The New Orleans Saints shocked the football world at pick No. 40 in the NFL Draft. With both Shedeur Sanders and Jalen Milroe still on the board, the Saints instead turned to 25-year-old Tyler Shough, a quarterback whose journey has been anything but conventional.
Shough, a former top recruit from the same high school class as Trevor Lawrence, has battled through a series of injuries throughout his collegiate career. After a stint at Texas Tech, he transferred to Louisville and finally had the breakout season many had hoped for. His frame is prototypical tall, strong, and mobile, with a big-time arm to match. But his draft position raised eyebrows not because of his talent, but because of the risk.
Let’s be real, 25-year-old rookie quarterbacks typically don’t work out. Shough has a concerning injury history, and while the tools are there, the Saints are betting against the odds. That said, the decision to draft Shough over Sanders tells us two things: New Orleans has real concerns about Derek Carr’s long-term health, and they don’t believe that Sanders is the solution to their problems. Despite Shough’s concerns, he can still sling it. Let’s break down what the Saints are getting.
College Production
Career Stats
Years in College: 6
Passing Yards: 7820
Passing Touchdowns: 59
Interceptions: 23
Completion %: 63%
YPA: 8.2
Rushing Yards: 733
Rushing Touchdowns: 11
2024 PFF Grade: 87.4
Strengths
Tyler Shough brings a blend of arm talent, athleticism, and football IQ that makes him a fascinating NFL prospect. At the core of his game is elite arm strength—Shough is a natural velocity generator who can drive the ball to all three levels without straining. He’s especially dangerous on deep crossers and seam shots, where the ball explodes out of his hand with impressive zip and placement.
His compact, efficient release allows him to get the ball out quickly, even under pressure, and he consistently alters arm slots without sacrificing accuracy. On off-platform throws, especially rolling to his left, Shough shows rare control and feel. One of his most memorable plays—a front-flip touchdown against Clemson—highlights both his athleticism and competitive fire, traits that translate well to today’s NFL.
Mentally, Shough is more advanced than your average rookie. He’s operated in three different offensive systems and showed noticeable improvement under center at Louisville. His ability to read defenses pre-snap, understand leverage, and work through full-field progressions helped him produce a career-best 23:6 TD-to-INT ratio in 2024. According to PFF, he posted an elite 85.8 grade on non-play-action passes—fifth best in the FBS—which speaks to his ability to handle NFL-level processing responsibilities.
Weaknesses
While Tyler Shough brings an intriguing skill set to the Saints, several red flags make his selection at pick 40 a gamble. Among them is his inability to consistently handle pressure. Despite boasting one of the best pressure-to-sack rates in the country (9.3%), Shough’s tape reveals a different story; he often gets jittery in collapsing pockets, bails prematurely, and allows his mechanics to break down. He has a troubling habit of throwing off his back foot or fading away from throws, leading to dangerous misfires and missed opportunities, especially with open receivers on the field.
There are also concerns about his post-snap processing. While he reads defenses well pre-snap, he tends to lock onto his primary read and can be slow to work through his progressions. When pressured, his completion percentage drops significantly, which speaks to lingering issues with decision-making under duress.
Shough’s age and injury history compound these concerns. At 25, he’s one of the oldest rookies in the class, older than Trevor Lawrence, and nearly three years older than other developmental prospects like Jalen Milroe and Shedeur Sanders. His extended college career has included multiple collarbone injuries and a broken fibula, limiting him to just 42 games over seven seasons. That kind of mileage and durability history doesn’t inspire long-term confidence, especially for a quarterback whose physical tools are already close to maxed out
Final Thoughts
Look, this pick isn’t about a safe floor—it’s about upside. Shedeur Sanders might have the higher ceiling, and he’s younger with a more polished game. But he also brings a media circus. The Saints clearly didn’t want to deal with that.
Instead, they chose Tyler Shough—a high-risk, high-reward quarterback with real arm talent, mobility, and enough film to justify intrigue. He’s not without flaws. He’s old for a rookie, injury-prone, and at times makes questionable reads. But he’s also the kind of guy who can run Kellen Moore’s offense, and if everything breaks right, surprise people.
If Derek Carr can’t go, Shough likely starts. And whether this ends in a tank for Arch Manning or a playoff push with an unlikely hero, Saints fans will get their answer soon enough.
