Once again, these two powerhouse teams face off in what many expect to be a game-of-the-year type of matchup. The 5-2 Bills see themselves in unfamiliar territory as they are trailing the New England Patriots in the AFC East. That’s not the only abnormality, as the Chiefs are third in the AFC West despite being 5-3. Both teams desperately need a win this week, not only for their quests to repeat as division winners, but also if they hope to obtain the #1 seed in the AFC.
Stats to Know
Looking at the offenses, the Buffalo Bills are 3rd in the league in total yards per game (382.9), and are 4th in points per game (29.6), while the Kansas City Chiefs are 5th in yards per game (378.3), and are 7th in points per game (26.8)—a 5-yard and about a 3 point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, how do their defenses stack up in this Monday night matchup? Buffalo’s defense ranks 12th in yards allowed per game (312.1). The Bills rank 9th with 20.9 points allowed per game. Kansas City. On the other hand, they are impressively 4th in the league through 8 weeks in yards allowed (277.8) and 2nd in points allowed per game (16.4). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 34 yards more and allows about 4 to 5 more points per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 330 total yards and about 23 points, while the Chiefs’ offense should have around 345 yards and about 24 points on Sunday. This gives the Chiefs a 1-point advantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -1.5, favoring Kansas City. The Chiefs are 5-3 covering the spread, while the Bills are 3-4 covering. Betting the Chiefs at -1.5 is risky, as both teams should be extremely close in yards and points, plus Buffalo has won the last 4 regular-season games versus the Chiefs.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into the first matchup between these divisional rivals.
- James Cook is coming off a historic 216-yard game last week against the Carolina Panthers, and over the last two games, he has a total of 303 rushing yards, averaging 8.42 YPC over those games. Cook also had 2 rushing TDs last week as he looks to continue this impressive season.
- Cole Bishop has been underwhelming in coverage and has had a glaring problem tackling this season, but Bishop will need to step up as safety Taylor Rapp was placed on injured reserve this week.
- Rashee Rice has been remarkable since coming back from suspension and has been the spark the Kansas City Chiefs desperately needed. Rice has 16 receptions for 135 yards and 3 TDs in just two games, and I expect him to dominate against a rough-looking Bills secondary.
- Brashard Smith had low expectations coming into this season as a 7th-round pick, but earned a spot on the 53-man roster after a respectable camp and preseason. Smith, over the past couple of games, has been lackluster at best, with 17 carries for 47 yards. Smith is averaging less than 3 YPC, and with Isiah Pacheco out, the Chiefs are relying on Kareem Hunt and Brashard Smith to step up this week.
Game Predictions
I expect the Bills to win 28-27, along with James Cook having another solid performance. Rashee Rice has over 100 yards and a TD, while Chris Jones and George Karlaftis get a sack for the Chiefs’ defense.
Trade Deadline News
As the trade deadline approaches, many Bills fans are curious to see what General Manager Brandon Beane has up his sleeve. Rashid Shaheed of the Saints? Jakobi Meyers of the Raiders? A.J. Brown of the Eagles– no, A.J. Brown isn’t being traded. I don’t expect the Bills to make a splash as it stands. Buffalo sits dead last in available cap space with $1.76M. Unless we trade for a player on a rookie contract, we just don’t have the cap to make a move this season.
A Look Ahead
After the November 4th deadline, Buffalo faces the Miami Dolphins for the second time this season. The Bills were victorious in their first matchup in week 3, 31-21 at home.
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