If it’s not one thing, it’s another with my Betting Guide. But that statement has actually been a good thing during the past month of PGA Tour events.
Rory McIlroy won The Masters, and then Matt Fitzpatrick claimed the RBC Heritage. This was followed up with me nailing my One and Done picks the last two weeks.
Let’s try to keep this little run going with some money in our pockets or big points for our One and Done leagues.
The Truist Championship returns to Quail Hollow Club after the course played host to the PGA Championship in 2025. McIlroy won the last visit to the Charlotte area course in 2024.
Let’s get into this week’s Betting Guide Top Plays. All odds are from DraftKings.
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Matt Fitzpatrick (+1650)
Rory may be at the top of my spreadsheet this week, but Matty Fitz has the betting odds I can’t ignore on a tough Quail Hollow course.
Fitzpatrick’s ball-striking consistency has been off the charts this season, and it’s backed by his two individual wins.
He’s in the Top 15 in 8 of the 11 categories I used this week for Truist, and what’s nice is his skillset doesn’t rely on one part of his game. His strong all-around play leads to less volatility than Rory’s, who hasn’t played a competitive round since winning The Masters a month ago.
Nicolai Hojgaard (+4800)
Hojgaard’s main weapon this week is his length off the tee. He ranks 9th in driving distance on the PGA Tour, averaging 318.7 yards.
Add his streaky scoring potential with that length, giving the young Dane a sneaky chance to be in contention. All he needs is some hot iron play and a neutral putting week.
His biggest weakness is accuracy off the tee, and if he keeps the ball in the short grass, his name should be near the top of the leaderboard come the weekend.
Ryan Gerard (+8400)
If Gerard can get off to a hot start, a weekend run could be in the cards.
That form led him to three straight Top 15 finishes to start the season, as he has not shot a round under 70 in the first round since the Sony Open, the first event of the year.
His approach to play and greens in regulation are his biggest assets at Quail Hollow, but if he’s missing the greens, he may be in trouble (136th SG: around the green and 127th in scrambling).
Top 20 with Ties
Daniel Berger (+210): I’m going back to Berger again for a Top 20 finish, but he needs to avoid a big number in the first round again.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+264): Alex proved he belonged on the PGA Tour with his T9 at the Cadillac Championship. His stats profile, though limited on the PGA Tour, has me giddy for this Top 20 play.
One and Done
Ludvig Aberg: I’m still debating if I’m going to add Aberg to my Bets to Win list, but he is easily the safest play this week with this type of course layout. He’s long and straight off the tee, and his approach play is elite – a great combo for a Top 10 finish.
Don’t forget to check out my complete betting card and my spreadsheet’s Top 25 on our Discord.
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