The tight end position has become much deeper over the last few seasons, making it even more important to avoid overpaying for players at the top of the board. A tight end doesn’t have to completely disappoint to become a bad fantasy pick. When managers draft someone at or near his ceiling, even another productive season can result in negative value if similar production is available multiple rounds later.
The five tight ends on this list all have enough talent to produce useful fantasy seasons. The concern is that their current ADPs leave little room for regression, changing offensive philosophies, declining efficiency, or increased competition for opportunities. Trey McBride, George Kittle, Jake Ferguson, Dalton Kincaid, and Mark Andrews are all players I’d still consider later in drafts, but at their current prices, I’m letting someone else take the risk.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Current ADP: TE1
Trey McBride is coming off a historic 2025 campaign, finishing as the overall TE1 after posting 126 receptions, 1,239 receiving yards, and 11 touchdowns. He ranked third among all pass catchers in targets while becoming just the second player behind Puka Nacua in total receptions. McBride has now produced back-to-back seasons with over 1,100 receiving yards, but repeating that type of volume will be extremely difficult. Arizona faces the 28th-ranked schedule for tight ends this season, and the Cardinals are unlikely to throw at the league’s highest rate again after drafting Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick. McBride remains one of the NFL’s elite tight ends, but fantasy managers drafting him as TE1 are paying for another career year rather than his most likely outcome.
Arizona’s offense also looks much different entering 2026. New offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur has historically featured tight ends far less than Drew Petzing, while Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson are both expected to command larger target shares. The Cardinals have also made it clear they want to become more balanced offensively after investing heavily in the running game. McBride can absolutely remain an elite fantasy option, but fewer pass attempts and more competition for targets create a much narrower path to repeating last season’s production. At his current ADP, fantasy managers are paying for his absolute ceiling when similar upside exists later in drafts.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: TE9
George Kittle has been one of fantasy football’s biggest difference-makers for years, but this season carries more risk than ever before. Before suffering a torn Achilles in the playoffs, Kittle ranked second among all tight ends in fantasy points per game despite missing six contests. He finished with 57 receptions, 628 yards, and seven touchdowns while continuing to produce elite efficiency whenever healthy. The concern is that he’ll be 32 years old and recovering from one of the most difficult injuries for any NFL player to overcome. Kittle has already opened training camp on the Physically Unable to Perform list, making his availability and effectiveness early in the season legitimate concerns.
Even if Kittle is active for Week 1, expecting him to immediately return to peak form is an aggressive projection. He’s already dealt with durability concerns throughout his career and now faces the added challenge of returning from a torn Achilles. San Francisco has little reason to rush one of its most valuable veterans back to a full workload, and the 49ers also have the 23rd-ranked schedule for fantasy tight ends. Kittle still possesses league-winning upside when healthy, but his current ADP asks fantasy managers to ignore far too much downside.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys
Current ADP: TE11
Jake Ferguson quietly finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end last season, but much of that production came while Dallas dealt with injuries around him. Ferguson averaged just 7.3 fantasy points per game when both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were healthy, compared to 13.5 points per game when Lamb missed time. He also ranked 35th among tight ends in average depth of target and 42nd in yards per reception, highlighting his limited explosiveness. Ferguson’s career highs of 71 receptions and 761 receiving yards don’t suggest there’s another level waiting to be unlocked, especially with Dallas’ receiving corps fully healthy.
The biggest concern is simply volume. Ferguson now projects as the third option behind Lamb and Pickens, making consistent weekly production difficult to trust. His eight touchdowns last season also appear difficult to repeat after scoring just five touchdowns combined over his previous two years. Dallas also faces the 29th-ranked schedule for fantasy tight ends, further lowering his weekly ceiling. Without an injury ahead of him, Ferguson looks much more like a touchdown-dependent TE2 than the fringe TE1 his ADP suggests.
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills
Current ADP: TE14
Dalton Kincaid has become one of fantasy football’s most popular breakout candidates every offseason, but eventually projections have to become production. Injuries limited him to just 39 receptions for 571 yards and five touchdowns last season after also battling durability issues during his rookie year. Even when healthy, Kincaid ran a route on only 46% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps while ranking just 25th among tight ends in target share. Josh Allen spreads the football as well as any quarterback in the NFL, making it difficult for secondary pass catchers to consistently command elite volume. Kincaid has flashed the talent that made him a first-round pick, but his current TE14 ADP continues to price in the breakout rather than what he’s consistently shown on the field.
The concerns extend beyond his production. Buffalo still utilizes Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes heavily in blocking situations, limiting Kincaid’s snap share, while injuries have now impacted him in back-to-back seasons. The addition of DJ Moore should help create more space underneath, but it also gives Allen another proven playmaker to distribute targets toward. Kincaid certainly has the talent to outperform this ranking, but fantasy managers are once again betting on everything breaking right. I’d rather draft proven producers like Travis Kelce, Isaiah Likely, or Dallas Goedert later than continue chasing a breakout that has yet to materialize.
Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens
Current ADP: TE15
There was a time when Mark Andrews was a weekly fantasy football cheat code, but those days appear to be behind him. Andrews finished as the TE16 overall and TE23 in fantasy points per game last season while producing just three top-12 weekly finishes across 17 games. He also posted career lows in receiving yards with 422 while averaging only 1.22 yards per route run. Andrews ranked dead last among 49 qualifying tight ends in yards after the catch per reception, highlighting just how much his explosiveness declined. At 31 years old, fantasy managers are betting on a bounce-back despite two consecutive seasons of declining production.
Baltimore’s offense has evolved considerably since Andrews was an elite fantasy option. Lamar Jackson continues to spread the football around, Derrick Henry has transformed the offense into one of the league’s most run-heavy attacks, and Andrews has become increasingly touchdown dependent to maintain fantasy relevance. While the departures of Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar create more available snaps, there’s no guarantee Andrews returns to commanding the target share he once enjoyed. He remains a quality NFL tight end, but fantasy managers drafting him inside the top 15 are chasing yesterday’s production instead of evaluating where he is in his career today.
Fantasy Football Busts
| RK | Player | Pos | PPR | Half PPR | Standard | Bye | Value | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey |
RB | 8 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 88.85 | |
| 2 | Drake London |
WR | 11 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 83.37 | |
| 3 | De’Von Achane |
RB | 13 | 14 | 20 | 6 | 79.82 | |
| 4 | George Pickens |
WR | 16 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 74.74 | |
| 5 | Trey McBride |
TE | 17 | 22 | 21 | 14 | 73.12 | |
| 6 | Tetairoa McMillan |
WR | 25 | 28 | 29 | 5 | 61.63 | |
| 7 | Breece Hall |
RB | 40 | 37 | 43 | 13 | 46.07 | |
| 8 | Travis Etienne Jr. |
RB | 47 | 43 | 47 | 8 | 40.80 | |
| 9 | Jameson Williams |
WR | 51 | 50 | 44 | 6 | 38.21 | |
| 10 | DJ Moore |
WR | 52 | 62 | 62 | 7 | 37.61 | |
| 11 | Jayden Daniels |
QB | 54 | 58 | 55 | 7 | 36.44 | |
| 12 | Bucky Irving |
RB | 58 | 54 | 52 | 10 | 34.28 | |
| 13 | TreVeyon Henderson |
RB | 59 | 55 | 61 | 11 | 33.77 | |
| 14 | Marvin Harrison Jr. |
WR | 67 | 72 | 71 | 14 | 30.12 | |
| 15 | Courtland Sutton |
WR | 72 | 77 | 77 | 10 | 28.16 | |
| 16 | RJ Harvey |
RB | 77 | 85 | 88 | 10 | 26.41 | |
| 17 | Chuba Hubbard |
RB | 78 | 74 | 78 | 5 | 26.08 | |
| 18 | Makai Lemon |
WR | 93 | 91 | 91 | 10 | 21.87 | |
| 19 | Jake Ferguson |
TE | 104 | 114 | 120 | 14 | 19.47 | |
| 20 | Jordan Addison |
WR | 107 | 105 | 96 | 6 | 18.89 | |
| 21 | Dalton Kincaid |
TE | 109 | 107 | 97 | 7 | 18.52 | |
| 22 | Jayden Reed |
WR | 112 | 111 | 114 | 11 | 17.99 |
