Every fantasy football season produces a handful of players whose hype sends their draft stock soaring. While it’s easy to get caught up in the excitement, winning drafts is often about knowing when to pass. Here are five players to fade at their current ADPs.
Tetairoa McMillan, WR – Carolina Panthers
Tetairoa McMillan looks like a future star, but WR16 is simply too rich for my blood. He turned in an excellent rookie season with 70 catches, 1,014 yards, and seven touchdowns, yet that only translated to WR20 in fantasy points per game.
The issue isn’t McMillan’s talent—it’s the offense around him. Carolina projects as one of the league’s slower, run-first offenses, and Bryce Young has failed to eclipse 200 passing yards in over half of his career starts. There’s also reason to believe McMillan’s target share won’t be quite as dominant after Jalen Coker emerged down the stretch. Following Carolina’s Week 14 bye, the two posted nearly identical target shares (23% vs. 22%), with Coker actually earning a larger share of the team’s end-zone targets.
McMillan should once again lead the Panthers in targets, but he’s already being drafted as if another step forward is inevitable. With limited passing volume and more target competition than last year’s numbers suggest, I’d rather let someone else pay full price.
Jayden Daniels, QB – Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels has legitimate overall QB1 upside, but I’m not willing to draft him at his current ADP. His rookie season showcased the elite dual-threat ability that made him a fantasy superstar, averaging 21.5 fantasy points per game. However, injuries to his knee, ankle, and elbow limited him to just seven games in Year 2, where he averaged only 16.8 fantasy points per contest. Expecting him to immediately bounce back to his rookie form is a risky bet.
Daniels also enters 2026 with more change than most fantasy managers seem to realize. Kliff Kingsbury is gone, meaning he’ll be learning a new offensive system, and while Stefon Diggs gives Washington another proven weapon alongside Terry McLaurin, it wouldn’t be surprising if the coaching staff reduced Daniels’ rushing workload after last year’s injuries.
There’s no denying Daniels has the talent to finish among fantasy’s elite quarterbacks. The problem is that his current ADP leaves almost no margin for error. If he falls short of that rookie-level production you’ll likely struggle to get a return on your investment at a position where quality starters can be found much later in drafts.
Cam Skattebo, RB – New York Giants
Cam Skattebo’s rise up draft boards hasn’t necessarily been a surprise this offseason, but I’m not convinced his RB19 price reflects the amount of risk involved. Before suffering a season-ending ankle injury, he looked like a future fantasy star, averaging top-10 production through the first half of the year. That upside is real, but it came in just eight games before a serious injury ended his season.
While Skattebo is expected to be fully healthy for Week 1, anticipating him to immediately handle another heavy workload feels aggressive. His all-out running style is part of what makes him so effective, but it also exposes him to more punishment than most backs. Those durability concerns resurfaced Friday after Skattebo left practice with what was believed to be a left leg injury.
With a new coaching staff and uncertainty over how the Giants will split touches between Skattebo and Tyrone Tracy, there’s more downside here than his ADP suggests. I love the player. I just don’t love the cost.
Colston Loveland, TE – Chicago Bears
Colston Loveland has all the tools to become one of fantasy football’s best tight ends, but his TE3 ADP leaves almost no room for error. After a slow start to his rookie season, he caught fire down the stretch and carried that momentum into the playoffs, making him one of this year’s most popular breakout picks. The problem is that fantasy managers are drafting him as if that late-season production is guaranteed to continue over a full season.
Even the NFL’s best tight ends rarely produce at the same level as elite wide receivers and running backs, making it difficult to justify spending a fourth-round pick on Loveland. There’s no questioning his talent or his fit in Ben Johnson’s offense, but Chicago still has plenty of mouths to feed. Caleb Williams will have Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and a strong running game at his disposal, making it hard to envision the type of target volume needed for Loveland to truly separate himself.
I expect Loveland to finish as a fantasy TE1. I’d just be much more comfortable taking him in the sixth round than passing on a quality RB2 or WR2 in the fourth.
Rashee Rice, WR – Kansas City Chiefs
Rashee Rice has proven he can produce like a fantasy WR1 when he’s on the field, but that’s become the biggest problem—he hasn’t been on the field enough. Between injuries and a suspension, Rice has appeared in just 12 games over the past two seasons, yet he’s still being drafted as WR11. That’s an aggressive investment for a player with so many unanswered questions surrounding his availability.
Even if Rice is ready for Week 1, fantasy managers are betting that his knee recovery goes smoothly, he avoids further disciplinary issues, and he immediately returns to being Patrick Mahomes’ top target. That’s a lot to assume for a second- or third-round pick.
I still believe Rice has the talent to finish as a fantasy WR1. I just can’t justify drafting him near his ceiling when there are similarly talented receivers available in the same range with far fewer question marks.
