MLB DFS Picks Today: Monday, April 27 DraftKings Plays & Stacks

My very first article with Blitz Sports Media. These will run every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the season.

These articles won’t obsess over value plays. You’ll rarely see a price mentioned. I’m not building your lineup for you. I’m giving you stacks that look like they could pop off.

Let’s get in it!

TB @ CLE

Weather giving a decent bump to bats here. Looking at their splits, both these lefties have great numbers on the year so far (backed up by great numbers last year).

The only real blemish is Matz against RHBs this year, which is starting to become a concern. We’ve got enough ABs here to think this will stick. Matz’s issue is flyballs this year, which are resulting in bombs from the right side of the plate.

CLE RHBs are in play here because of that. Though I don’t love how they’ve performed so far this year against lefties (or last year for that matter). Ramirez and Rocchio are two that stick out to me. They check all the boxes so far this year: low K rate, high walk rate, high wOBA, get the ball up. Ramirez hits only 0.1 ground balls to fly balls so far this year, crazy stat. Both have power when they get it in the air. 20% of Ramirez’s fly balls go for HRs, 28.6% of Rocchio’s. Both hard hit rates about 40%+.

STL @ PIT

PNC isn’t the greatest park to target for offense, but I could see going here in a few spots with a small slate.

Dustin May continues to struggle against lefties this year, even more so this year. High wOBA, high fly ball rate, close to 2 HRs given up per 9. Pittsburgh lefties are worth looking at here.

I’m interested in all of these lefties here, with my favorite being Brandon Lowe. Huge slugging and wOBA numbers this year, getting the ball up and hitting it out on 35% of his fly balls when he does.

Dotel will be getting the bulk of the innings today. He’s taken his time getting to the majors after bouncing around a bit. He has great raw stuff, can hit 100 on his fastball, but nothing has really translated the way it seems like it should have at the minor league level (and so far not in the majors either). I don’t love using batters against what could essentially turn into a bullpen game for Pittsburgh. If you’re rolling St. Louis bats here, it’s a full stack imo. You’re hoping for a complete blow up from Dotel.

BOS @ TOR

Only thing I’d be interested in here is Cease. His underlying numbers this year have been pretty elite (some walk issues but that’s it). High ground ball rate, high K rate, has yet to give up any HRs.

Suarez has been fine. Only knock on him is giving up some lefty power this year, which I think is due to regress.

LAA @ CWS

Again, not a great hitting park, but small slate so we’ll be interested.

While Kochanowicz has some pretty terrible K and BB% this year (in line with last year), he’s been a ground ball machine. CWS could certainly score here but I’m not interested if I don’t think he’s giving up the long ball (I don’t, none so far this year).

HELLO ANGELS. Angels righties set up very well here. Kay’s been getting wrecked from the right side so far this year. Sub 8% K rate, .400+ wOBA, 2.3 HR/9, almost 40% hard hit rate.

And on the other side, Angels righties have been mashing lefties at the top of this lineup. I’m interested in the entire top half of this lineup tonight. Adell looks to be in a great spot for a bomb here.

SEA @ MIN

This is a spot to target pitchers imo. Weather is anti home runs here tonight. Castillo’s really only underlying stat issue is the fly ball rate to lefties, something I don’t think will hurt him here particularly with this weather (balls aren’t going to fly).

I’m a fan of Prielipp on the other side for some salary relief. He’s a top prospect in MIN’s system, has a nasty 70-rate slider that he can get some Ks with. Not interested in bats here.

NYY @ TEX

Another spot I don’t have much interest in bats.

Fried so far with another great season. Low K rate to lefties but nothing I’d expect to stick. Fried is on the pitchers list for tonight’s slate.

CHC @ SD

Interest in Boyd here. SD also hasn’t looked great against LHPs this year.

MIA @ LAD

Dodgers are going to steamroll Miami here and everyone is going to be on it. Every Dodgers bat is in play here. Yamamoto in play, though I think you get better bang for your buck elsewhere. Outside of the last 3 hitters in this Miami lineup, they don’t K a lot.

Bonus Bet

LAD -1.5 (-143)

Bonus HR

• Jose Ramirez +375
• Brayan Rocchio +1100

Recap

Spots I’m attacking tonight:

Pitchers: Cease, Castillo, Prielipp, Fried, Boyd.

Stacks and hitters:

• CLE RHBs against Matz, Ramirez and Rocchio specifically.
• Pittsburgh lefties against May. Brandon Lowe is my favorite.
• Angels top half against Kay. Adell in a great spot for a bomb.
• Every Dodgers bat against Paddack.
• Cardinals as a full stack only against Dotel. GPP play hoping for a blow up.

Good luck tonight.