The Zero-Trust series continues! In this article, we will be diving into the running backs I have zero trust in for 2025. The rules of this series are laid out in my article, Zero-Trust Fantasy Quarterbacks 2025. Here is an abbreviated version.
These are not players that I necessarily think will be bad in 2025, but rather guys who lack consistency. That is a big thing when playing fantasy football. Some managers forgo consistency in favor of upside, but when you build your team around consistent players, it allows you to build the rest of your team for upside later in the draft. It is much easier to burn and churn upside talent and find the league winner on the waiver wire or late in your drafts.
I still may draft some of these guys, but only if I have a bunch of steady hands around him in my draft. There are a few guys I will just point blank not draft at all. That will be designated under each name.
Kyren Williams – LAR – ADP 25
Kyren Williams has been one of the best fantasy running backs over the past two seasons in Los Angeles for the Rams. He has been their lead back, taking on most of the workload, for the past few seasons. His calling card is just that, ‘usage’. He is not particularly fast or has a quick burst compared to the guys that are going within his ADP range of 25th overall. This is the first pick of the third round in your standard 12-team league. Kyren Williams has seen an 80% opportunity share over the past two seasons. He also has over 88% of the snap share within that LA offense. These are the top two in all of the NFL over the past two seasons. This sounds great, right?
I do not think that I can draft Kyren Williams that high. Let me tell you why. Williams was not drafted with high capital. He was selected in the 5th round out of Notre Dame in 2022. The Rams do not highly invest in him with either draft capital or money. The Rams have also taken running backs who are talented in the last two seasons, Blake Corum and Jarquez Hunter. Neither of them has extremely high draft capital either, but it seems as though the Rams’ lack of investment in Kyren Williams could be showing its head.
Kyren Williams absolutely could have another season like he did the past two years, but it is not something I would feel confident in considering who is behind him, the lack of investment, and his size. Injury has not been something that has plagued Williams too badly in his career. He did miss 4 games in the middle of the 2023 season, but none in 2024.
Williams has a lot of question marks heading into the 2025 season, and an early third-round pick is too much of an investment for me. I would rather have guys going after him like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, and James Cook. All have ADPs later than he does.
Will not draft at all.
Aaron Jones – MIN – ADP 64
Aaron Jones may be one of my favorite players in the NFL. Over the past 8 seasons, he has been a Hall of Fame person and a very good NFL running back. With all that being said, I do not trust Aaron Jones on my fantasy team in 2025. His ADP is 64. Which is not insanely high for a player with Jones’ week-to-week upside, but it does scare me to use a 5th/6th round pick on a guy that has a lot more question marks than I would like heading into the year.
The Minnesota Vikings have had some turnover in the offseason. They lost their quarterback in free agency and are now calling on the National Champion quarterback from the Michigan Wolverines, just a few years ago, J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy has garnered a ton of support from the NFL and fantasy football community on his talent and projected 2025 season, but I am just not buying it. I am not down on McCarthy as a prospect, but let’s be real… He did not throw the ball that much in college and then missed the entirety of his first season in the NFL. Vikings head coach Kevin O’Connell is an amazing offensive coach, and they have great pass catchers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson, but it is tough for me to put full faith and TRUST in a guy who I have never seen throw a pass in the NFL.
Remember, this article is about TRUST. There are spots in the draft you have to take shots, and Jones may be worth the SHOT if you have gotten pretty steady guys in the first four to five rounds of the draft and wanna take a shot on an older guy. That is fine…
I do not trust J.J. McCarthy to lead the Vikings’ offense in 2025. I can see it happening in the future, but this is about 2025. Aaron Jones may be the steady hand that guides McCarthy, and very well could be a good running back in 2025, but I am not trusting that it will happen.
The other elephant in the room with Jones is injuries. I am someone who thinks that Aaron Jones’ injury tag is a little overblown. Yes, he gets hurt for a chunk of time each season, but who doesn’t? This is the NFL. He played a full season for the third time in his career in 2024. Usually, what happens with Jones on your fantasy team is that he will get hurt at an inopportune time, and that’s the issue with his injuries. He will play most of the season.
Aaron Jones, I do not trust (more his situation than him) going into 2025. I would rather have other running backs like Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, and Tony Pollard in the draft range that he is in.
I will have a couple of shares of Aaron Jones if I have a steady team around Jones.
Christian McCaffrey – SF – ADP 11
I will just flat out tell you right now, I am not drafting Christian McCaffrey at all in 2025. His tantalizing 40-point fantasy outbursts will not have me charmed when it is decision time. Christian McCaffrey is one of the best running back talents and players we have seen since he entered the NFL in 2017. He also has had some of the most insane production seasons since he entered the league, only matched by a ridiculous run by Jonathan Taylor’s 2021 season. Three out of eight seasons in the NFL have been a wash, playing less than five games in those respective seasons. Those seasons he missed, he was a consensus top-five pick and in a lot of places #1 overall. For my fantasy baseball people, he has now entered Jacob DeGrom territory. Let someone else make the mistake and live with the weeks he is healthy and producing.
McCaffrey is no doubt an awesome player in a no doubt awesome offense in San Francisco, but there were rumors of retirement in the offseason. There may not be a ton of validity to that claim, but the fact that a 29-year-old running back coming off a lost season, where he openly admitted it was due to the insane workload the season prior, is quite terrifying to draft him as my RB1. Now, McCaffrey is going at a discounted rate this year. Compared to other years, his ADP of 11 is a steal. In some places, you will see him go in the second round of drafts, which again is discounted from previous years, but I still have no trust in using my early picks on him this year.
If I am wrong on McCaffrey this season, that is fine, but he poses a great risk as the first player off the board and onto your fantasy team. I would rather have players like Derrick Henry, Brian Thomas Jr., Drake London, and Jonathan Taylor, whose ADPs are higher than McCaffrey’s.
STAY AWAY
I am not rooting against these players, and I am not necessarily drafting some of them, but these are running backs I have zero trust in for 2025.
