One week of NFL football can completely change the way fantasy managers view a player, but that doesn’t mean we should overreact. Week 1 is about identifying why a player struggled. Was it bad efficiency? A lack of opportunities? A concerning role? Or simply a game script that didn’t go their way? Is it time to panic?
Several highly drafted fantasy players left managers scratching their heads after Week 1. Some deserve legitimate concern, while others simply need a little patience.
Here are a few players I’m watching closely and my panic meter for each.
Omarion Hampton – Panic Meter 4/10
Hampton’s year 2 debut wasn’t exactly what fantasy managers were hoping for.
Against Arizona, Hampton played just 57% of offensive snaps, posted a 41% success rate, ranked 41st in YPC, and ran only 10 routes without seeing a single target. He finished with 12 carries for 43 rushing yards and a touchdown, so the box score wasn’t completely disastrous, but the underlying usage wasn’t particularly encouraging. Keaton Mitchell ran more routes (11) with 31% offensive snaps. Something to montorting if they are down who’s the passing back.
The biggest concern is the lack of involvement in the passing game. If Hampton is going to eventually become the true three-down back fantasy managers drafted him to be, those targets need to start showing up.
That said, I’m nowhere close to panicking.
The Chargers have much better matchups coming up against the Raiders and Bills, giving Hampton a couple of opportunities to get things moving before the schedule becomes significantly more difficult later in the season.
Verdict: 4/10. There are definitely some red flags, but one game isn’t enough to abandon Hampton. I’m holding and waiting to see if his snap share and passing-game involvement grow.
De’Von Achane – Panic Meter 2/10
Achane is the easiest player on this list for me to stay calm about.
The Raiders looked like an extremely favorable matchup coming into Week 1, yet Achane couldn’t get much going on the ground or through the air. He finished with 11 carries for 36 yards and added 4 catches for 30 yards, failing to find the end zone. That’s obviously disappointing when you’re expecting Achane to be one of the most explosive fantasy players in football, and you spent a 2nd-round draft pick on him.
But here’s the important part: he still received 15 total opportunities. Sure, it wasn’t 40 like we heard this off-season, but he’s going to be involved.
The Dolphins need to figure out how to consistently manufcture touhces fr him, especially in the passing game. Achane is too dynamic to simply hand him the ball up the middle and hope for the best with his 5’9” and 195lbs frame. Miami’s offense struggled as a whole in a 27-13 loss, with the team managing only 65 rushing yards total.
Verdict: 2/10. I’m not concerned about Achane’s talent whatsoever. The Dolphins just need to figure out how to get their best offensive weapon into space.
Colston Loveland – Panic Meter 5/10
This one is definitely worth monitoring.
The Bears just scored 59 points against Carolina. They generated over 550 yards of offense. D’Andre Swift scored three touchdowns. Caleb Williams scored a total of 4 touchdowns. And somehow, Colston Loveland was basically nowhere to be found.
Loveland finished without a catch despite seeing two targets, but the usage underneath the surface is actually not terrible, as he was looked at in the red zone. He led the Bears pass catchers with 36 passing snaps and 32 routes, meaning he was on the field and running routes…but he simply did not get the ball.
The bigger concern was Cole Kmet.
Kmet played 57% of the Bears’ total snaps, ran over 20 routes, and saw three targets, one of them resulting in a touchdown. So there is some volatility to monitor here. But I’m not selling Loveland. In fact, this could be one of the better opportunities to buy him at a lower price than you paid for on draft day. The routes are there; the offense is clearly capable of producing fantasy points, and Loveland’s talent hasn’t suddenly disappeared because he went catchless in Week 1.
Verdict: 5/10. No full-blown panic, but concerning that he played the most snaps and Kalif Raymond, Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, and Kyle Monangai all saw more targets, catches, and yards. If his manager is already frustrated, I’d be looking to buy.
Marvin Harrison Jr. – Panic Meter 7/10
This is the one that actually scares me.
Harrison finished Arizona’s Week 1 win over the Chargers with just 1 catch for 33 yards on 3 targets. And it’s not just the lack of production. He was out-targeted by Trey McBride(13), Michael Wilson(7), Kendrick Bourne(8), and rookie RB Jeremiyah Love(4). Bourne led all wide receivers with 8 targets, while Wilson saw 7.
The frustrating part is that Harrison had an entire offseason to work with Jacoby Brissett. This wasn’t a situation where we could blame a lack of chemistry or limited preparation. He simply struggled to get open. Arizona was a 9.5-point underdog heading into this matchup, so the expectation was for Brissett to throw, and he did, finishing with 277 passing yards, yet only 33 going to Marv.
And now some of those training camp clips we saw this summer from Harrison struggling to consistently command targets and perform suddenly don’t look quite as meaningless. One game isn’t enough to write off a player with Harrison’s talent, but target hierarchy matters, and Week 1 painted a concerning picture.
Verdict: 7/10. I’m not dropping him. I’m not necessarily selling for pennies on the dollar either. But if you drafted Harrison as a locked-in WR2 or a Weekly Flex, you have every right to be concerned.
MarShawn Lloyd – Panic Meter 4/10
Lloyd’s first extended NFL opportunity didn’t exactly go according to plan. He finished against Minnesota with 13 carries for 37 yards, 2.8 YPC, and caught 0 passes on his lone target. The matchup deserves some context, though. Vikings were one of the tougher run-defense matchups to open the season, and Green Bay’s offensive line struggled; they didn’t establish any run game, posting just a 33.3% rushing success rate.
The bigger concern is the split. Lloyd played just 44% of the snaps and ran 7 routes, while Chris Brooks started and played 56% of the snaps, ran 9 routand had es, 7 carries for 29 yards and 4.14 YPC. Brooks also saw the field frequently because of his reliability in pass protection, an area Lloyd still has to earn Matt Lafleur’s trust in.
Verdict: 4/10. I’m not panicking because the matchup was brutal, and Lloyd clearly established himself as the preferred ball carrier. But he needs to show more, particularly in the passing game and on third downs- if he’s going to carve out any type of role once Josh Jacobs returns. In Jacobs ‘ absence, if Brooks continues playing 50%+ of snaps because of pass protection, Lloyd’s ceiling could be much lower than we hoped.
Final Thoughts
The biggest mistake fantasy managers can make after Week 1 is treating every bad performance the same; I’d be talking about Ja’Mar Chase’s pitiful performance against the Buccaneers. Watch the usage. Watch the routes. Watch the targets. Watch the snap counts.
The box score tells you what happened. The underlying usage tells you whether it’s likely to happen again.
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