Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
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Tight Ends to Start
Juwan Johnson NO
Juwan Johnson has been one of the most reliable tight ends this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in eight of 11 games and in each of his last five. Since Week 7, he’s averaged 13 fantasy points per game while turning 30 targets into 23 receptions for 301 yards and two touchdowns. Even last week, he delivered 10.6 PPR points on six catches for 46 yards, maintaining his steady floor. With Alvin Kamara sidelined and Taysom Hill absorbing more backfield work, Johnson’s role has become even more essential. Miami presents an exceptional matchup for him, ranking 30th in pass defense DVOA while allowing seven touchdowns, 760 yards, and 16.8 fantasy PPG to tight ends this season. Over the last four weeks alone, they’ve given up 20.6 PPG, 310 yards, and four touchdowns to the position. All signs point toward Johnson entering Week 13 with one of the safest floors and highest ceilings on the slate.
Given Johnson’s consistent production and Miami’s collapse against tight ends, he’s a must-start fantasy option with legitimate top-five upside. Seven tight ends have already posted at least 10.3 PPR points against the Dolphins, and Johnson’s recent streak suggests he should join that group comfortably. The usage trend with Tyler Shough, averaging 12.9 PPR points in three games together, reinforces the trustworthiness of his role. Miami struggles not only against tight ends but also in the red zone, where Johnson has benefited from stable involvement. With the matchup, volume, and scoring trends all aligned, he belongs in fantasy lineups everywhere in Week 13.
AJ Barner SEA
AJ Barner has quietly carved out a meaningful role in Seattle’s offense, accounting for a 72% route share and an 18% target share heading into last week. Over the last two games, he’s been targeted 15 times by Sam Darnold, converting those into 12 receptions for 88 yards. His usage has spiked precisely when Seattle needed a second option behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and he currently ranks second on the team in targets since Week 5. The Vikings have been one of the more forgiving defenses to tight ends this season, allowing 64 receptions, 613 yards, and six touchdowns, good for 14.5 fantasy PPG allowed. They’ve also struggled heavily over the last four weeks, giving up 19.55 PPG, 332 yards, and three touchdowns to the position. This matchup creates one of the clearest paths to production Barner has seen all year.
From a fantasy perspective, Barner enters Week 13 as a strong streaming option and a start in deeper formats. Minnesota’s recent defensive regression against tight ends aligns perfectly with Barner’s increased workload, making him one of the most intriguing plays of the week. If his target volume remains steady, he offers both a reliable floor and a pathway to a spike week. Managers should also note his elite playoff schedule, with matchups against the Colts, Rams, and Panthers, each ranking among the most vulnerable defenses to tight ends in the second half. For anyone streaming the position weekly, this is a rare chance to get ahead of the curve and lock in a high-upside option.
Dalton Schultz HOU
Dalton Schultz’s Week 12 dud against Buffalo was expected, given that the Bills rank No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Prior to that, he had scored at least 11.1 PPR points in three straight games and in five of his last six. Since Week 3, Schultz has posted an 18.2% target share, 48.9 receiving yards per game, 1.60 YPRR, and a 20.4% first-read share. Over that nine-game span, he’s seen six red-zone targets and five deep targets while averaging 10.7 PPR points. The Texans rely on his intermediate presence to stabilize the passing attack, and his usage has remained extremely consistent when the matchup is favorable. This week, everything tilts in his favor.
The Colts are one of the best matchups in all of fantasy for tight ends, allowing the second-most receiving yards, fifth-most fantasy points, and six double-digit TE games this season. Five different tight ends have cleared at least 10 PPR points against Indianapolis, and the defense continues to struggle in the middle of the field. Schultz’s usage, red-zone involvement, and matchup all point toward a strong rebound performance. With Houston leaning heavily on him when games remain competitive, he should be treated as a locked-in start and a top-10 option in Week 13. Fantasy managers should confidently put him back in lineups.
Tight Ends to Sit
Zach Ertz WAS
Zach Ertz has not topped 10 fantasy points in any of his five games with Marcus Mariota, averaging just 7.2 PPG in that span. His target share has dipped by 3% with Mariota under center, and despite ranking third in air yards, third in ADOT, and sixth in target share among tight ends for the season, he has failed to convert that usage into production. He has topped 50 yards just twice all year and hasn’t found the end zone in the second half of the season. Over his last three games, Ertz has only 12 catches for 142 scoreless yards on 17 targets. While Denver can be vulnerable after the catch, Ertz ranks just 40th among tight ends in YAC, limiting his ability to exploit that weakness.
The Broncos have held tight ends in check all season, allowing just four touchdowns to the position and only one player to surpass 100 receiving yards. No player has scored more than one touchdown against Denver this year, making this an awful matchup for a touchdown-dependent tight end. Given Ertz’s cold streak, diminishing usage, and lack of efficiency, there’s no reason to force him into lineups. Better streaming options exist across every platform this week. Ertz remains a clear sit in Week 13.
Hunter Henry NE
Hunter Henry erupted for 24.5 fantasy points last week with a 7/115/1 performance against Cincinnati — but that was a pure matchup-driven outlier. Before that, Henry was held under 9.1 PPR points for seven straight games and managed just 21 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns from Weeks 4–11. His target volume, while stable, rarely translated into meaningful production due to New England’s inconsistency in who they target in the passing game. The Giants have been one of the strongest defenses against tight ends this season, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per target and eighth-fewest yards per game to the position. Only four tight ends have scored double digits against New York all year. Even last week’s performance isn’t enough to erase months of volatility.
The matchup pushes Henry back into sit territory, as the Giants have allowed only two tight ends to exceed 11.6 PPR points all season. While he remains a viable desperation option in very deep leagues, he should not be started in standard formats. His Week 12 explosion was matchup-inflated, and this week brings a major downgrade. Fantasy managers should avoid chasing points and keep Henry on the bench.
Kyle Pitts ATL
Kyle Pitts continues to struggle through one of the most frustrating stretches of his career, battling inefficiency, low target volume, and a lack of red-zone usage after a strong start to the season. Despite Atlanta’s thin receiving corps, Pitts has not been able to translate opportunities into meaningful production, recording consecutive games with minimal yardage. He has now scored under 8 points in four straight games and has not seen a red zone target since Week 9. His involvement has not increased even when Drake London has missed time, highlighting concerns about his place in the offensive hierarchy. Drops and missed opportunities have also plagued him, directly contributing to stalled drives and turnovers. Pitts has not found the end zone since early in the season, making each week feel increasingly volatile.
For fantasy football purposes, Pitts is a clear sit this week due to his declining usage and an unforgiving matchup with the Jets. New York has allowed very little production to tight ends, only allowing 1 touchdown since Week 7. Given Pitts’ recent performances and Atlanta’s unwillingness to consistently feature him, there is no stable path to a strong fantasy outing. The matchup amplifies all the concerns already attached to his profile. Fantasy managers should steer away from placing him in starting lineups, as the risks far outweigh any potential reward.
