The Los Angeles Dodgers have been the talk of the MLB world for the past week. After winning the trade deadline by making the big move for Tarik Skubal, many thought they were a lock to take home their third straight World Series. But instead, the team has struggled. In August, they are 2-9 and have not looked like the unstoppable team everyone thought they would be. Now cold streaks happen, and this could be nothing more than a blip. But they no longer feel like the unstoppable juggernaut.
One of the most concerning parts of the Dodgers has been the play of Mookie Betts. He is in the middle of the worst offensive season of his career. Sure, he has missed some time this season due to injury. But with how he’s played and his age, it raises some concerns. It has caused many to wonder if we are witnessing the beginning of his fall off. But when you dive into the numbers, these claims are exaggerated.
The Concerns About Mookie Betts are Overblown
In the 82 games Betts has played in, he’s slashed .229/.286/.389 with 13 home runs, 36 RBIs, and an OPS+ of 86. Outside of the COVID-shortened 2020 season, all of these numbers would be new career lows for Betts. It could also be the first time that Betts has had an OPS+ under 100 in his career. It is the second straight season Betts has seen a regression in stats. Taking another step back makes you think this is not just a cold streak. It is the start of his decline as a player.
But when you look at his Baseball Savant page, it appears that Betts’ numbers have more to do with him being unlucky rather than him declining. He’s currently swinging the bat at 69.8 mph, which is right in line with what it’s been throughout his career. Now, sure, he’s never had a fast swing, but one of the first signs of a declining player is his swing getting slower. With no big dip in bat speed, it shows that Betts still has the physical tools that made him an MVP-caliber player.
The quality of contact has also improved this season. He has a 38.4 Hardhit% this season, which is nearly a three percent increase from last season. His exit velocity is also at 90.4 mph, which is a mile and a half more than last season. The poor numbers are not due to poor quality of contact. He is improving in that regard and returning to what it was at the beginning of his career. If Betts was regressing, the type of contact he makes would be going down, not up. He would not be getting the exit velocity he’s been getting.
His expected numbers also show he’s been unlucky this season. He has a .272 expected batting average, which ranks in the 72nd percentile. He also has an expected slugging percentage of .423, which ranks in the 62nd percentile. While this is not a perfect stat, it shows that Betts’ numbers should be at least 20 to 25 points better than they currently are. That is not a sign of regression; it’s the result of getting robbed and having outs that should be hits. If things start to break his way, his numbers should skyrocket.
While Betts’ struggles hurt the Dodgers, it is not a sign of him declining as a player. His struggles this season seem to be more about getting unlucky than his skills regressing.
