Jack Leiter was once seen as the next ace of baseball. During his two seasons at Vanderbilt, he was dominant, having a 2.36 ERA over 125 2/3 innings with 201 strikeouts to 53 walks and a 0.844 WHIP. When the Texas Rangers drafted him with the second overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, they thought they landed the face of their franchise. While his time in the majors has been a mixed bag so far, he has shown flashes of what he was able to do at Vanderbilt.
But things hit a new snag this season. On Tuesday, the Rangers announced that Leiter had undergone arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle to remove loose bodies. While there is no timetable, he is expected to be back at some point this season. Based on other players and the typical recovery time for this type of surgery, mid-August appears to be the earliest he can return. But will Leiter be able to make a comeback and become the pitcher everyone thought he could be
Can Jack Leiter Return to Form When He Returns?
When you first look at his numbers, you think that Leiter has struggled all season. Over 80 innings this season, he has a 5.29 ERA with 83 strikeouts to 35 walks, a 1.438 WHIP, and a 72 ERA+. It looks like he was having a sophomore slump and regressed from his first full season. But these numbers were inflated by Leiter pitching through the ankle injury. In his last three starts, he had an ERA of 9.98 in 13 2/3 innings with nine strikeouts to seven walks. The home run ball became a major problem as he allowed five in this stretch.
It appears the injury affected Leiter’s delivery. Although we do not know exactly what went wrong, it is likely that he was not getting the push-off he had at the beginning of the season. With his ankle in pain, any movement made it worse. So when he would do his wind-up and go to the plate, he was not generating the power he once did. This caused his pitches to lack the speed and velocity they once had, making it much easier for a hitter to make contact.
Now that Leiter no longer has the loose bodies in his ankle, his delivery should return to what it once was. He will not be pitching in pain, thus allowing him to return to the delivery he had at the start of the season. This should allow him to return to how he pitched at the beginning of the season. Having him end the season on a strong note will be huge for his development. It will give him confidence and show him that he can make it in the majors. It would also set him up to have a breakout in 2027.
The best thing the Rangers can do for Leiter is not to put expectations on him. With them being two and a half games back of first and a game out of the wild card spot, there might be a feeling that Leiter’s return could give them a final push. But this is not the best way to look at it. With Leiter’s timeline so uncertain, they need to operate as if he will not return this season. They should see anything they get from him during the second half as a big win.
While it sucks that Leiter is going to miss time, it at least explains why he has struggled recently. He should be able to return the form and give Rangers fans hope that he can become that ace in the near future.
