Sure, we all have that guy in our fantasy football league who is drafting Aaron Jones as if he is still the dominant back of yore. Or the boomer who still comes with a pen, paper, and a fantasy football magazine that has rankings from July. But a few guys will still be drafted too early, even by your “smart” friends.
They might even follow some real fantasy experts, like myself. No one will laugh at them when they walk up the board all confident and put their guy who they swear they are stealing up on the board. And like my latest self-help book would tell you, “Let Them”. Let’s dive into three guys you should let your friends reach on.
Jaylen Warren- Pittsburgh Steelers
Until Jaylen Warren is getting drafted behind Rico Dowdle in all fantasy football drafts, he is going too early. He should still have some standalone value, but he’s going to end up the red-headed stepchild in this backfield. Am I the biggest Dowdle truther on the planet? Probably. And it’s not even about the player, as much as it is that he is the exact type of running back Head Coach Mike McCarthy has shown to love when running an offense.
Dowdle was with McCarthy in Dallas, and the reunion comes as Pittsburgh’s offense has improved significantly in the offseason. Dowdle should eat up all the touchdowns. He’s also had 39 catches each of the past two years, the same amount as Warren, who most assume is the automatic pass catcher. Warren will have a role, but he is easily going two to three rounds too early.
The Second Tier Quarterbacks
The whole damn tier. I’m not saying that Jayden Daniels, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Drake Maye are going to have bad years. But my strategy in all fantasy football formats this year is to go with Josh Allen or fade the position. Allen is on a planet alone, as he’s finished QB1 three years in a row now. With his buddy Joe Brady as his new head coach and the addition of DJ Moore, it would take a Jaime Lannister hand amputation to keep him from continuing that streak. I think quarterbacks 2-10 can be disputed pretty easily.
That’s why I like to avoid this tier as much as possible. There are guys like Kyler Murray, Tyler Shough, and Jordan Love who all have top 10 upside. There are so many position players around that second tier of QBs that I want on my rosters. While Joe Burrow is one of my exceptions in that tier, it is really hard to take him without Chase or Higgins, as there are not many stacking options behind them. Waiting on quarterback is a strategy that will pay off this year. Unless, of course, you can get Joshua Patrick Allen.
TreVeyon Henderson- New England Patriots
Just like Jaylen Warren, Henderson isn’t even the best running back on his own team, yet he is drafted before his counterpart, Rhamondre Stevenson. Henderson is horrible at pass protection, and that is just not going to fly with Mike Vrabel. He is obviously a really high-upside handcuff if Stevenson were injured, as we have seen in bursts what he can do.
I’m not calling him a complete fade, but his ADP is unreasonable right now. Let your league mates draft him based on his short highlight reel from last year and wait the round or so to get the Patriots’ best running back. Vrabel has never been afraid of using a workhorse running back, and Stevenson showed that he can take that role.
