The 4-1 Buffalo Bills travel to Atlanta, where the Falcons are 2-2. Buffalo is coming off its first defeat this season after losing in a close 23-20 game versus division rival New England Patriots. Atlanta, on the other hand, is coming off a solid 34-27 victory over the Washington Commanders in week 4 before heading into their bye week last week. Buffalo is looking to rebound, while the Falcons’ main goal is to stay above .500, so who will prevail?
Stats to Know
Looking at the offenses, the Buffalo Bills are 1st in the league in total yards per game (395.8), and are 3rd in points per game (30.6), while the Atlanta Falcons are 6th in yards per game (362.8) but surprisingly 27th in points per game (19.0)—a 33-yard and about a 12 point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, how do their defenses stack up in this Monday night matchup? Buffalo’s defense ranks 7th in yards allowed per game (299.6), and for the second week in a row, the Bills rank 17th with 22.6 points allowed per game. Atlanta, on the other hand, is impressively leading the league through 5 weeks in yards allowed (244.0) and 16th in points allowed per game (21.5). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 55 yards more and allows about 1 more point per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 319 total yards and about 26 points, while the Falcons’ offense should have around 332 yards and about 21 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a 4-point advantage overall, with the line from Vegas being -4.5, favoring Buffalo. The Falcons are 2-2 covering the spread, while the Bills are 2-3 covering. It’s worth noting the Bills are 1-3 against the spread when favored by 3.5 or more. Betting the Falcons at +4.5 might sound crazy to some, but I don’t trust our secondary, and we could be facing another upset this week.
Hot and Cold
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this Monday night matchup.
- Dalton Kincaid had a monstrous game against the Patriots last week; unfortunately, his efforts failed to get the win. Nonetheless, Kincaid, absent from his poor week 4 performance, has been great through 5 weeks as he’s gotten 4 receptions in each game (other than week 4) and 3 TDs on the year. Coming off his best game of the season, Kincaid looks to continue this momentum in Atlanta.
- Josh Allen, now I know what you’re thinking, Josh Allen? How can he be cold? Well, in the last two games, he’s turned the ball over 3 times, 2 interceptions, and a fumble loss. When Allen plays clean football, it translates to wins; when he starts trying too much, it leads to turnovers and sometimes is costly, as it was last week. Hopefully, Josh Allen can get it together sooner rather than later.
- Bijan Robinson is on fire right now as he sits 6th on the total yards list this season in just 4 games with 584 yards. Robinson has over 100 total yards in each of the first four games of the season, 3 of which he has over 125 total yards. He will be a force to be reckoned with as the Bills’ defense is 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (145.6). Robinson will likely have another game of over 100 total yards, possibly over 150.
- Michael Penix Jr., like Allen, has 3 turnovers over the last 2 games, all of which were interceptions. HC Sean McDermott and the Bills defense prides itself on winning the turnover battle, so if Penix Jr. has any chance of beating Buffalo this week, he absolutely needs to maintain possession and not throw any interceptions.
Game Predictions
Josh Allen cleans it up after back-to-back games with a turnover. Dalton Kincaid backs up his week 5 performance with another great game. Lastly, we see Bijan Robinson put up over 150 total yards against Buffalo.
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