Every year, a handful of players massively outperform their ADP, and finding those players can be the difference between a good team and a championship roster. With draft season around the corner, here are 5 sleepers I’m targeting who have a legitimate chance to smash their current ADP.
WR Josh Downs – Indianapolis Colts
Josh Downs is one of my favorite sleepers going into the 2026 season. The biggest reason? Opportunity. With Michael Pittman Jr. gone, a significant chunk of targets should funnel Downs’ way. Colts are expected to expand his role, and the same goes for Alec Pierce, but Pierce hasn’t logged a single practice thus far this summer, and I believe the overall talent is better with Downs.
Expected to expand into two-wide receiver sets, and Shane Steichen has already talked about moving Downs around in formations and getting them the ball more often. In 2025, Downs had a 24% target rate, the highest among Colts WRs and TEs. He ranked 20th among WRs in PFF grade and 20th in average separation score per. If the increased role translates to consistent volume, I could see him posting 75-90 catches, 850-1000 yards, and 5-6 TDs this season. He’s going in the 8th round and, in some formats, the 9th; I will gladly take the chance at this current cost.
RB Jordan Mason Minnesota Vikings
Mason quietly led the Vikings in rushing last season with 758 yards and 6 touchdowns on 159 carries, averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry. The biggest appeal is his role and upside. Mason can handle a bigger workload and profiles as an early down and goal-line option. There have already been many reports that he’s been taking first-team reps over Aaron Jones, and Jones is entering his age-32 season, and efficiencies have dropped.
If Jones were to miss more time, or if the Vikings decide to lessen his role, Mason has RB2 upside in an offense I expect to be much better this year, with Kyler Murray under center. He’s the exact type of late-round RB I want on my roster that could easily be a flex play. I would not be shocked if he’s this year’s Javonte Williams.
WR Jayden Reed Green Bay Packers
2025 season was essentially a lost year due to injuries – Reed played just 7 games, finishing with 19 catches for 207 yards and 1 TD… Gross. But don’t forget what he did in his first two seasons. A total of 119 catches, 1,650 yards, and 14 TDs, and that was with a run heavy/ crowded wide receiver room.
Doubs and Wicks are gone. Packers’ offense has plenty of uncertainty at WR. There’s been a lot of hype around Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but I believe the general public is undervaluing Reed. We could see him in more two-wide receiver sets/ have more playing time with a heavily vacated WR room. He’s already shown us WR2 production before, but he is being drafted closer to a WR3/WR4 range. I would not be surprised if the Packers decide to pass more and Reed ends up finishing as a top 25 fantasy WR.
RB Bucky Irving Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This one’s going to get a lot of hate, but I truly believe Bucky Irving is being looked at as a bust for 2026. He’s shown league-winning talent as a rookie, finishing with 1,122 yards and 8 TDs while in the pass game, and 47 catches for almost 400 yards. But injuries derailed 2025 for not just him but the entire Bucs offense. But in his rookie season, those numbers were in a time-share…so what’s making this situation different in 2026?
Sure, Kenny Gainwell may be a better player than Rachaad White, but again, Bucky doesn’t need 70% of the snaps to be effective. New OC Zac Robinson has already been talking him up as a “stud” and wants to keep him on the field as much as possible even if Gainwell and Irving are out there together. If he stays healthy, I think he has legitimate top-12 upside at the position. If I can grab him in the 4-5 turn, that’s an absolute steal; don’t overthink it.
RB J.K. Dobbins Denver Broncos
There’s no denying Dobbins was extremely efficient last year before his season-ending injury. In just 10 games he played, he rushed for 772 yards on 153 carries – averaging 5.0 yards per carry with 4 TDs. His two drawbacks are an extensive injury history and a crowded backfield with R.J. Harvey and newly added rookie Jonah Coleman. But let’s not forget Sean Payton made it a focus point to re-sign Dobbins this offseason. This is his guy!
Dobbins has been running well in camp and has been taking first-team reps. I am not worried about this backfield split. He will 100% be the early down and goal-line back for this high-powered Denver offense. If he can stay healthy, he will easily get 200+ carries and find the end zone a minimum of 7 times. He gave us all a pinky promise that he plans to play all 17 games this season. It’s definitely a risk, but he’s going in the 8th round, which seems incredibly wrong. He has clear RB2 upside at a discount, and there is a world where he can finish as a legitimate RB1 if he gets the majority of Denver’s work.
