Conference Championship week is upon us. We have college football playoff spots on the line in multiple games, playoff seeding in others, and bragging rights in all of them. New blood, such as Indiana and BYU, is looking to claim conference titles. Meanwhile, Alabama and Georgia will face off in what seems like their millionth matchup in the last decade. We’ll be previewing four conference championships, so please settle in.
#3 Georgia vs. #9 Alabama
Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
Spread: Georgia (-2.5)
Over/Under: 47.5
ML: Georgia (-135), Alabama (+114)
The SEC Championship
At this point, everyone is familiar with this matchup. These two teams will meet for the 9th time since 2017. These teams are banged up. Each of them has played five ranked opponents already this season.
Let’s address the obvious: Will Alabama be able to stop Georgia’s run game? Well, Georgia will be without starting center Drew Bobo. How important is Bobo? In Georgia’s recent game against Georgia Tech, Georgia averaged 6.92 YPC with Bobo playing. The Dawgs averaged 3 YPC with backup center Malachi Toliver playing. Georgia had 11 carries of 3 yards or less during Toliver’s playing time. Alabama’s run defense has improved in recent weeks, though Missouri and Tennessee combined for 302 rushing yards against the Crimson Tide back in October.
Will Georgia be able to dent Alabama’s pass defense? In the last matchup, Georgia passed for just 130 yards on 6.5 YPA. Alabama is allowing just 6.2 YPA on the season. QB Gunner Stockton still struggles to push the ball downfield. 43% of his completions have occurred behind the line of scrimmage. All five of his interceptions have occurred on passes of 10+ yards downfield.
Two of the last three matchups in this series have been decided by three points. Seven points decided the other game. Alabama does not fare well in kicking matchups. Conor Talty is just 13/20 on the season. Meanwhile, for Georgia, Peyton Woodring is 15/16.
The importance of kickers increases when both teams excel in redzone defense. Funny enough, these two teams are tied in redzone scoring percentage allowed at 75.86%, which ranks #15 in college football.
#2 Indiana vs. #1 Ohio State
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
Spread: Ohio State (-4)
Over/Under: 47.5
ML: Ohio State (-198), Indiana (+164)
The Big Ten Championship
My perspective on this game will be unique among the rest of the college football media. If you’re an Indiana fan, I suggest you save this preview so you can prove me wrong later.
Most people will say that Indiana has already proven itself as a national contender with a win over Oregon. But Curt Cignetti has now played three top-10 opponents in his time at Indiana. Ohio State beat Indiana last season 38-15 after being up 31-7 in the fourth quarter. Notre Dame beat Indiana last season 27-17 after being up 27-3 in the fourth quarter. Now, Indiana is riding a 10-point win over Oregon. I need to see a close game here before one win outweighs two blowouts.
Ohio State enters the game #3 in the composite talent ranking. Indiana ranks at #72. On defense, Indiana’s DL contains just one player who weighs 300 pounds and zero linebackers who weigh more than 230 pounds. Indiana’s defense will be severely undersized against Ohio State’s physical OL. Ohio State’s OL averages 6’5.25 and 315 pounds. Also, despite losing the game, Oregon’s running backs averaged 6.2 YPC.
On the outside, Ohio State’s size and physicality hold the upper hand. Indiana’s starting cornerbacks are 6’1, 187 pounds, and 5’9, 173 pounds. Indiana’s nickelback is 5’10 190 pounds. For Ohio State, superstar wide receivers Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate are 6’3 225 pounds, and 6’3 200 pounds.
While most teams use the RPO sparingly, Indiana still lives by it. Most Big Ten teams prefer to play in the trenches. Their defenses are not equipped to consistently stop the RPO. Ohio State’s is. DC Matt Patricia is a 3x Super Bowl Champion, and he has built one of the best defenses in Ohio State history. Ohio State has college football’s best RPO defender, Caleb Downs. Downs has the freedom to play wherever he desires on the field. He thrives in the box and in the middle of the field, making RPOs difficult to use. In 2024, Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke averaged 253 passing YPG. Ohio State held him to 68 yards on 3.8 YPA.
For Indiana, you need to find a way to use your more undersized DL against Ohio State’s OL. Indiana sacked Oregon QB Dante Moore six times. Ohio State QB Julian Sayin has only been sacked six times all season. Indiana’s edge rushers need to find a way. Whether it’s stunts, speed rushes, or blitzes, Indiana needs to sack Sayin. We have not seen how Sayin performs under intense pass rush. If you force a couple of bad throws for interceptions, there’s your path to victory.
#11 BYU vs. #4 Texas Tech
Location: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX
Spread: Texas Tech (-12.5)
Over/Under: 49.5
ML: Texas Tech (-550), BYU (+410)
The Big 12 Championship
As stated in a previous article, I’m struggling to find ways for BYU to move the ball. In their regular-season matchup, BYU averaged 4.9 YPA and 2.5 YPC. Starting RB LJ Martin was held to 35 yards on 3.5 yards per carry. He averaged 108 YPG in the other 11 games. QB Bear Bachmeier’s 4.9 YPA was extremely low compared to his season average of 8.1 YPA.
Texas Tech running backs totaled 36 carries and 198 yards. Cameron Dickey and J’Koby Williams were able to hold their season averages of 5.5 YPC.
At the start of the fourth quarter, Texas Tech scored a touchdown to make the score 26-0. The game was never close. So, how does BYU make this a game this time around?
BYU needs to play a bend-but-don’t-break defense. You can allow Texas Tech to drive down the field while focusing on not giving up the explosive plays. The key is to force Texas Tech to play offense in the red zone. BYU’s defense ranks #6 in redzone scoring allowed. Texas Tech’s offense ranks #43 in redzone scoring rate.
I know that Texas Tech’s run defense is daunting, but BYU has to have success on the ground. Texas Tech edge rushers David Bailey and Romello Height have 21 sacks combined. Texas Tech has intercepted 14 passes. If BYU commits two turnovers, Texas Tech will win the game. The best way to limit turnovers is to avoid obvious passing situations. Staying in 2nd and medium and 3rd and short prevents the Texas Tech edge rushers from rushing relentlessly.
Duke vs. #17 Virginia
Location: Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC
Spread: Virginia (-4)
Over/Under: 57.5
ML: Virginia (-185), Duke (+154)
The ACC Championship
How about the Duke Blue Devils being in this game? With all of the anticipation for Miami, Georgia Tech, or SMU to be in this game, the Blue Devils have the opportunity to win the conference.
If Duke wins this game, Darian Mensah will be the reason why. Mensah has thrown for 3,450 yards, 8.1 YPA, and 28 TDs. Mensah is a college football playoff-caliber QB, and Duke will win or go home on the arm of Mensah. Unfortunately for Duke, Virginia has already seen Mensah. The Cavaliers held Mensah to 213 yards and 1 TD in their regular-season matchup.
Virginia does not depend on one particular player to win games. Chandler Morris has thrown for 2,586 yards. The two lead running backs average 4.8 and 4.9 YPC. The defense has 30 sacks, 12 INTs, and 10 FFs. The Cavaliers will get production from every aspect of their team.
For Virginia, the Cavaliers are fighting for the right to a college football playoff spot. 2025 is already Virginia’s best season since 1989, and this year’s roster is looking to add to its legacy.
For Duke, the Blue Devils are at the mercy of the college football playoff committee. If the committee wants Duke in the playoffs, it will put them there. Assuming James Madison wins, the committee could choose to put in James Madison and the AAC Championship winner. Regardless, the players on Duke’s roster could bring the program its first ACC title since 1989.
