The San Diego Padres have been the worst offensive team this season. As a group, they are slashing .218/.289/.355 with 65 home runs, 267 RBIs, and a BABIP of .256. Besides home runs, all of these stats rank dead last in the MLB. Which is surprising, considering the amount of offensive talent on the team. Offense used to be this team’s strength, so seeing this type of production is a bit perplexing. One of the biggest explanations for these struggles has been the performance of Manny Machado.
For years, Machado has been one of the Padres’ main offensive producers, but that has not been the case this season. Over 62 games this season, he has slashed .169/.254/.342 with 11 home runs, 32 RBIs, and an OPS+ of 67. A far cry from the hitter he has been the past season. Given how much his numbers have dropped and his age, many wonder whether this is the start of Machado’s decline. But is this the case, and what has been the main reason that his numbers have suffered?
Is This the Beginning of the End for Manny Machado?
Although it’s been more noticeable this season, Machado’s struggles started in August of last season. Over the final 50 games of last season, he slashed .215/.275/.354 with seven home runs and 24 RBIs. He also struck out 52 times during that stretch, nearly 40% of his total strikeouts that season. This carried over into the postseason, as he notched only one hit in 10 at-bats. Once you combine these numbers with what he’s done this year, we are looking at over a 110-game sample size of him struggling.
Machado’s Baseball Savant page does not give much reason to believe he can turn it around. Out of the 13 offensive stats on the site, he has two of them in the red. Those being bat speed and walk percentage. Despite it being in the red, his bat speed has dropped this season. Sure, it is only by a tenth of a mph, but in terms of percentile, it went from 84 to 76. There are other factors outside of Machado’s control that caused the percentile to drop, but any drop in bat speed is cause for concern.
The biggest concern for Machado has been the drop in his hard-hit percentage. He currently has a hard-hit percentage of 42.9%, which ranks at the 58th percentile. This is an 8.6% drop from last season. This means that the majority of the contact he is making is weak. Another reason for this weak contact is his 8.2 barrel% and an average exit velocity of 89.9 mph. Both of which are noticeable drops from last season. With these types of batted ball numbers, it’s no wonder that his numbers have taken a nosedive.
None of these stats inspires much confidence that he can turn things around this season. It would be one thing if he were making solid contact with the ball and was just getting unlucky. But his stats, coupled with the quality of his contact, are signs that a player is declining. With him in his mid-30s, it’s unlikely that he will be able to return to the quality of contact we are used to. Because of that, he will no longer be a hitter that the Padres can rely on to carry their lineup.
While Machado will likely get a hot streak and finish with decent numbers, he is not going to be the MVP candidate we are used to seeing. He will likely need to take on more of a supporting role for the duration of his contract.
