t even talk about his power production past this; Goodman swings very hard, and as a result, he hits it very hard. With that said, Goodman strikes out a lot and does not produce many walks. What does this mean for 2026? It means Goodman had his breakout season. Teams are going to see that and make adjustments. Unless Goodman changes his approach, I see Goodman striking out at least 25% of the time with a sub-.300 OBP in 2026.
Seth Lugo KC
Last year, Lugo managed his way to a 4.15 ERA in 145.1 IP despite some injuries. He has been a productive pitcher for quite a while in the league, so why is he going to experience a steep fall-off in 2026? At age 36, Lugo is not getting any better or healthier. 2025 proved that, especially if you glance at the advanced metrics. Last year, Lugo produced a 5.20 xERA and a .256 xBA. This is just a glimpse into how bad Lugo actually was last year, but if you have the time, I encourage you to look at his Baseball Savant page. Prediction: 2026 is Lugo’s last year as a major-league starting pitcher.
Players Downticking in Production
Eugenio Suárez SEA
Despite his success in the power department to the tune of 49 HR, Suarez had his worst metric year in 2025. Suarez swung and missed and struck out at a clip in the bottom 5% of the league last year. Additionally, Suarez has had a regressive plate approach over the last few years. In 2024, he had a career-worst 27% Chase% followed up by an even worse 31% in 2025. Suarez is trending in the wrong direction. Prediction: Suarez bats under .200 with 200 strikeouts.
Royce Lewis MIN
Royce Lewis has not been particularly good enough for a downtick prediction to be monumental or controversial. Lewis has been an unimpressive offensive presence his entire career. Lewis struggles to be disciplined, struggles to hit the ball often, and struggles to hit the ball for power. Prediction: Lewis has his last year in the bigs in 2026 with an OPS under .650.
Matt McLain CIN
For context, Matt McLain had the same Batting Run Value as Riley Adams in 2025. Riley Adams batted .186 with a .560 OPS as a backup catcher for the Nationals. I can’t say I even knew who Riley Adams was before writing this, but that spells bad news for Matt McLain. McLain is not even a non-factor for the Reds‘ offense; he is a poison to their productivity. I think the Reds will realize this in 2026. Prediction: McLain gets fewer than 400 at-bats for the first time in his career, coupled with an OPS+ under 80.
Gavin Lux TB
Gavin Lux, once a highly-touted prospect, now just a glimmer of what could have been without the injuries. Likely to rotate between the outfield and second base, I expect Lux to struggle with the bat this year. Despite solid swing decisions, Lux is not much of a threat when he makes contact. After 4 full seasons accumulating only 28 HR, I don’t expect to see a power surge from Lux in 2026. In fact, of all of Lux’s full seasons, 2026 will be his worst offensively. Prediction: Lux has a career low OPS in a full season (below .692).
Noelvi Marte CIN
Marte has been another Reds youngster who is not helping the team win as they had hoped. Marte has accumulated 0.3 WAR in 191 games across 3 seasons for the Reds. With no clear upside to his game, alongside suspect swing decisions, I expect Marte to produce a sub-1.0 WAR and at least a 25% K rate in 2026.
Players Expected to Falloff
Tomoyuki Sugano COL
Tomoyuki Sugano might pitch at a 12.00 ERA in 2026. Despite a 10-win, 4.64 ERA rookie season, Sugano’s stuff was not sharp. With an xERA of 5.81, xBA of .289, and Barrel% in the 4th percentile, Sugano is bound to regress. Add in the fact that Sugano is now on the Rockies and has to make half his starts in the most hitter-friendly ballpark on earth, Coors Field, and he is going to struggle mightily. I do not see a world where Sugano has even a mildly successful season.
Ozzie Albies ATL
Ozzie Albies has struggled to find consistent success at the plate for the last 2 years. More than anything, Albies profiles as a below-average second baseman as opposed to his all-star pedigree of the past. Albies does not pose much of a threat as he used to, as he posted an xSLG in the 18th percentile last year compared to an xSLG in the 77th percentile just 2 years prior. He is just not the player he used to be. Prediction: Albies plays a full season for the last time this year.
Nolan Arenado AZ
Nolan Arenado and Manny Machado were paralleled a lot throughout their careers as some of the best defensive third basemen the league has ever seen. With productivity offensively, it was always a question of who would have the better career when it was all said and done. I think that debate is over. Arenado has struggled the last few years to stay relevant offensively. Arenado’s OPS has regressed each year since 2022, and I expect that to continue in 2026 (below .666).
Cedric Mullins TB
Cedric Mullins is one of the least intimidating hitters in the MLB. Look at his Baseball Savant page if you have the time. With an OPS+ of just 62 last year, Mullins limped out of New York to Tampa Bay. While still being above-average defensively, his offensive woes are going to overcome him this year. Prediction: Mullins starts games regularly for the last time this year and has an SLG below .350.
Miles Mikolas WSH
Mikolas is 37 years old. He has the worst Baseball Savant page out there right now. Mikolas owns a Barrel % in the 1st percentile, Whiff % in the 2nd percentile, and xERA in the 9th percentile. There is very little going for Miles Mikolas other than the fact that he doesn’t walk a lot of batters. Prediction: Miles Mikolas is not in the Nationals’ rotation by the end of the year and never pitches in another big league game past this year.
