Three weeks into the fantasy season, we’re starting to get enough information to separate slow starts from legitimate problems. One bad game can be noise. Three weeks of declining efficiency, changing usage, or a coaching staff moving away from a player? That’s when the panic meter starts moving.
This week’s list features a mix of players who are legitimately trending in the wrong direction and players who had ugly Week 3 performances but still have reasons for optimism. Omarion Hampton is back on the panic meter after appearing in this column Week 1, while Malik Nabers remains more of a situation-based concern than a talent concern. Drake May and Brian Thomas Jr. are approaching the danger zone, while Dalton Kincaid’s Week 3 dud shouldn’t erase the strong usage we’ve seen through the first three weeks.
Here’s where the panic meter stands heading into Week 4.
Omarion Hampton – Panic Meter: 8/10
This is officially becoming a major concern.
Hampton makes his return to the panic meter after already appearing earlier this season, and the biggest issue isn’t simply that he struggled against Buffalo. It’s the way the Chargers are using the backfield.
Hampton finished Week 3 with 15 carries for 56 yards (3.7 YPC), 1 target, and no touchdown. More concerning, he played just 29 snaps compared to 26 for Keaton Mitchell, turning what was expected to be Hampton’s backfield into something much closer to a committee. Mitchell also ran a route on roughly twice as many dropbacks as Hampton. And the Chargers weren’t trailing in this game; they had a lead at one point.
Through three games, Hampton has 50 carries for 193 yards- just 3.9 yards per carry-while Mitchell has averaged 5.0 yards per carry on his 17 attempts. The running scheme McDaniel wants to run is simple and doesn’t fit Hampton’s rushing style.
And then there’s Kimani Vidal, who has already been incorporated into the offense as well in third-down situations. The Chargers entered the season saying Mitchell and Vidal would have roles, and we’re now seeing that philosophy show up on Sundays.
The Biggest problem is that Hampton isn’t making up for the rushing inefficiency with receiving work. He has just two catches on three targets through three games.
The talent is still there, but fantasy managers drafted Hampton expecting a potential three-down workhorse. Right now, he’s dealing with a backfield that is getting increasingly crowded, an offense that has struggled to create explosive plays, and an efficiency profile that hasn’t been good enough to overcome the lost volume.
8/10 panic. This is no longer just a bad matchup or a slow start. Hampton’s workload needs to stabilize quickly.
Malik Nabers – Panic Meter: 5/10
I’m not ready to panic on Nabers, but there are enough red flags to keep an eye on the situation.
Nabers finished Week 3 with 5 receptions for 26 yards on 6 targets, despite leading the Giants in both targets and receptions. The bigger issue was the environment around him: Jameis Winston completed only 14 of 22 passes for 188 yards and zero touchdowns.
The weather deserves some of the blame. The game was played in a steady light rain with 10 MPH winds, and the Giants’ passing offense never got going.
But we can’t simply blame the weather.
The Giants appear committed to playing a much more conservative style with Winston, and that matters tremendously for Nabers. A receiver with his talent needs aggressive downfield opportunities and consistent volume to produce like the WR1 fantasy managers drafted him to be.
There is also the broader quarterback situation to monitor. The Giants’ decision-making around the position, including the recent signing of J.J. McCarthy, doesn’t exactly provide clarity for Nabers long-term fantasy outlook.
The good news? The talent and usage are still there. Nabers had a 21.3% target share entering Week 3 and a 24.5% first-read share, showing that the Giants still view him as a central part of the offense.
This is much more about quarterback play and offensive philosophy than Nabers suddenly becoming a bad receiver. If you think the Nabers and Winston combo is going to be like Winston and Jerry Jeudy from the 2024 season of fantasy, you’re wrong.
5/10 panic. The talent hasn’t changed. The environment is the concern.
Drake Maye – Panic Meter: 8/10
This one is getting ugly.
Maye followed up two mediocre performances with another rough outing against Jacksonville, completing just 14 of 25 passes for 199 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions in a 35-6 loss. His passer rating was just 48.6.
Through three games, Maye has yet to throw multiple touchdowns in a game and has already thrown six interceptions. His passing efficiency has also been inconsistent, with completion percentages of 69.7%, 63.6%, and 56.0% across the first three games.
The bigger concern is the offense around him.
New England simply doesn’t have enough explosive weapons right now. Defense can devote more attention to slowing down the passing game because the Patriots haven’t consistently generated big plays on the perimeter.
That’s where the schedule becomes important. Last year’s environment made it easier to believe Maye could sustain elite fantasy production, but the early portion of this year’s schedule is showing that the offense may not be as efficient as it was previously.
And we’re still waiting on A.J. Brown to return, which should eventually give Maye a legitimate difference-maker on the outside, instead of Mack Hollins, Romeo Doubs, and Demario Douglas. Until then, however, defenses have fewer reasons to fear the Patriots’ passing attack.
Maye’s fantasy value isn’t dead, but the combination of poor efficiency, turnovers, limited explosiveness, and lack of weapons has pushed this from mild concern into legitimate panic territory.
8/10 panic. I’m not selling Maye for pennies, but I absolutely would not be treating him as an auto start right now.
Brian Thomas Jr. – Panic Meter: 7/10
This is getting dangerously close.
Thomas Week 3 performance was brutal: one catch for 8 yards on one target in Jacksonville’s 35-6 demolition of New England.
That’s not just a bad fantasy performance – that’s a usage problem.
Through three games, Thomas has only 7 receptions for 88 yards and zero touchdowns, averaging 12.6 yards per reception.
The Bigger issue is that Jacksonville appears to be spreading the ball around, and Thomas is no longer operating as the unquestioned focal point of the receiver room, not even option 2 or 3. The emergence of rookie wideout Josh Cameron is particularly concernign fr his role, with reports noting that Thomas is no longer the most important receiver in the Jaguars’ offense.
However, I’m not going full panic just yet. Hear me out.
Thomas has dealt with some extremely difficult matchups to open the year, and Jacksonville’s offense has enough weapons that target distribution can fluctuate from week to week. His talent hasn’t disappeared, and there should be easier days ahead.
But the margin for error is getting smaller.
If Thomas continues seeing limited targets while Cameron and the rest of the Jacksonville receiving corps command significant opportunities, this 7/10 panic meter could quickly become a 9.
7/10 panic. Difficult schedule buys him some time, but we need to see the Jaguar get more involved…Maybe even a change of scenery.
Dalton Kincaid – Panic Meter: 2/10
Don’t overreact to this one.
Kincaid had his first true dud of the season in Week 3, catching just 2 of 3 targets for 38 yards against the Chargers.
But the important part is the three-game sample.
Before Week 3, Kincaid had opened the season with 5 catches for 130 yards followed by 7 catches for 95 yards and a touchdown. That’s 12 catches for 225 yards in his first two games.
So yes, Week 3 was bad. But the overall usage is exactly what fantasy managers wanted to see entering the season.
Kincaid remains heavily involved in one of the league’s most productive passing offenses with Josh Allen. The Week 2 explosion was also helped by the absence of D.J. Moore, so managers shouldn’t expect 7-catch, 95-yard performances every week.
That’s why I’m keeping the panic meter extremely low.
This is a buy-the-dip situation rather than a sell-the-player situation. Kincaid’s Week 3 production fell off, but one bad game doesn’t erase the role he’s established through the first three weeks.
2/10 panic. The production was ugly, but the underlying opportunity remains strong. Expect better days ahead for one of Josh Allen’s primary receiving options.
What To Do Now?
Depending on your current record, I consider making some points after week 4 if you’re still winless. Whether it’s dropping a player, making a two-for-one trade, or needing more depth, a quarter of the season will be gone, and you’ll be behind the eight ball. But ask yourself whether you can put up with another dud week from any of these guys. The time to act is now.
