College football in Week 8 brought its fair share of excitement, along with some chaos at the top of the rankings. Miami fell to Louisville by a score of 24-21, with Carson Beck throwing 4 INTs. Matt Rhule seemed to be daydreaming about the Penn State job while Nebraska lost to Minnesota 24-6. Georgia outlasted Ole Miss in a game where defense didn’t exist. Texas Tech, while playing without QB Behren Morton, was upset by Arizona State. Brian Kelly lost yet another big matchup- this time against Vanderbilt. What does Week 9 have in store for us?
#13 Oklahoma vs. #8 Ole Miss
Location: Memorial Stadium in Norman, OK
Spread: Oklahoma (-5.5)
Over/Under: 54.5
ML: Oklahoma (-215), Ole Miss (+180)
The Ole Miss Defense
It’s almost impossible to play worse than the Ole Miss defense played against Georgia last Saturday. Georgia had nine possessions that resulted in: field goal, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, touchdown, touchdown, touchdown, field goal, kneel out. Ole Miss allowed 34 first downs, 510 total yards, and almost 38 minutes in time of possession on just nine possessions.
Ole Miss has now allowed 35 and 43 points in two of its last three SEC games. The Rebels now rank #61 in yards per play allowed, #108 in yards per carry allowed, #100 in sacks, and #127 in takeaways per game. Good news for Ole Miss is that Oklahoma’s offense is sputtering. John Mateer looks like a much worse version of himself since returning from his hand injury. Additionally, the OU offense ranks #100 in yards per carry, averaging just 3.7 yards per carry.
This game will be a classic case of “movable object versus stoppable force.”
Before his hand injury, Mateer threw for 392, 270, 282, and 271 yards across four games. Since returning from the hand injury, Mateer has thrown for 202 and 150 yards. Mateer also threw three INTs against the Texas Longhorns. College football fans will be watching this game closely, as many wonder whether Mateer was brought back too soon.
The OU offense has seen a significant drop-off in explosivity since Mateer’s return, averaging just 5.3 yards per pass against Texas and 5.8 yards per pass against South Carolina. Even against one of the worst statistical defenses in college football, OU managed just 26 points on 11 full possessions. All of these struggles correlate with Mateer’s hand injury. Oklahoma’s willingness to push the ball downfield with John Mateer will be a vital factor in determining whether OU can exploit Ole Miss’s defense.
#10 Vanderbilt vs. #15 Missouri
Location: FirstBank Stadium in Nashville, TN
Spread: Vanderbilt (-2.5)
Over/Under: 51.5
ML: Vanderbilt (-140), Missouri (+120)
Vanderbilt Run Offense vs. Missouri Run Defense
Vanderbilt possesses one of college football’s premier dual-threat QBs and overall rushing attacks. The Commodores are currently ranked #3 in the nation in yards per carry, averaging 6.4. They also rank #14 in rushing yards per game, averaging 215.7. The veer offense creates chunk yardage almost every snap, helping Vanderbilt consistently reach short-yardage situations. That’s why Vanderbilt ranks #2 in college football in 3rd down conversion rate. QB Diego Pavia averages 5.7 YPC, while RB Sedrick Alexander also averages 5.7 YPC. Vanderbilt averaged 5.3 YPC against LSU and 7.1 YPC against Alabama.
On the other side of this equation is the Missouri defense, which currently ranks #7 in yards per carry allowed at 2.7 YPC. The Tigers are allowing 72.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks #2. They’re also #8 in 3rd down conversion defense, allowing just 28.75% of third downs.
Each of these teams averages seven tackles for loss per game, so we’ll see which offensive unit can prevent itself from going backward.
In Missouri’s first five games, Hardy rushed for 100, 112, 250, 138, and 130 yards. In Missouri’s last two games, Hardy has rushed for 52 and 58 yards. Those last two games ended in a Missouri loss and a Missouri win in double overtime. The outcome of this game will likely correlate with Hardy’s rushing total.
The Vanderbilt defense currently ranks #35 in college football in yards per carry allowed at 3.6 YPC. The Commodores allow just 99.5 rushing yards per game, which ranks #16.
A 100-yard rushing performance from Ahmad Hardy likely leads to a Missouri victory. If Hardy is held under 60 yards for the third straight game, Vanderbilt is likely victorious.
Other Games to Monitor
Memphis vs. #18 South Florida
This is the battle for the G5 college football playoff spot. The two best teams in the G5 will battle it out to represent their peers. Both teams feature explosive offenses ranking in the top 12 in points per game. Expect this game to be decided on the ground, as both teams average over 40 rushing attempts per game.
Mississippi State vs. #22 Texas
This will be yet another SEC road game for Arch Manning. Texas lost on the road to Florida a few weeks ago and beat Kentucky by three points in double overtime last week. The Longhorns will now face 60,000 cowbells on Saturday afternoon. Mississippi State is seeking its first SEC win since 2023, while the Longhorns are looking to avoid playoff elimination. Mississippi State might be winless in the conference, but the Bulldogs have played one-possession games in two of their three SEC matchups.
It’s do-or-die time for Brian Kelly down in Baton Rouge. LSU already has two losses and is staring down Texas A&M, Alabama, and Oklahoma in the next five games. Texas A&M looks to remain the highest-ranked SEC team. The Aggies will look to build a case for the nation’s #1 team, while the Tigers will fight to stay alive in both the SEC and playoff races.
