Monday Night Football features two juggernaut offenses as Josh Allen and the 3-1 Buffalo Bills travel to Los Angeles to take on Matthew Stafford’s 2-2 Rams.
Stats to Know
*The rankings mentioned were before the outcomes of Sunday’s games*
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills rank 8th in the league in total yards per game (386.3) and 1st in points per game (31.8) after a 3-1 start to the season, leading the AFC East. The Los Angeles Rams enter tonight’s matchup ranked 2nd in the league in yards per game (417.0). The Rams are surprisingly much lower in points per game, ranking 19th (21.3)—about a 31-yard advantage for the Rams but a 10-point advantage for the Bills.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 27th in yards allowed per game (372.3). The Bills rank 25th in points allowed per game (26.8). Los Angeles, meanwhile, ranks 2nd in yards allowed per game (247.5) and 9th in points allowed per game (20.8) through four weeks. That leaves Buffalo allowing 125 more yards and 6 more points per game than the Rams.
Let’s average these numbers. The Bills’ offense should total around 316 yards and 27 points, while the Rams’ offense should total around 395 yards and 24 points tonight. This gives the Bills a slim 3-point advantage but a noticeable 79-yard edge overall, with the Vegas line at +3.5 and not favoring Buffalo. The Rams are 2-2 covering the spread, while the Bills are 3-1 covering. Betting the Bills at +3.5 is fairly favorable considering the Bills would have a 3-point advantage given the averages listed above; I’d still be nervous as I think the Rams’ offense is too much for the current state of the Bills’ defense.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold
As always, let’s look at some hot and cold players on both teams heading into this playoff matchup.
- 🔥 Keon Coleman deserves credit where credit is due. Yes, he remains inconsistent, with 1 reception in weeks 1 and 3 but 6 in weeks 2 and 4; heroics last Sunday kept the Bills in it until the very end, with 116 yards and a TD. The Bills may lean on him more with DJ Moore being listed as questionable and Joshua Palmer already being out.
- 🥶 Dalton Kincaid exploded at the start of the season but has since cooled, for only 45 yards over the past two games combined; Kincaid needs to stay a focal point if the Bills want to target the middle of the field.
- 🔥 Kyren Williams has shut down the Blake Corum believers in fantasy football, with 467 total yards through four weeks, an average of 117 per game. Williams is also averaging 5.44 YPC and should see another impressive day tomorrow against an average Bills run defense.
- 🥶 Aaron Donald came out of retirement to ring chase after the Los Angeles Rams acquired Myles Garrett via a trade back in June; however, Garrett was placed on IR after Week 1, and Donald has yet to record a sack in three games (he was out last week).
Game Predictions
The Buffalo Bills lose a nail-biter 42-41; Josh Allen has a rushing TD, but Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are too much, going for over 200 receiving yards combined. Questions about the defense will only grow after tonight’s game.
Other Content
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