A potential Super Bowl preview takes center stage this week as the Buffalo Bills host the Philadelphia Eagles—though the stakes go far beyond interconference bragging rights. Rather than competing for the Lombardi Trophy, Buffalo is fighting to stay alive in a tightly contested AFC East race with the New England Patriots.
Entering the matchup, the Bills sit just one game behind the Patriots in the division standings. With the regular season winding down, Buffalo’s margin for error has vanished. The Bills must win out over their remaining games to keep pressure on New England, while also needing help elsewhere. Specifically, Buffalo will be rooting for the Patriots to stumble against either the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins—two divisional opponents capable of handing New England a costly AFC East loss.
Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills are 3rd in the league in total yards per game (373.1) and are 3rd in points per game (28.9). The Philadelphia Eagles are 22nd in yards per game (319.6). The Eagles are also 16th in points per game (23.3)—a massive 53-yard difference and about a 6-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 11th in yards allowed per game (311.4). The Bills rank 15th with 22.9 points allowed per game. Philadelphia, on the other hand, is right behind Buffalo, sitting at 12th in yards allowed (315.7) and is 4th in points allowed per game (19.3). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about just 4 yards less than the Eagles but allows about 4 more points per game.
Let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 344 total yards and about 24 points, while the Eagles’ offense should have around 316 yards and about 23 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a slim 1-point advantage and a 28-yard advantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -1.5, favoring Buffalo. The Eagles are 8-6 covering the spread, while the Bills are 7-8 covering. Betting the Bills at -1.5 is tough, as this will be one of the toughest matchups they’ve had all year.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this matchup.
- James Cook could become the first Bill to lead the league in rushing since O.J. Simpson did it back in 1970. Over the past two weeks, Cook has 235 total yards with 5 total touchdowns.
- Khalil Shakir is having a mediocre season; he’s had some good performances, but we signed him to a four-year contract extension this past offseason for $60.2M. The problem is that he’s not performing like a WR1; in fact, Shakir has as many 100-yard games as Keon Coleman this season.
- Saquon Barkley isn’t following up his 2024 campaign with another all-time season, but he has remained dominant, especially through the winter months, as Barkley has 346 total yards and 3 touchdowns in the last three weeks.
- Jahan Dotson has struggled this season, although it was going to be tough carving out a role in a loaded offense. Dotson only had 3 receptions for 13 yards over the past two games despite playing over 50% of the snaps.
Game Predictions
Philadelphia will exploit Buffalo’s run defense. I predict Saquon Barkley will have a historic game, 200+ total yards. Josh Allen will be relied on to carry his team against the reigning Super Bowl Champions and throw for 300+ and rush for a touchdown. Despite Barkley’s performance, Buffalo wins 35-34.
A Look Ahead
Check out all of my previous articles alongside all regular season articles available here: 2025 Season Series, and make sure to use code DL10 for 10% off all memberships! Also, tune in on YouTube to view our most recent video, where we discuss the Christmas Day matchups.
