Jayden Daniels under 201.5 passing yards is my favorite bet for Thursday night at MetLife Stadium. I also like under 41.5 and Cam Skattebo over 50.5 rushing yards, though I’d check Skattebo’s workload before betting. Washington has a path to an upset, and Daniels ran all over the Giants in their first meeting, but the prices on those two picks are tougher to justify.
| Pick | Price | Sportsbook | My call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels under 201.5 passing yards | -112 | DraftKings | Best bet |
| Under 41.5 total points | -115 | DraftKings | Bet |
| Cam Skattebo over 50.5 rushing yards | -114 | DraftKings | Bet if his usual workload is expected |
| Washington Commanders moneyline | +120 | DraftKings | Pass at this price |
| Jayden Daniels over 5.5 rushing attempts | -120 | FanDuel | Pass at this price |
Jayden Daniels Under 201.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Daniels threw for 199 yards on 25 attempts in the first meeting with New York. He also ran nine times for 103 yards and two touchdowns, so Washington had plenty of ways to move the ball without asking him to throw 35 times. The Giants have allowed just 6.2 yards per target, the second-fewest in the league, and a 61.7% completion rate. With Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown, and Jaylin Lane on injured reserve in the supplied matchup notes, Washington has fewer options to stretch the field. The Commanders average 4.61 yards per carry, and New York allows 4.83. If Washington can keep the game close, I expect it to keep attacking on the ground.
The concern is what happens if the Giants build a lead. Daniels has cleared this line in three straight games with 300, 217, and 274 passing yards, and he attempted at least 29 passes in each. I’m betting that New York makes him work for his yards and that Washington keeps his attempts closer to the first meeting. The simulation lands at a median of 184 passing yards and gives the under a 62% chance against a 52.8% break-even rate. That’s the biggest edge on the card.
Under 41.5 Total Points (-115)
Washington’s rushing matchup is a reason to like the under. If the Commanders can move the chains on the ground, they can stay competitive without turning the game into a steady stream of Daniels dropbacks. The Giants also run on 57% of their plays when leading, the fifth-highest rate in the league. Both teams have a reason to keep the ball on the ground while the score is close. Washington’s 42% offensive success rate makes it harder to count on sustained scoring, and Giants games as a favorite since 2025 have averaged 35.8 combined points.
The total has already moved from 42.5 to 41.5. I still like it at the listed number, where the two projections give the under a 55% and 56% chance against a 53.5% break-even rate. That’s a smaller edge than Daniels’ passing under. The risk is that these teams can generate plenty of plays, and a short field or an explosive run can undo several quiet drives. Rain would support the case if it holds through kickoff. I’m comfortable playing 41.5 and would reassess if it drops again.
Cam Skattebo Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Skattebo ran for 59 yards on 13 carries against Washington in Week 5 and cleared 50.5 yards in five of the six games in the supplied sample where he recorded a carry. He doesn’t need to match his 124-yard game against Houston to cash this. At four yards per carry, 13 attempts would get him over the line. The Giants are favored, and their tendency to run with a lead gives him a path to that workload. The simulation projects a median of 60 yards and gives the over a 60% chance.
The workload is the part I’d check before locking it in. The supplied game log has no carries for Skattebo after Week 7, and Devin Singletary handled 40% of New York’s carries over its last two games. Washington also allows just 4.04 yards per carry, so Skattebo could need more than 13 attempts if the Commanders hold up at the line of scrimmage. The other projection gives the over only a 51% chance, below the 53.3% break-even rate. I’d play it at -114 if Skattebo is expected to handle his usual share of the carries. A limited role would take it off my card.
Washington Commanders Moneyline (+120)
Washington’s best chance to win is to lean on its ground game. The Commanders average 4.61 yards per carry, while the Giants allow 4.83. Daniels’ 103 rushing yards in the first meeting showed what Washington can get from its quarterback in this matchup. If the Commanders run efficiently on early downs and keep Daniels out of obvious passing situations, they can keep the game close enough for a late drive to decide it.
I’d still pass at +120. New York has the better overall EPA on both sides of the ball, and Washington is 4–15 straight up as an underdog since 2025. More importantly, +120 requires Washington to win 45.5% of the time to break even. The two estimates in the supplied data are 44% and 40%, which translate to fair prices of about +127 and +150, respectively. I can see Washington winning this game. I’d need a better number to bet on it.
Jayden Daniels Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-120)
Daniels had nine carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns in the first meeting, so there’s a clear case for six attempts against this defense. New York has allowed 3.9 quarterback carries per game, fourth most in the league, and 9.2 yards per scramble. Opposing quarterbacks also went over their rushing-attempt lines in all five games with a tracked line in the supplied sample. If the Giants cover well downfield and Daniels has room to escape, he can get to six without Washington calling many designed runs.
The price asks me to put too much weight on that first meeting. Daniels has gone over 5.5 attempts in only two of six games this season and has logged four, two and four carries in his last three. One projection gives the over a 55% chance, barely above the 54.5% break-even rate. The simulation has it at 40%, with a median of five carries. I’d pass at -120. Scrambles can make this interesting, but I’m more confident in the passing under than I am in Daniels running six times.
Daniels’ passing under and the game under can both benefit from Washington keeping the ball on the ground. Skattebo’s over gets a clearer path if the Giants lead, which makes it a less natural fit with the Washington moneyline. My card is Daniels under 201.5 passing yards and under 41.5 as straight bets, with Skattebo over 50.5 as the third play if his workload checks out.
