Week 3 gives us one of my favorite betting cards of the young season. Instead of forcing sides and totals, I’m focusing entirely on player markets where the usage, matchup, and price give us something worth attacking. The first five bets are anytime touchdown scorers, while the second half of the card targets receiving, rushing, and reception props.
As always, the number matters. A player can be a great bet at one price and an easy pass after the market moves. These are the 10 bets I’m targeting at the numbers listed below, so make sure you’re checking the line available to you before placing anything.
Dalton Kincaid Anytime Touchdown +185
Dalton Kincaid has been one of my favorite early-season breakouts, and +185 is enough for me to attack his touchdown market against the Chargers. Kincaid is coming off seven receptions on eight targets for 95 yards and his first touchdown of the season, but the bigger reason I’m buying him is the expanded role we’ve seen through two weeks. Buffalo is finally giving one of its most efficient receiving weapons more opportunities to run routes with Josh Allen, which naturally creates more chances for Kincaid to earn targets in scoring position.
The price is what pushes this over the top for me. +185 carries a break-even probability of only 35.1%, while 4for4 currently projects Kincaid for around 0.4 receiving touchdowns. Buffalo should also have plenty of opportunities to score in one of Sunday’s better offensive environments. I’m not betting Kincaid simply because he scored last week. I’m betting that the increased involvement continues creating opportunities around the end zone, and +185 gives us enough return to take the shot.
David Montgomery Anytime Touchdown -105
David Montgomery disappointed in Week 2, but I’m going right back to him in the touchdown market against Indianapolis. His workload wasn’t what fantasy managers wanted last week, with Woody Marks earning 13 touches for 35 yards compared with eight touches for 24 yards for Montgomery. The playing time was much less concerning. Marks played 38 offensive snaps compared with 42 for Montgomery, so this hasn’t suddenly become a backfield where Montgomery is operating as the clear backup. We also just watched Montgomery score three total touchdowns on 23 touches in Week 1, including two on the ground and another through the air.
Indianapolis is the bigger reason I’m willing to buy back in. The Colts have struggled to consistently stop the run through the first two weeks and have already allowed nine trips into the red zone. Montgomery doesn’t need 100 rushing yards for this bet to cash; I primarily need Houston to continue giving him opportunities near the goal line. Touchdown Theory gives Montgomery a 50.8% probability of scoring, equivalent to roughly a -103 fair price. At -105, I’m comfortable betting on his scoring role bouncing back in a much better spot.
Breece Hall Anytime Touchdown +100
Breece Hall at even money is one of the more appealing prices on the touchdown card. The matchup with Detroit isn’t perfect because the Lions have the offense to build an early lead and potentially push New York away from a run-heavy game plan. Hall, however, isn’t dependent entirely on carries. His ability to remain involved as a receiver gives him multiple paths to reach the end zone even if the Jets find themselves chasing points.
That’s important when evaluating an anytime-touchdown market rather than a rushing-only prop. At +100, we’re getting an implied probability of exactly 50%. I’m not asking the Jets to control this game or give Hall 25 carries. I need one of their scoring opportunities to reach their most dangerous back, and the combination of rushing and receiving usage gives Hall enough ways to get there for me to take the even-money price.
Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown +140
Chris Olave has quickly established himself as the centerpiece of New Orleans’ passing game, and I’m willing to chase that role against Las Vegas. The Saints should be capable of moving the football in this matchup, and when I’m betting an anytime touchdown at +140, I want exposure to the player most likely to command targets when the offense gets into scoring position. Olave clearly fits that description.
The price also gives us enough upside to justify betting on a receiving touchdown rather than needing massive volume. One projection I’ve looked at prices Olave closer to +125 fair, compared with the +140 available in the market. That’s not some enormous discrepancy, but it’s enough when combined with his role. Olave doesn’t need New Orleans to produce a massive offensive performance; if Tyler Shough throws multiple touchdowns, I’m comfortable betting that his WR1 has a strong chance of being attached to one of them.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown -125
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the shortest price among my five touchdown bets, but he’s also the player with arguably the strongest touchdown profile. Detroit carries one of Sunday’s better scoring environments against the Jets, immediately giving us an offense expected to create multiple touchdown opportunities. St. Brown remains one of Jared Goff’s most trusted weapons when the field gets condensed, which is exactly the type of role I’m willing to pay a negative price for.
The projections support it as well. Touchdown Theory has been particularly aggressive on St. Brown’s scoring chances, putting him at a 70.9% probability, while a more conservative model I’ve looked at lands around 55.6%. At -125, our break-even probability is 55.6%. I don’t need the most aggressive projection to be correct for this bet to make sense. With his combination of target volume, scoring opportunities, and Detroit’s offensive environment, St. Brown rounds out my five touchdown scorers.
Pat Freiermuth Over 36.5 Receiving Yards
Pat Freiermuth over 36.5 receiving yards is probably my favorite matchup-driven prop of the week. Cincinnati allowed an NFL-high 84.9 receiving yards per game to tight ends last season, and Dalton Schultz just destroyed this defense for 12 receptions and 140 yards in Week 2. Freiermuth obviously doesn’t need anything remotely close to that performance to clear this number; we’re asking him for only 37 yards.
The usage gives me enough confidence to attack it. Freiermuth is averaging 39 receiving yards and 4.5 receptions through Pittsburgh’s first two games, and his playing time has remained strong. He has already cleared this number once with 46 yards in the opener. Cincinnati’s issues defending tight ends create one of the clearest positional matchups on the slate, and 36.5 is low enough that four or five receptions can get us there without requiring a massive play.
Jaylen Warren 25+ Receiving Yards
Jaylen Warren’s receiving usage is exactly why I want the alternate 25-yard line rather than betting on his rushing production. Warren has already drawn nine targets through two games, catching seven of them for 61 yards, and has consistently shown the ability to create after the catch. PFF currently projects him for 24.8 receiving yards on 4.6 targets, putting this alternate threshold almost directly in line with his expected production.
Rico Dowdle being out creates another opportunity for Warren to handle additional work, although Warren himself is officially questionable with a shoulder injury. That’s the obvious variable we have to monitor. Assuming Warren is active without a meaningful restriction, I like his chances of getting four or five opportunities through the air, and that’s enough volume for a back with his receiving ability to reach 25 yards. This is one I’ll confirm Sunday morning before locking it in.
Tee Higgins 50+ Receiving Yards
I’m buying the discounted alternate line on Tee Higgins. Higgins has 154 receiving yards through two games, giving him an average of 77 per game after producing 59 yards in Week 1 and 95 in Week 2. His standard Week 3 receiving line has been sitting around 53.5 yards, so dropping to 50+ gives us a little additional protection without moving so far down that we’re completely sacrificing the payout.
What I like most is that we don’t need a ceiling performance. Higgins doesn’t need 100 yards or a touchdown to cash this. We’re asking for 50 yards from a receiver averaging well above that number and operating as one of the primary options in Cincinnati’s passing attack. Pittsburgh’s pass rush can create problems, but Higgins can reach this threshold on four or five receptions without Cincinnati needing to have an enormous passing day.
Tony Pollard 50+ Rushing Yards
Tony Pollard gets one of my favorite rushing spots of Week 3 against the Giants. New York’s run defense has given opponents opportunities to create production on the ground, and this is a matchup where Tennessee should have a chance to stay committed to Pollard rather than immediately abandoning the run because of game script. At only 50+ rushing yards, we don’t need him to completely take over the game.
That’s what makes the alternate threshold attractive. If Pollard gets into the 12-to-15 carry range, he needs only modest efficiency to reach this number. I’m not betting on a massive breakout or requiring him to score a touchdown; I’m betting that Tennessee gives its RB1 enough volume against a vulnerable run defense to reach a relatively modest threshold.
Dalton Schultz Over 4.5 Receptions
Dalton Schultz over 4.5 receptions might have the cleanest volume argument on the entire card if you can still get this number. Nico Collins has officially been ruled out against Indianapolis, and we just saw what Schultz’s role can become when Houston is missing its top receiver. Against Cincinnati, Schultz commanded 14 targets and caught 12 of them for 140 yards. He also opened the season with four receptions on eight targets for 35 yards, bringing him to 16 catches on 22 targets through two games.
The important qualifier is that this market has started moving to 5.5 receptions at some sportsbooks. If you still have over 4.5 available at a reasonable price, that’s the number I’m targeting. Five catches is a very manageable threshold with Collins unavailable and Schultz already establishing himself as one of C.J. Stroud’s most dependable underneath and intermediate options. At 5.5, the decision becomes considerably closer because we’re now asking Schultz for six receptions rather than five, so make sure you’re betting the number rather than blindly following the player.
