Running back is one of the easiest positions to sink your fantasy football team before the season even starts. The difference between hitting on an early-round running back and spending premium draft capital on someone who loses touches, regresses in efficiency, or gets hurt can completely change how your roster looks by October.
That doesn’t mean these are bad players. In most cases, I’m fading the price more than the talent. Christian McCaffrey could finish as the RB1 again. Bucky Irving could rediscover his rookie form. Cam Skattebo could pick up exactly where he left off. But each of these five running backs carries enough risk that I’m willing to let someone else pay for the ceiling in 2026.
1. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey finished as the RB1 in fantasy points per game last season, so predicting him to fall completely outside the RB1 tier sounds ridiculous. That’s exactly why it’s one of my hottest takes. McCaffrey led the NFL with 413 regular-season touches, including 311 carries and 102 receptions, before adding even more work during San Francisco’s playoff run. We’ve seen this workload pattern before. He handled 403 touches in 2019 before injuries limited him to 10 combined games over the next two seasons. He then accumulated 417 touches across 19 regular-season and playoff games in 2023 before appearing in only four games the following year. McCaffrey turned 30 this offseason, and we’re once again asking him to immediately follow one of the largest workloads in football with another elite season.
The concern isn’t solely injury risk either. McCaffrey has averaged 4.0 yards per carry or fewer in consecutive seasons, finishing last year at just 3.9 despite playing in Kyle Shanahan’s offense. According to Fantasy Points Data, McCaffrey ranked 35th in explosive run rate, 26th in missed tackle rate, and 40th in yards after contact per attempt last season. PFF also gave him a 69.1 rushing grade, which ranked 51st out of 55 qualifying running backs. His receiving role remains elite enough to overcome almost all of those problems, which is why this take can absolutely look terrible if he stays healthy. But at age 30, immediately following another enormous workload and with the rushing efficiency already declining, I’m betting the wear finally catches up with him enough to push him outside the top 12.
2. Travis Etienne Jr., New Orleans Saints
Travis Etienne had a major bounce-back season last year, finishing with 1,107 rushing yards, 1,399 total yards, and 13 touchdowns while producing as a borderline RB1. The problem is that I don’t think the fantasy finish tells the entire story. Six of Etienne’s 13 touchdowns came through the air despite catching only 36 passes, giving him the second-most receiving touchdowns among running backs. That’s a number I’m not willing to project again. The rushing efficiency wasn’t particularly impressive either. According to Fantasy Points Data, Etienne ranked 37th in explosive run rate, 31st in missed tackle rate, and 34th in yards after contact per attempt. Jacksonville was able to overcome that by feeding him 296 touches, but I’m not convinced New Orleans gives him that same combination of volume and scoring opportunities for an entire season.
Etienne should actually open the year with a massive opportunity because Alvin Kamara is expected to miss roughly four to six weeks with an MCL injury. That could make Etienne look like a great pick early in the season, but my concern is what happens once Kamara returns. Kamara remains one of the better receiving backs in football and should immediately threaten Etienne’s passing-down work, which was already declining before he left Jacksonville. Etienne has caught 39 or fewer passes in consecutive seasons, and last year’s six receiving touchdowns helped cover up that loss of volume. I think he can start the season hot and still disappoint relative to where he’s being drafted. I’d rather target running backs whose roles have a chance to grow as the season progresses instead of paying for what could be Etienne’s high-water mark during the first month.
3. Cam Skattebo, New York Giants
Cam Skattebo was one of the best stories of the 2025 rookie class before his season ended after only eight games. He finished with 410 rushing yards, 207 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns while averaging 16.0 PPR points per game. There was plenty to like. Skattebo earned an 80.5 overall PFF grade and forced 22 missed tackles on only 101 carries. But the fantasy production was also stronger than some of the underlying rushing numbers. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while PFF charted him with 3.04 yards after contact per attempt and only 10 runs of at least 10 yards. PlayerProfiler also ranked him 42nd at the position in true yards per carry. Skattebo was good as a rookie, but I don’t think the efficiency was dominant enough to ignore everything else we’re asking him to overcome.
The biggest concern is what we’re paying for coming off such a significant injury. Skattebo suffered a devastating ankle dislocation and fracture that required surgery and ended his rookie season. He’s completed his recovery and is preparing for Week 1, which is obviously encouraging, but the Giants also added Najee Harris and Skattebo hasn’t consistently operated in the same receiving and third-down role he had as a rookie. That’s important because his fantasy production wasn’t built solely on rushing volume. Skattebo averaged three receptions and nearly 26 receiving yards per game while scoring seven touchdowns in eight appearances. He should still lead this backfield, but his current price assumes he maintains the receiving work, controls the valuable goal-line opportunities, returns to his pre-injury form, and stays healthy. That’s a lot to bake into an RB2 price for a player coming off only eight NFL games.
4. Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucky Irving’s rookie season was incredible. He rushed for 1,122 yards at 5.4 yards per carry, caught 47 passes, and looked like one of the most elusive running backs in football. Last season was almost the complete opposite. Irving was limited to 10 games because of foot and shoulder injuries and averaged just 3.4 yards per carry on 173 attempts. PFF graded him 49th out of 55 qualifying running backs as a rusher, while his yards after contact per attempt fell from over four yards as a rookie to roughly 2.4. Even after returning from injury, the explosiveness never really came back. Over his final six games, Irving ranked 45th among qualifying backs in yards per carry, 41st in explosive run rate, 45th in yards after contact per attempt, and 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt.
Irving is fully healthy entering Week 1, so the injury isn’t my primary reason for fading him. Kenneth Gainwell is. Gainwell is coming off a season where he produced 1,023 yards from scrimmage, caught 73 passes, and scored eight total touchdowns for Pittsburgh. Tampa Bay didn’t pay him this offseason to simply watch Irving from the sideline. Todd Bowles has openly called Irving the starter while describing Gainwell as the “1B,” and Gainwell’s ability as a receiver and pass protector gives him multiple ways to stay on the field. Sean Tucker can also remain involved around the goal line. I still think Irving is the best running back in this backfield, but that’s different from believing he’s worth his current price. I’m not interested in paying for the 2024 version when the 2025 efficiency fell off a cliff and the competition for touches has only gotten stronger.
5. TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots
TreVeyon Henderson’s rookie season looks much better if you look at the full-year numbers than it did for fantasy managers actually starting him every week. Henderson finished with 911 rushing yards, 10 total touchdowns, and averaged 5.1 yards per carry, but some of his biggest performances came while Rhamondre Stevenson wasn’t available. Henderson exploded for 147 rushing yards and two touchdowns in Week 10 before scoring three more times the following week. Without Stevenson in the lineup from Weeks 9 through 11, Henderson averaged 19 touches and 110 total yards. With Stevenson active, those numbers dropped to just 11.2 touches and 57.2 total yards per game. The ceiling was obvious. The problem was consistently getting enough opportunities to reach it.
That’s why I don’t understand drafting Henderson as though a Year 2 takeover is inevitable. Stevenson was actually the better running back across several of the efficiency metrics I care about last season. According to Fantasy Points Data, Henderson ranked 12th among qualifying backs in explosive run rate, but only 32nd in missed tackle rate and 42nd in yards after contact per attempt. Stevenson finished ahead of him in all three categories while also producing better numbers as a receiver and remaining the more trusted option in pass protection. Nothing this offseason has suggested Stevenson is disappearing either, and Henderson is now dealing with an ankle injury and had yet to return to practice as of September 3. Henderson is explosive enough to produce monster weeks and would have huge upside if Stevenson misses time, but that’s different from projecting him to outright win this backfield. I’m not paying an RB2 price for a running back whose best fantasy stretch last season came when the player ahead of him wasn’t on the field.
