Week 8 presents several interesting opportunities in the player prop market, with favorable quarterback matchups, changing receiving roles and defensive tendencies creating potential value. I’ve identified six props worth examining, although not every selection carries the same level of confidence at its current line.
Kirk Cousins and Trevor Lawrence headline my favorite passing touchdown plays, while Chase Brown and Dallas Goedert offer intriguing receiving opportunities. I’m also targeting Bo Nix’s passing yards under and taking a closer look at Michael Wilson’s receptions against Dallas.
1. Kirk Cousins, QB (LV) @ NYJ
Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+100)
Kirk Cousins has been one of the most productive touchdown passers in football, leading the NFL with 16 passing touchdowns through seven games while averaging 2.3 per contest. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in six of seven games this season, including three touchdown passes in each of his first three appearances. Cousins has also exceeded this line in seven of his last 10 games, demonstrating how consistently he’s generated scoring opportunities despite Las Vegas’ offensive struggles. His red-zone involvement has increased recently, averaging 8.5 red-zone passing attempts over his last two games compared with six per game on the season. He’s converted approximately 29% of those attempts into touchdowns, comfortably above the league average of 24%.
The Jets present a favorable matchup, allowing approximately 1.57 passing touchdowns per game, tied for the ninth-most in football. Two of the last three quarterbacks to face New York have thrown multiple touchdowns, including Drake Maye, who finished with three. The Jets also operate one of the league’s slower offenses, averaging just 58.1 plays per game, which could limit Las Vegas’ overall opportunities. However, Cousins’ established red-zone production and consistent touchdown involvement make him an appealing option at even money. I’m backing Cousins to throw at least two touchdowns because his season-long scoring production and New York’s defensive struggles provide a favorable opportunity to extend his impressive streak.
2. Trevor Lawrence, QB (JAX) vs. IND
Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-178)
Trevor Lawrence has been outstanding through six games, throwing 14 touchdown passes, the fourth-most in the NFL. He’s recorded multiple passing touchdowns in four of his six appearances, including four touchdowns against Cleveland in Week 1 and Houston in Week 6. Lawrence has also exceeded this line in seven of his last 10 games and nine of his last 14 appearances as a favorite, demonstrating his ability to capitalize when Jacksonville enters a matchup with a favorable offensive outlook. His red-zone opportunities have increased considerably, averaging nine red-zone passing attempts over his last two games compared with 5.7 on the season. Jacksonville also enters Week 8 following an extended break, giving Lawrence additional preparation time for an Indianapolis defense that has struggled against opposing quarterbacks.
The Jaguars enter the matchup as 10-point favorites with an implied team total near 28.2 points, creating one of the strongest offensive environments on the Week 8 schedule. Lawrence has averaged 2.5 passing touchdowns in games where Jacksonville’s implied team total reached at least 23.5 points, making the scoring outlook particularly encouraging. Indianapolis has also been below average in defensive efficiency against opposing passing attacks, creating opportunities for Lawrence to sustain drives and capitalize near the goal line. The biggest concern is Jacksonville establishing a substantial early lead and relying more heavily on its rushing attack during the second half. However, Lawrence’s recent touchdown production and favorable matchup make him one of my favorite passing touchdown props, even with the expensive price.
3. Chase Brown, RB (CIN) vs. TEN
Pick: Over 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
Chase Brown has remained an important part of Cincinnati’s passing attack, recording 143 receiving yards through six games while averaging approximately 23.8 yards per contest. His 15% target share ranks sixth among running backs, demonstrating how frequently the Bengals involve him as a receiving option. Brown has exceeded 20.5 receiving yards in three of six appearances this season, including an 11-catch, 71-yard performance against Jacksonville in Week 4. He also finished with 22 yards against Tampa Bay and 21 against Miami, showing that he doesn’t necessarily need substantial receiving volume to clear this relatively modest line. However, his recent production has been less consistent, as he finished with 19 receiving yards on four catches against Baltimore in Week 7.
Tennessee presents an appealing matchup for receiving running backs, allowing approximately 7.2 yards per target on screen passes, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Cincinnati enters the game as an 11.5-point favorite with an implied team total near 29 points, creating a favorable environment for Brown to generate opportunities throughout the game. He’s also averaged 32 receiving yards in games where Cincinnati’s implied team total reached at least 23.5 points. The line has dropped from 21.5 to 20.5 yards, providing a slightly more favorable entry point. Brown’s inconsistent receiving production makes this a lower-confidence selection, particularly because his season average is influenced by one substantial performance. However, his established target involvement and Tennessee’s struggles defending screens give him a reasonable opportunity to clear 20.5 receiving yards.
4. Dallas Goedert, TE (PHI) @ WAS
Pick: Over 4.5 receptions (-130)
Dallas Goedert has become one of Philadelphia’s most dependable receiving options with Tanner McKee under center, recording at least five receptions in three consecutive games. He’s received 24 targets during that stretch, finishing with six catches against Jacksonville, six against Carolina and five against Dallas. Goedert has also commanded approximately 19% of Philadelphia’s targets over his last two games, while McKee has frequently looked his direction early in passing progressions. Philadelphia’s receiving depth has taken another hit, with DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks ruled out for Week 8. Their absences could create additional opportunities for Goedert, particularly if the Eagles are forced into a pass-heavy approach against Washington.
The Commanders present a favorable matchup, allowing approximately 24.2 receptions per game to opposing offenses, the fourth-most in football. Over Washington’s last six games, the opposing tight end with the highest snap count has exceeded his reception line four times. Philadelphia enters the matchup as a six-point underdog, potentially creating additional passing opportunities if the Eagles fall behind early. Goedert has commanded approximately 21% of Philadelphia’s targets when trailing compared with just 12% when leading, making the projected game script particularly encouraging. He caught only four passes against Washington in Week 1, but his receiving involvement has increased considerably since then. I’m backing Goedert to record at least five receptions because his recent target volume, Philadelphia’s receiving injuries and the favorable matchup create an excellent opportunity for another productive performance.
5. Bo Nix, QB (DEN) vs. KC
Pick: Under 204.5 passing yards (-110)
Bo Nix has struggled to generate consistent passing production this season, averaging just 182 passing yards per game while recording 1,271 yards through seven appearances. He’s finished below 204.5 passing yards in four of seven games, including performances of 123 yards against the Chargers and 107 against Seattle. Nix has also struggled to consistently push the football downfield, averaging just 5.7 air yards per target, the lowest mark among qualifying quarterbacks. His previous meeting with Kansas City provides another encouraging data point for the under, as he completed 17 of 28 passes for just 131 yards in Week 1. Although Nix exceeded this line with 222 passing yards against Arizona in Week 7, his season-long production has remained below the current number.
Kansas City presents a difficult matchup for Denver’s passing attack, allowing just 5.1 yards per attempt on Nix’s most common dropback type, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. The game carries a modest 40.5-point total, while Denver enters with an implied team total near 19.5 points, suggesting another potentially difficult offensive environment. Nix has averaged approximately 193.8 passing yards in games where Denver’s implied team total was below 23.5 points, further supporting the under. The line has increased from 201.5 to 204.5 yards, providing a slightly more favorable number despite Nix exceeding 200 yards in two of his last four appearances. I’m taking Nix under 204.5 passing yards because his limited downfield production, previous struggles against Kansas City and Denver’s modest scoring outlook create a favorable matchup for the under.
6. Michael Wilson, WR (ARI) @ DAL
Pick: Over 4.5 receptions — Lower-confidence lean
Michael Wilson has maintained a significant role in Arizona’s passing attack, commanding approximately 24% of the team’s targets while averaging 4.9 receptions over his last 10 appearances. He’s recorded 37 receptions through seven games this season, including an 11-catch performance against San Francisco and seven receptions against the Giants. Wilson has also received at least seven targets in six of seven appearances, demonstrating his consistent involvement even when his reception totals haven’t followed. However, he’s caught exactly four passes in each of his last three games, falling short of this line despite receiving seven targets in each contest. His 56.1% catch rate remains a concern, particularly when considering that he’s cleared 4.5 receptions in just three of seven games this season. The good news is that Wilson has recovered from his ribs injury and is expected to play without limitations.
Dallas presents an appealing matchup for opposing receivers, allowing approximately a 71% catch rate, the fourth-highest in the NFL. Arizona enters the matchup as a seven-point underdog in a game featuring a 54.5-point total, tied for the highest on the schedule. That creates the possibility of substantial passing volume from Jacoby Brissett if the Cardinals are forced to chase points. Jalen Brooks’ absence on injured reserve could also create additional opportunities within Arizona’s receiving rotation. However, Wilson’s recent reception totals make this a difficult line to trust, especially considering that Arizona’s implied team total is only 23.8 points. The matchup creates legitimate upside, but I’m treating Wilson over 4.5 receptions as a lean rather than an official betting recommendation because his recent production and catch rate don’t provide enough evidence to justify the current number.
Final Thoughts
Kirk Cousins over 1.5 passing touchdowns is my favorite player prop for Week 8, with his consistent scoring production and favorable matchup against the Jets creating an appealing opportunity at even money. Trevor Lawrence over 1.5 passing touchdowns is another strong selection, although his expensive price makes it less attractive from a value perspective.
Dallas Goedert’s increased receiving involvement and Philadelphia’s injuries make his receptions over particularly interesting, while Chase Brown and Bo Nix offer smaller statistical advantages at their current lines.
Michael Wilson’s matchup against Dallas is favorable, but his recent reception totals make the over difficult to justify. I’d prioritize the other five selections rather than forcing Wilson into a bet simply because Arizona is expected to throw frequently.
