Sleepers and Duds can be one of the most frustrating types of story to write. Statistics can tell a story how games should play out, but we have to remember the human factor usually has the biggest say how that story eventually develops.
But after my Week 2 story, I had my doubts of following those statistical stories, but in the end, the outcomes were better than most expected.
I had some great picks, some good picks and some just OK picks last week. But like something I always say, numbers never lie – now they may not tell the whole story.
Now let’s get into this week’s Sleepers and Duds!
QB Sleepers
Caleb Williams, Chicago
Williams is a borderline starter in most leagues, but I think he should be a starter in all leagues this week.
The Bears play host to Dallas, who just made Russell Wilson look like an All-Pro again.
The Cowboys are the third worse team in the league giving up fantasy points to quarterback. They have given up 27.6 points through two games, according to our Blitz Sports Media points allowed by QBs.
Williams had a QB1 finish in Week 1 before Detroit rolled the Bears in Week 2. But it’s Williams’ legs that have me impressed this season. He’s run for 85 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries/scrambles.
QB Duds
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
Hurts is usually matchup proof to leave him on the bench but if he’s not scoring TDs by the tush push, his upside has been limited this season. The Eagles passing game has been sub-par so far, averaging 126.5 passing yards a game.
Now granted Philadelphia hasn’t needed Hurts to have a big game, but that may not start this week. The LA Rams bring the 4th best defense in the NFL to Lincoln Financial Field. Plus, the Rams are also the 4th best pass defense in the league, giving up only 147 yards a game.
Hurts may have to lean on his running game to put in him tush push scoring situations.
RB Sleepers
Jordan Mason, Minnesota
I know I’m kind of cheating with this one since Aaron Jones Sr. was just placed on IR with a hamstring injury. This opens the door for Mason to dominate touches in the Vikings backfield.
Jones Sr. held a 55-45 percent snap count edge over Mason, but now Mason should see 75-plus percent of the snaps in an offense looking for some identity.
J.J. McCarthy is going to miss this week because of an ankle injury and Carson Wentz will get the start under center. The team may focus early on the running game and Mason.
Mason has produced in his limited time. He has touches in 56 percent of his 48 snaps for 98 rushing yards and 3 catches for 15 yards.
RB Duds
Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
Jacobs has had a sluggish start to the season propped up by 2 rushing TDs, and now the Packers head to Cleveland to face its top ranked defense.
Despite their 0-2 start, the Browns have been stingy in run defense, limiting Cincinnati and Baltimore to 45.5 yards a game average. Cleveland held Derrick Henry to only 23 rushing yards last week.
Jacobs is averaging 83 yards rushing, but he has been limited in the passing with only 1 target through the two games. An upside game may be hard to come by this week for Jacobs!
WR Sleepers
Dyami Brown, Jacksonville
Brown may be classified as the Jaguars’ No. 3 WR but a deeper look at his stats says something different.
Rookie Travis Hunter has the hype and more targets but it is Brown who is on the field and producing. Brown has seen 71 and 80 percent of the snaps in the two games, while Hunter has played 64 percent and 59 percent of the snaps.
Plus, Brown is seeing 9.90 yards per target compared to less than 5 yards per target for Hunter.
Even though I think the Jaguars matchup against Houston could be low scoring, Brown still has potential to be solid flex play. The Texans give up 31.8 points to WRs in half PPR in our points allowed rankings.
WR Duds
Chris Olave, New Orleans
Olave and the Saints take to the road for the first time this season and run into a buzz saw vs. opponent’s WRs.
Seattle comes into the game as the league’s best 14.4 points allowed to WRs, according to our points allowed to WRs.
Olave is seeing plenty of targets but has only caught 13 of 23 targets. He’s also only averaging 4.7 yards a target this season. Times could be even tougher this week!
TE Sleepers
A.J. Barner, Seattle
Barner may not be a biggest stat filler of the boxscore, but the opportunities are there to improve.
Barner has played 87 percent of the snaps for the Seahawks, while rookie TE Elijah Arroyo hasn’t eclipsed 40 percent of the snap in the two games.
Plus, Barner is also third in target share at 9.6 percent, and the Saints come into the game giving up the 7th most fantasy points to TEs at 12.5 points.
TE Duds
Evan Engram, Denver
Engram came into the season as a low-end TE1 or high-end TE2 in most rankings, but he hasn’t come close those lofty goals.
He has recorded only 4 catches for 33 yards and appears to be in a timeshare with Adam Trautman, who has outsnapped him in both games.
The Broncos travel to face AFC West Division foe LA Chargers, who are a middle of road defense vs. TEs, but with Engram in a timeshare and dealing with back injury, another week of low hopes follow him.
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