A.J. Brown PHI
A.J. Brown is one of the most dominant wide receivers in the NFL when he is healthy. He is a large, explosive receiver who has finally realized his potential over the last three seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, posting over 1,000 receiving yards each season with the team. Two of those three years saw him surpass 1,400 yards. The Eagles have provided Brown with a steady hand at quarterback and a complementary receiver, Devonta Smith. The pinnacle of his tenure came two months ago when the Philadelphia Eagles dominated the Kansas City Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Indeed, 2024 had to have been A.J. Brown’s year, right?
It’s not so simple. A.J. Brown had his worst and best seasons as an Eagle. Let me explain: While his metrics, such as Target Rate, Air Yards, targets per game, and Red Zone targets, were noticeably down, others—like Target Share and expected fantasy points per game—were way up.
There is an explanation for all of this: He missed weeks 2 through 5 after injuring his knee against the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 in Brazil. Additionally, the Eagles didn’t need to throw the ball much. Saquon Barkley rushed for over 2,000 yards and nearly broke the NFL rushing record for yards in a season. These seem like two very reasonable explanations for the fluctuations in his overall numbers.
However, I do have some concerns. Many other factors contributed to A.J. Brown’s 2024 story. For example, he was seen reading a book on the sidelines at times… and he didn’t receive targets from Jalen Hurts during certain periods of the season. He received six or fewer targets in nine games last season. This is not the kind of target volume A.J. Brown is accustomed to. Thinking ahead into the preseason, I do have some concerns after last year’s performance.
That being said, A.J. Brown remains one of my favorite players to draft in fantasy. His draft stock has dropped considerably from his usual late first-round pick. Currently, his Underdog ADP sits at 18, which makes him a great value as a mid-second-rounder. While A.J. Brown does have some concerns heading into 2025, if I had to make a choice, I’d still draft the high-rated, explosive wide receiver in the NFL (133.1). However, don’t be surprised if his performance takes a dip at some point during the year.
WORRYOMETER – 1/10
DK Metcalf PIT
DK Metcalf is one of the most explosive players to watch in the NFL. He is a freak athlete on and off the field. We all remember that photo of him and AJ Brown that came out on draft day, where he made Zeus and AJ Brown look like Grumpy… or is it Sleepy?… Not sure, but one of Snow White’s seven dwarves. DK has always been a fixture in the late second round in fantasy drafts during his time in Seattle. His durability, only missing three games in his career, is second to none. However, his recent cross-country venture from Seattle to Pittsburgh in a blockbuster trade this winter has raised massive concerns for me, but also made me think, what if?
The issue with DK Metcalf, for me, was always that his cost was too high for the floor that DK provided. He has a very low floor with weeks where he draws minimal targets and, consequently, puts up no yards. It’s simple math with DK. He is a boom-or-bust player. I tend to avoid those guys at the cost he provides (2nd or 3rd round)… BUT I got to thinking: was it a DK problem or a mediocre quarterback problem? He has had Russell Wilson (towards the end of his prime) and Geno Smith. He would have had Sam Darnold, who I would classify as mediocre, especially away from Kevin O’Connell. So, it was more of the same for DK in Seattle…
Is this move to Pittsburgh a good thing? Well, for now, it’s terrible, but it has a great chance to improve. It is rumored that Aaron Rodgers will go to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the words of someone on Twitter, “He is doing everything but signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers.” The Steelers’ quarterback situation has gotten worse since last year. Justin Fields signed with the New York Jets, and Russell Wilson also preferred New York and went to the Giants. If Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson are who DK is catching passes from, then I am out. But if it’s Aaron Rodgers, I am all in.
I believe that Aaron could pepper him with targets, similar to how he favored Davante Adams last season over the younger Garrett Wilson. George Pickens could be the Garrett Wilson to DK’s Davante Adams, but that remains to be seen. All of the reasons I have laid out make a ton of sense for the two to be paired together in September of 2025 for Opening Weekend, but it’s fishy. Rodgers could just retire, leaving this as a distant fantasy (literally).
DK’s metrics are still fine, and he is barely 27 years old. He has a ton left in the tank, but my worry for DK is that he will have nothing but two third-stringers throwing him the ball (calling them third-stringers is generous).
WORRYOMETER – 6/10
Chris Olave NO
Chris Olave was a stud his first two seasons out of Ohio State with the New Orleans Saints. He caught passes from not top-tier players and was still very successful. He was a 1,000-yard receiver in each of his first two seasons and combined for nine receiving touchdowns on a middle-of-the-pack Saints team. I often thought he was poised to be the next great receiver, the Cooper Kupp of his generation, if you will. Unfortunately, injuries plagued his promising start to the 2024 campaign.
The worst aspect about the injuries is that they were concussions. Concussions are one of the worst types of injuries for a good young player like him. It was also his third concussion, similar to Tua Tagovailoa. After the third concussion, the risk for severe damage is heightened significantly. We hope and pray that this isn’t going to be a long-term issue for Olave. Olave’s health is a major concern heading into the new season.
Another issue with Olave heading into 2025 is his quarterback situation, which is not great. Derek Carr’s best days are behind him. He has had a dip in production since landing in New Orleans as well. While the Saints looked like the Greatest Show on Turf for the first two weeks of the season, it was only a mirage, as they ended up on a seven-game losing streak right after. I do not see a functional team coming together in 2025.
Kellen Moore was hired to be the Saints’ head coach after the Eagles won the Super Bowl this past season. The first-year head coach and former Boise State quarterback revived the Eagles’ offense after a bleak ending to 2023. “Bleak” would be an understatement when speaking about the ending of the Saints’ 2024. I hope that he can revive that passing game and get Chris Olave in situations to succeed.
With all the reasons above, plus Olave’s average fantasy points per game dropping by over 5.0 points per game, things don’t look great. While I acknowledge he left two games early, it is still a big drop from year to year. Chris Olave can still be a really good player in the NFL, but we’ve seen players fall off due to injuries in the past. I fear that this will be the likely outcome for Olave. If he does stay healthy, the value in the situation around him remains to be seen. Olave is my most feared draft prospect in pre-season 2025. Even at his cost, an average draft position of 55 on Underdog (a middle-of-the-fifth-round guy), I’m cautious.