The Love For The Game 2026 conference prediction series continues with one of the most chaotic leagues in college football: the Big 12. After breaking down the Big Ten and ACC, this episode turns to a conference that feels wide open on the surface, but one team still separates itself in the LFTG Performance Index. Texas Tech enters as the most complete team on paper, Kansas State has a new coaching spark, BYU and Utah feel built to win immediately, and multiple middle-tier teams could swing the entire race.
Table of Contents
The Championship Tier
1. Texas Tech Red Raiders — 11-1, 8-1 Big 12
Texas Tech is the clear favorite in this projection, and it starts with the totality of the program. This is not just about one position group or one splashy transfer class. The Red Raiders check more boxes than anyone else in the conference: roster quality, coaching staff, defensive talent, returning snaps, portal talent, and schedule draw.
Joey McGuire has built Texas Tech into the most complete team in the Big 12. The model has the Red Raiders ranked seventh nationally entering the season, and they also benefit from the easiest conference schedule in the league. That does not guarantee perfection, but it does create a path where 11-1 and 8-1 in league play feels very realistic.
The biggest question is quarterback Will Hammond. He does not need to be a superstar, but he does need to be steady enough to allow the rest of the roster to take over. The encouraging part is that Hammond has already shown flashes, especially in a tough road environment at Utah. If he simply manages the offense, avoids back-breaking mistakes, and gives Texas Tech enough playmaking in the passing game, the Red Raiders have the defense and roster depth to win the league again.
2. Kansas State Wildcats — 11-1, 8-1 Big 12
Kansas State is the swing team that could make this entire conference race fascinating. Collin Klein returning to Manhattan as head coach gives the Wildcats one of the best coach-quarterback fits in the Big 12, especially with Avery Johnson still in the building.
Johnson has always had elite tools. The question has been consistency. If Klein could help elevate Marcel Reed at Texas A&M, the belief here is that he can unlock another level in Johnson. That dual-threat ability makes Kansas State dangerous every single week, especially in a league where quarterback play is often the separator.
The concern is the defensive front seven. If Kansas State gets enough answers there, this team can absolutely win the Big 12. The roster has enough talent, the quarterback has enough upside, and the coaching fit is strong enough to make the Wildcats a legitimate College Football Playoff contender.
3. BYU Cougars — 10-2, 8-1 Big 12
BYU is projected to finish with the same conference record as Texas Tech and Kansas State, but tiebreakers keep the Cougars out of the Big 12 title game. That speaks to how strong the top of the league is, because BYU still looks like one of the most complete teams in the conference.
The Cougars retained Bear Bachmeier at quarterback, which is massive. They also bring back LJ Martin, one of the best running backs in the Big 12. That gives BYU a physical offensive foundation: stable quarterback play, a reliable run game, and enough identity to win close games.
The biggest loss is defensive coordinator Jay Hill leaving for Michigan. That is not a small thing. BYU’s defense still has enough returning production to be good, but losing a coordinator of that caliber keeps the Cougars just behind Texas Tech and Kansas State in this projection.
4. Utah Utes — 10-2, 7-2 Big 12
Utah enters a new era with Morgan Scalley taking over after Kyle Whittingham’s departure, but this still feels like Utah. The identity should remain physical, disciplined, and difficult to play against.
The biggest offseason win was retaining quarterback Devon Dampier. There was an expectation that he could follow his offensive coordinator Jason Beck, to Michigan, but he stayed with the Utes. That gives Utah stability at the most important position and keeps their ceiling high.
This may not be the flashiest roster in the Big 12, but Utah rarely needs to be flashy. They are built around physicality, development, and winning the margins. The Utes may not make the conference championship game in this projection, but they are very much in the Big 12 title race.
The Dangerous Sleeper Tier
5. Oklahoma State Cowboys — 9-3, 7-2 Big 12
Oklahoma State is one of the biggest risers in this projection because the Eric Morris era changes the entire feel of the program. After a disastrous 2025 season, the Cowboys reset the roster and staff in a major way.
The most important piece is quarterback Drew Mestemaker, who follows Morris from North Texas after putting up elite production. Oklahoma State also brings over offensive pieces from that North Texas system, giving the Cowboys a ready-made offensive identity instead of starting from scratch.
The question is defense. Can Oklahoma State stop enough Big 12 offenses to become a true championship contender? That is the difference between a strong first year under Morris and a potential trip to Arlington. The offense should travel, but the defense determines the ceiling.
6. Arizona Wildcats — 9-3, 6-3 Big 12
Arizona is another team that can make real noise because Noah Fifita returns at quarterback. In a conference filled with uncertainty at the position, Fifita gives the Wildcats a proven offensive centerpiece.
The offense should be productive. The issue is the defense. Arizona lost several key pieces, especially in the secondary and front seven. That turnover is enough to keep the Wildcats out of the top tier, even if the offense keeps them competitive every week.
If the defense comes together faster than expected, Arizona can absolutely beat this projection. But based on the questions on that side of the ball, 9-3 feels like the realistic ceiling range without pushing them into Arlington.
7. Houston Cougars — 9-3, 6-3 Big 12
Houston is one of the most interesting sleeper teams in the Big 12. Willie Fritz has the Cougars trending up, and the schedule gives them a real chance to stack wins.
Quarterback Conner Weigman returns, and Amare Thomas gives Houston one of the best receivers in the conference. Adding Trent Walker from Oregon State gives the passing game another weapon and makes this offense dangerous.
The question is whether the defense can match the offense. Houston should score points, but to push for a Big 12 title game appearance, the defense has to carry some of the load when the offense is not fully clicking.
8. TCU Horned Frogs — 9-3, 6-3 Big 12
TCU comes in eighth despite a 9-3 overall record, which shows how deep the top half of this conference is. The Horned Frogs have a favorable schedule and enough roster talent to be a real factor.
The big change is quarterback. Josh Hoover is gone, and Jaden Craig arrives from Harvard. Craig was productive at the FCS level, and the belief is that he can be a solid Big 12 starter. If he is steady, TCU has enough around him to win a lot of games.
Defensively, Andy Avalos gives TCU a strong foundation. The question is whether Sonny Dykes can maximize the roster enough to push the Horned Frogs beyond the second tier.
The Middle Tier
9. Arizona State Sun Devils — 6-6, 4-5 Big 12
Arizona State is one of the tougher teams to project. Kenny Dillingham has already shown he can overachieve, but this roster has real questions entering 2026.
The quarterback room gets a reset with Cutter Boley from Kentucky and Mikey Keene battling for the job. At wide receiver, Omarion Miller and Reed Harris give the Sun Devils some intriguing weapons. The offense has enough to be competitive.
The concern is defense. Arizona State lost a lot of production on that side of the ball, and that is the biggest reason they land in the middle of the pack rather than near the top.
10. Cincinnati Bearcats — 6-6, 3-6 Big 12
Cincinnati loses high-end quarterback production, and that changes the ceiling of the offense. Replacing that kind of player is difficult, even with a capable transfer like JC French coming in from Georgia Southern.
French does not need to be a star. He needs to be efficient, protect the football, and keep the offense on schedule. If he does that, Cincinnati can still get to a bowl game.
The defense could be better than people expect, especially with Nate Woody coming in as defensive coordinator. The front seven has enough to keep Cincinnati competitive, but the offense likely does not have enough explosiveness to push the Bearcats into the upper half of the conference.
11. UCF Knights — 5-7, 3-6 Big 12
Scott Frost has some intriguing pieces, but UCF still feels a step away from being a serious Big 12 factor.
Alonza Barnett arrives from James Madison after being a productive quarterback, and Duke Watson from Louisville adds explosiveness to the running back room. Those two players raise the ceiling of the offense.
The problem is the roster as a whole. UCF’s returning production numbers are decent, but the overall roster quality, recruiting class, portal class, and line-of-scrimmage concerns keep the Knights below bowl eligibility in this projection.
12. Kansas Jayhawks — 5-7, 3-6 Big 12
Kansas feels like a program losing steam. Lance Leipold deserves credit for what he built, but the question now is whether the Jayhawks have already hit their peak under him.
Quarterback is a major concern after the departure of Jalon Daniels, and that uncertainty lowers the floor of the offense. Dylan Edwards coming in from Kansas State gives Kansas some explosiveness at running back, but the offensive and defensive lines remain major questions.
Kansas should still be competitive. This does not project as a team getting blown out every week. But in a deeper Big 12, the Jayhawks do not have enough high-end answers to climb into the top half.
13. Baylor Bears — 5-7, 3-6 Big 12
Baylor is one of the clearest “prove it” teams in the conference. The projection is less about one specific position and more about a loss of faith in Dave Aranda’s ability to get this program back on track.
The Bears bring in DJ Lagway from Florida, and he could absolutely change the outlook if he hits. But the move also feels like a high-risk swing from a coach who needs answers quickly.
The roster has inconsistencies, the schedule is difficult, and the overall direction of the program feels shaky. Lagway could prove this projection wrong, but the safer call is another frustrating season in Waco, and potentially moving on from the lead man.
The Rebuild Tier
14. Iowa State Cyclones — 3-9, 1-8 Big 12
Iowa State enters a transition year under Jimmy Rogers. Matt Campbell’s move to Penn State takes a lot of the program’s identity and production with him, and the Cyclones rank near the bottom nationally in returning production.
Transfer quarterback Jalen Raynor from Arkansas State gives Iowa State a player who can raise the offensive ceiling. He may be good enough to steal a game or two that the model does not project.
But this feels like a year-one reset. Rogers needs time to build the roster, establish the staff, and create a new identity in Ames. The quarterback gives Iowa State hope, but the total team profile points toward a tough season.
15. West Virginia Mountaineers — 2-10, 1-8 Big 12
West Virginia has some intriguing offensive additions, but the overall climb is steep. Rich Rodriguez brings in Michael Hawkins Jr. from Oklahoma at quarterback and Cam Cook from Jacksonville State at running back, reuniting Cook with his former head coach.
The offense should be better. The problem is the defense. That side of the ball is the biggest concern entering the season and the main reason West Virginia lands near the bottom.
The schedule also does the Mountaineers no favors. With the hardest conference schedule in the Big 12 by the model’s metrics, even an improved offense may not be enough to create many wins.
16. Colorado Buffaloes — 2-10, 1-8 Big 12
Colorado lands last in this Big 12 projection. Deion Sanders enters year three, but there are still too many questions across the roster and the program.
Juju Lewis returning at quarterback gives Colorado continuity, and that matters. The Buffaloes also added DeAndre Moore from Texas and Danny Scudero at wide receiver, giving Lewis more weapons. The portal class adds some talent, but not enough to erase the biggest concerns.
The offensive line is the main issue. Losing Jordan Seaton to LSU is a massive blow, and the run game remains a major question. If Colorado cannot block consistently or run the ball, the offense becomes too dependent on quarterback play and explosive passing.
Defensively, Colorado may be solid up front, but the overall team profile still points toward a difficult season.
Big 12 Championship Prediction
The projected Big 12 Championship Game is Texas Tech vs. Kansas State.
Kansas State has the quarterback and coaching combination to make it dangerous. Avery Johnson’s dual-threat ability gives the Wildcats a real chance in a one-game setting. But Texas Tech is the more complete team. The Red Raiders have the deeper roster, better defensive profile, stronger overall model ranking, and best combination of coaching staff and roster talent in the league.
Pick: Texas Tech over Kansas State
Texas Tech is projected to win back-to-back Big 12 championships and enter the College Football Playoff as the league’s automatic qualifier. Kansas State, BYU, and Utah all remain firmly in the playoff conversation, but the Red Raiders are the team to beat.
