The NFL off-season is basically over, and the Buffalo Bills sit in their perennial spot atop Super Bowl winner odds, currently tied for 2nd behind the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills have found countless ways to fall short of those championship dreams over the past 7 years, and the “Josh Allen era” is starting to feel like a smaller window.
The team moved on from head coach Sean McDermott immediately after their playoff loss to the Denver Broncos, in a surprising but much-needed move.
They promoted offensive coordinator Joe Brady to head coach, a move that Allen definitively approved. Team owner Terry Pegula has a city full of gullible fans who believe he fired McDermott without consulting anyone. If you are one of those fans, I have some magic beans I’d like to sell you.
There is zero, and I mean zero, chance that Allen didn’t sign off on the McDermott firing. Too often, McDermott’s conservative nature in big games has cost the Bills, and Allen must feel his career is dwindling away.
With Brady’s hire also came the hiring of Jim Leonhard as defensive coordinator. Leonhard was the assistant head coach last year in Denver, the team that ultimately ended the Bills’ season. There are a few major concerns the Bills will be facing if they want this to be the year, and our list begins with this defensive transformation.
1) New Defense, Who Dis?
For his entire tenure as Buffalo Bills head coach, McDermott consistently had one of the better “statistical” defenses in the league. So much of that was misleading. The defense was always built to bend, not break. They were one of the better teams in the league throughout his tenure, so they faced many favorable game scripts.
Teams were often forced to air it out and abandon the run early while trying to keep up with Allen and the Bills’ explosive offense.
Let’s give McDermott his credit where due. He took a lot of average players and made them look great. Jordan Poyer was cast off by the Cleveland Browns. The Green Bay Packers didn’t re-sign Micah Hyde, and he went on to become one of the better safeties in the league under McDermott’s zone system. But the Bills’ defense looked bad in so many big playoff games, and that will need to change under Leonhard for the Bills to find the promised land.
The biggest difference for the Buffalo Bills should be a more aggressive pass rush, something that was severely lacking in the former system. Only once during his 9 seasons with the team did McDermott have a player with 10 or more sacks (Leonard Floyd, 10.5, 2023). How quickly Leonhard’s defense will be fully implemented remains to be seen.
Sure, the Bills brought in free agents Bradley Chubb, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Dee Alford. They spent their first two draft picks on the defensive side of the ball with EDGE TJ Parker and CB Davison Igbinosun. But many of the main pieces from the McDermott remain, and it is unclear how they will adapt to a new system that will change most of their positions and responsibilities.
2. New Daddy Josh Allen Gets More Toys to Play With
There is a notion that GM Brandon Beane has not treated the WR position with enough importance, and that argument could definitely be made. But if he doesn’t get production from the WR room this year, it isn’t from a lack of trying.
The Bills enter the 2026 season with the 2nd most money spent at the position. And let me tell you, this room is nowhere near the second-best in the NFL. A big chunk of that money belongs to newly acquired D.J. Moore, whom the Bills traded for in the off-season, acquiring the former 2nd Team All-Pro from the Chicago Bears.
Khalil Shakir has been one of Allen’s most reliable targets in his career, but Shakir is nowhere near an elite talent. Third-year wide receiver Keon Coleman has been a huge talking point this offseason. Benched multiple times for disciplinary issues last year, Coleman was almost certainly not going to be in the team’s 2026 plans.
But Buffalo Bills owner Terry Pegula may have severely hurt any possible trade value left when he stated in his press conference announcing the McDermott firing,
“The coaching staff pushed to draft Keon,” Pegula said. “I’m not saying Brandon wouldn’t have drafted him, but he wasn’t his next choice. That was Brandon being a team player and taking the advice of his coaching staff, who felt strongly about the player. “He’s taking, for some reason, heat over it and not saying a word about it, but I’m here to tell you the true story.”
Those statements were quickly walked back by Beane and Brady, and both have continued to stress how motivated Coleman is to improve this year. There is an arrogance both Beane and Brady carry that makes me wonder whether they will give Coleman every opportunity to prove them right. Tight End Dalton Kincaid is going through his second offseason in a row where he is declining surgery on a knee injury that has plagued him for the past season and a half.
Kincaid, never fully healthy in 2025, still finished first out of all tight ends in yards per route run, with an astounding 2.77 YPRR, completely separating himself from Tucker Kraft, who was second on that list with a 2.27 YPRR. If Kincaid can get back to complete health, this may be the best group of weapons Josh Allen has had yet in his career.
3. Holiday Touchdown Part Deux: A Horrid NFL Schedule
I am not usually a guy who looks at the strength of schedule in June. Every year, there are teams we are sure would be bad that turn out to be good, and vice versa. But boy, do the first five weeks look daunting for the Buffalo Bills this year. They open on the road in Houston to play the Texans, a place where Josh Allen has played more like Brandon Allen.
They come back home on short rest to open their new stadium against the Detroit Lions. They continue a 3-game home stand with games vs. the Los Angeles Chargers and last year’s AFC Champion, the New England Patriots. Then in Week 5, they go to Los Angeles to play the Super Bowl favorite Rams. Not the start you’d hope for when learning a new defensive scheme.
Joe Brady was a controversial hire to many Buffalo Bills fans, and he can be hearing it from the Mafia pretty early if things get off to a slow start. The NFL did no favors for new dad Josh Allen as the Bills play on Thanksgiving night vs their rival, the Kansas City Chiefs, and Patrick Mahomes.
He won’t be home for Christmas either, as the Bills go to Denver to play the Broncos on Christmas Day for a rematch of last year’s Divisional round game. The Bills will be in many high-profile, primetime games, and new head coach Joe Brady will be under pressure to show the Bills Mafia and his own players that he can handle the stage better than his predecessor.
As the 2026 season approaches, the Buffalo Bills face pivotal uncertainties. Adapting to a new defensive scheme, navigating a grueling schedule, and whether they did an adequate job of providing Josh Allen with reliable offensive weapons will define their success.
While these challenges are significant, they also offer the team an opportunity to evolve and demonstrate their resilience. If the new coaching staff and roster can synchronize effectively, Buffalo remains a formidable contender ready to overcome any obstacle on their path, and possibly 2026 will be the year that the Lombardi finally comes to Buffalo.
