The Cincinnati Reds have gotten off to a decent start this season. They have a record of 22-20, one of the best starts they have had in years. Sure, they are currently in last place in the NL Central, but that is the league’s most competitive division. They are only five games out of first place and two games out of the last Wild Card spot in the NL. It looks like the Reds have a real chance to make it back to the playoffs. The first time they have had back-to-back playoff trips since the 2012 and 2013 seasons.
While the Reds have played well, their pitching staff has been ravaged by injury. Hunter Greene, Brandon Williamson, and Rhett Lowder are all on the injured list and won’t be back anytime soon. If the Reds want to stay in contention, they need to find MLB-caliber pitchers and fast. That’s why they decided to sign Chris Paddack to an MLB contract. He is expected to make his first start for the team on Saturday, May 16th, against the Guardians. But can Paddack give the Reds quality innings?
Can Chris Paddack Be a Reliable Starter for the Reds?
Despite being one of the top prospects in baseball back in 2019, things have not gone well for Paddack. In eight MLB seasons, he has a career ERA of 4.79 over 612 1/3 innings with 556 strikeouts to 136 walks, a 1.238 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 86. This season is by far the worst that he has looked. In 30 2/3 innings for the Miami Marlins, he pitched to a 7.63 ERA, with 27 strikeouts to 10 walks, a 1.663 WHIP, and an ERA+ of 54. This led to his being DFA’d after just seven appearances and six starts.
The biggest problem Paddack had this season was his inability to limit hard hits. According to Baseball Savant, he has a 47.2 Hard Hit%, which ranks in the 13th percentile. He also has allowed a Barrel% of 10.3, which ranks in the 24th percentile. This has resulted in hitters making contact with high exit velocity. The hits he allowed averaged 90.1 mph, which is in the 30th percentile. He also allowed a hit at 116.3 mph, one of the fastest hits in the majors this season. This is something he needs to figure out, especially with the Reds playing in a very hitter-friendly park.
However, a few metrics suggest Paddack can turn it around. For starters, his fastball, cutter, and curveball have all produced a higher batting average than expected. This shows that he is getting a bit unlucky with the contact he’s allowing. He also has a 6.8 walk rate, which is in the 70th percentile. As well as a 33.5 Chase%, which has helped him have an 18.5 Strikeout%. A two percent increase from 2025. These are signs that Paddack has decent stuff. If he can figure out a way to limit the hard hits, his numbers should start to look a lot better.
The Reds do not need Paddack to be an ace. They also do not need him to be someone they can rely on for the rest of the season. All they need him to do is give them five innings and put the team in a position to win over the next few weeks. As a short-term fix, Paddack is a low-risk, high-reward option. The Reds can put him out there and hope he can figure out the problems that have been causing him to struggle. If not, they can always cut him once their starters get healthy in a few weeks.
Paddack may not be a long-term piece for the Reds this season, but he can play a crucial role. He can help this team tread water until they are at full strength again.
