To recap last week, Alabama put it on South Carolina early. With two minutes left in the second quarter, the Tide led 35-3 after a Red Morgan pick-six. QB Keelon Russell passed for 365 yards on 13.5 YPA and totaled 5 TDs on the day. WR Ryan Coleman-Williams continued his streak of great football, grabbing 5 receptions for 98 yards and 2 TDs in his third straight game without a drop. LB Luke Metz continued his All-SEC campaign with 13 total tackles.
Alabama once again outperformed its Vegas team’s point total and covered the spread. My 41-23 prediction was a slight underestimation, as the Tide rolled 49-18. It’s on to week five, as Alabama will travel to Starkville to take on the red-hot Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Kane Wommack vs Wide-Choice Offenses
Over the last two seasons with Alabama, DC Kane Wommack has typically performed well against the wide-choice offense. In his few games against it, Wommack has allowed just 5.3 YPA and 1.5 Points Per Possession. Meaning, in a 12-possession game, wide-choice offenses are scoring just 18 points against Wommack. In these matchups, his defenses are averaging 3.7 sacks and 6.3 TFLs per game.
Now, Wommack allows 4.6 YPC against the wide-choice. Typically, you’ll see defensive coordinators do this by design against this specific offense. The spread-out style of the wide-choice offense forces you to play a 5-man or 6-man box in the open field. Most defensive coordinators find themselves running 2-high safeties constantly to protect against explosives.
The catch is that this offense stalls in the red zone. Because of the fear of explosives, defenses tend to allow rushing yards to the wide-choice, rather than giving up the explosive plays that this offense needs to survive. Mississippi State ranks in the top 12 in nearly every major offensive metric. However, it ranks #56 in red zone scoring. Another example is the 2025 Tennessee Volunteers, who finished the season ranked #73 in red zone offense despite ranking top 10 in points per play, points per game, passing yards per game, and 3rd down conversion percentage. You’ll likely see Wommack concede the open-field run game, allowing his defense to create more favorable scenarios as the field shrinks.
The Alabama Offense
You’ll see in my prediction that I have Alabama scoring in the upper-40s. Alabama keeps outperforming expectations on offense, and I see no signs of slowing down. Few defensive units in college football can hold down the Tide’s offense.
Mississippi State will run a 3-3-5 defense for most of the game. This scheme is a bad fit against Alabama’s rushing attack. Alabama will likely pin & pull or counter its way around the edges of a 3-man front. Mississippi State will need to stunt its front to create chaos, but Alabama’s run scheme is designed to beat run stunts that overwhelm standard inside zone play.
In the passing game, the pass rush will be the name of the game for Mississippi State. Its secondary, aside from Kelley Jones, isn’t good enough to cover Alabama’s wide receivers. The Bulldogs will need to get after Keelon Russell, who seems unstoppable right now. Mississippi State will play its fair share of Cover 3, similar to South Carolina’s defense, which Alabama’s offense beat like they weren’t even there.
Kamario Taylor
Taylor is the hottest topic in college football. Nick Saban recently called Taylor “the truth and the light.” It’s hard not to love Taylor’s overall game. He’s massive, strong, fast, instinctual, and throws a gorgeous intermediate-deep ball. He’s off to a blazing start, throwing for 1,192 yards and 14 TDs in 4 games.
Can Kamario Taylor avoid committing a turnover early in the game? He’s made just six career starts, and Alabama will be the toughest, certainly the fastest, defense that he has faced. Alabama players like Red Morgan and Zabien Brown have become known for intercepting RPO routes over the middle or hitch routes on the sideline. Taylor will use both throws early and often, as they make up a decent chunk of Mississippi State’s passing game.
Taylor is likely foaming at the mouth to throw the deep ball against Alabama. FSU threw multiple explosive passes, and South Carolina hit Nyck Harbor for an explosive touchdown. I expect Mississippi State to challenge Dijon Lee downfield. But Alabama will likely be extra wary of the deep ball given its last two games.
Prediction
Alabama: 49
Mississippi State: 23
Alabama gets six offensive touchdowns and one defensive touchdown in this one. I expect Mississippi State to put up a good chunk of yardage, but they lose points to field goals and turnover-on-downs once they cross into the plus territory.
Kane Wommack has faced Tennessee’s wide-choice offense twice in the last two seasons. He allowed 24 and 20 points in those two games. While I believe Kamario Taylor is better than Nico Iamaleava and Joey Aguilar (Tennessee’s QBs in those games), I still favor Tennessee’s personnel at RB, OL, and WR in those games.
Fortunately for us spectators, the weather is clearing up as we get closer to kickoff. I expect to see a lot of total yardage on the box score.
