Running back remains one of the most difficult positions to navigate in fantasy football because projected volume can change quickly, efficiency is often difficult to repeat, and injuries can completely alter a backfield. That makes identifying the right values especially important. Some running backs are being drafted below the level their workload and talent suggest, while others carry significantly more risk than their current price reflects.
This list features three running backs worth targeting and three players to avoid at their current ADPs. Chase Brown, Javonte Williams, and J.K. Dobbins all offer strong value based on their roles, efficiency, and projected opportunity. Christian McCaffrey, Bucky Irving, and Chuba Hubbard remain capable players, but each enters 2026 with enough warning signs to make them difficult investments at cost.
Target: Chase Brown, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase Brown enters 2026 as one of the safest running back selections outside the first round, yet his RB11 price still feels slightly lower than it should be. His 2025 season started slowly, as he failed to record a top-20 weekly finish until Week 7, but his production completely changed once Cincinnati’s offense found stability. From Week 7 through the end of the season, Brown averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game and finished as the RB19 or better in every contest. He also finished inside the top 15 in nine of those 11 games, showing the type of weekly consistency fantasy managers want from an early-round running back. Brown has now produced more than 1,300 scrimmage yards in consecutive seasons while establishing himself as one of the better receiving backs in football. He ranked fifth among running backs in receptions last season, giving him a strong floor even when Cincinnati’s rushing attack struggled.
The situation around Brown remains extremely favorable entering his contract year. The Bengals did not make a meaningful addition to the backfield, leaving Samaje Perine as his primary competition and Brown firmly positioned for another three-down role. A healthy Joe Burrow should also raise the ceiling of the entire offense after Brown’s slow start last season coincided with instability at quarterback. Cincinnati has reportedly discussed incorporating more under-center rushing concepts, which could further benefit Brown after he proved to be one of the league’s most explosive runners from those formations. His combination of receiving volume, touchdown upside, and limited competition gives him a realistic path to a top-five finish. Brown should be drafted much closer to the elite running back tier than the backend of the top 10, making him one of my favorite early-round targets in 2026.
Avoid: Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey remains one of the best fantasy football players of his generation, but his RB3 price requires fantasy managers to ignore several significant warning signs. McCaffrey is coming off the heaviest workload of his career after recording 450 touches across 19 games, the second-most touches by any running back in a season since 2015. That workload helped him finish as one of fantasy football’s most valuable players, but it also creates an enormous amount of risk entering his age-30 season. McCaffrey has now averaged four yards per carry or fewer in consecutive years, suggesting that even though the volume remains elite, his rushing efficiency is beginning to decline. He has also already shown how difficult it can be for his body to recover from extreme usage. In each of the previous two seasons in which he surpassed 400 touches, he failed to stay healthy the following year.
The historical outlook is equally concerning. Since 2010, 59% of running backs who surpassed 400 touches either suffered a significant injury, experienced at least a 20% decline in fantasy production per game, or both the following season. That risk becomes even more pronounced for older players, as six of the nine backs age 26 or older in that sample either declined or missed significant time. McCaffrey also faces the 25th-ranked schedule for running backs, making his path to another overall RB1-caliber season more difficult. His receiving role and lack of proven competition will keep his weekly ceiling extremely high, but fantasy managers selecting him inside the top three are paying for nearly everything to go right. McCaffrey is still worth drafting in the first round, but the workload, age, declining rushing efficiency, and injury history make him a player I would fade until later in the round.
Target: Javonte Williams, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Javonte Williams was one of the biggest running back surprises of 2025, but his current RB17 price still fails to reflect how well he actually played. Williams finished as the RB11 in fantasy points per game while producing 1,338 scrimmage yards and 13 touchdowns on 287 touches. His rushing efficiency finally returned after multiple disappointing seasons in Denver, as he finished third among qualifying running backs in yards after contact per attempt and 16th in explosive run rate. That resurgence suggests 2025 may have been the first season in which Williams was fully recovered from the devastating knee injury that altered the early portion of his career. The Cowboys clearly believe his production was sustainable, rewarding him with a three-year contract and positioning him as the unquestioned leader of the backfield.
There is some concern after Williams slowed down during the second half of the season, but the decline was driven more by touchdown variance than a collapse in performance. He averaged 18.5 touches, 90.7 total yards, and nine touchdowns over the first eight weeks before falling to 17.4 touches, 76.5 yards, and four touchdowns from Weeks 9-17. His per-touch metrics remained solid over that second stretch, and he actually improved his explosive run rate and missed tackle rate. Dallas should once again provide one of the league’s better offensive environments, while Williams enters the year with a secure three-down role and the seventh-easiest schedule for running backs. His ceiling may not be as flashy as some players being selected ahead of him, but his workload and efficiency give him a strong chance to repeat as a top-15 option. At RB17, Williams is one of the best values available in the middle rounds.
Avoid: Bucky Irving, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving carries obvious bounce-back appeal after injuries derailed his sophomore season, but his current price still assumes a cleaner workload than he is likely to receive. Irving finished as the RB36 after averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, the third-worst mark among qualifying running backs, while scoring only one rushing touchdown. His efficiency fell dramatically after his breakout rookie campaign, as he ranked 43rd in explosive run rate and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. A torn labrum and additional lower-body injuries clearly affected his play, but durability has now become a legitimate concern. Irving has dealt with foot, shoulder, hip, back, toe, and hamstring issues across his first two NFL seasons, which is difficult to overlook for a smaller running back whose value depends heavily on explosiveness.
The backfield situation also creates more risk than fantasy managers may realize. Todd Bowles has already referred to Irving and Kenneth Gainwell as a 1A and 1B combination, while Sean Tucker remains a threat to steal goal-line work. Gainwell has consistently earned passing-down opportunities throughout his career, and Tampa Bay gave him a meaningful contract this offseason. New offensive coordinator Zac Robinson also comes from an Atlanta offense that regularly used Tyler Allgeier near the goal line instead of Bijan Robinson. That creates a scenario in which Irving loses receiving work to Gainwell and scoring opportunities to Tucker, leaving him dependent on efficiency that disappeared last season. A healthy Irving can still outperform expectations, but his RB17-RB24 range does not fully account for the injury and workload concerns. At his current price, he profiles as one of the easiest running back landmines to avoid.
Target: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Denver Broncos
J.K. Dobbins remains one of the best late-round running back targets because his current RB37 price does not reflect the production he delivered before suffering a foot injury last season. From Weeks 1-10, Dobbins averaged 16.4 touches and 80.6 total yards per game while finishing as the RB24 in fantasy points per game. He was on pace for 260 carries and more than 1,300 rushing yards, establishing himself as Denver’s clear early-down runner. His efficiency also remained impressive, as he ranked third among qualifying running backs in explosive run rate and eighth in missed tackle rate. Dobbins has consistently proven that he can still create big plays when healthy, and the Broncos made re-signing him one of their biggest offseason priorities by giving him a two-year contract.
The downside is obvious, as Dobbins has one of the longest injury histories among active running backs and offers very little as a receiver. He averaged only 1.4 targets per game last season, meaning his fantasy value will remain dependent on rushing volume and touchdowns. Still, that concern is already reflected in his ADP. RJ Harvey should remain Denver’s primary receiving back, but his inefficiency as a runner makes it difficult to project him for a major increase in early-down work. Rookie Jonah Coleman may also be involved, but Dobbins remains the most proven rusher in the backfield and should open the season as the lead option. At RB37, fantasy managers do not need him to stay healthy for all 17 games to return value. As long as he is on the field, Dobbins should provide RB2 or flex production and is one of the best RB3 options available on draft day.
Avoid: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Carolina Panthers
Chuba Hubbard’s breakout 2024 season looks increasingly like the exception after one of the most inefficient running back performances in recent memory. Hubbard finished as the RB40 in fantasy points per game last season and eventually lost playing time to Rico Dowdle despite signing a contract extension before the year. He ranked dead last among qualifying running backs in both explosive run rate and missed tackle rate while finishing near the bottom of the league in yards after contact per attempt. Most concerningly, Hubbard failed to record a single explosive run despite receiving more than 125 carries. That type of inefficiency is nearly unprecedented for a running back with his workload and raises major questions about whether he can remain effective in a significant role.
Those concerns become even more important with Jonathon Brooks entering the season fully healthy. Carolina invested a second-round pick in Brooks, and his explosiveness and receiving ability give him a much higher ceiling than Hubbard. Dave Canales has repeatedly shown that he is willing to feature one running back once that player earns the role, as Rachaad White and Hubbard both previously handled snap shares approaching 80% under his direction. If Brooks performs well during training camp or early in the season, Hubbard could quickly become the secondary option. Carolina also faces the most difficult projected schedule for running backs, further lowering the appeal of an already uncertain role. Hubbard is currently being drafted as the RB29 after finishing as the RB37 overall, leaving fantasy managers with very little upside at cost. Rather than drafting Hubbard, the better move is to target Brooks several rounds later and bet on the more talented player taking control of the backfield.
