Happy late Thanksgiving, everyone. I am thankful for my family, friends, and most importantly, Josh Allen, being in my life. The Buffalo Bills don’t need to travel far this week as they go to Pittsburgh and take on a 6-5 Steelers team in a tight battle for the AFC North. Buffalo also made a notable move this week, signing veteran WR Brandin Cooks; releasing Elijah Moore in the process.
Injuries have been a concern for the Bills over the past few weeks, and they could be without LT Dion Dawkins and RT Spencer Brown, who each got banged up last week. The Steelers will also be without their LT in Broderick Jones, so expect these defensive lines to feast this week.
Stats to Know
Let’s take a look at each team’s offense. The Buffalo Bills are 3rd in the league in total yards per game (381.8) and are 5th in points per game (28.3). The Pittsburgh Steelers, on the other hand, are 27th in yards per game (292.2). Despite being 27th in YPG, Pittsburgh is surprisingly 11th in points per game (24.9)—a 89-yard difference and about a 3-point advantage in Buffalo’s favor.
Now, let’s take a look at how their defenses stack up in this matchup. Buffalo’s defense ranks 13th in yards allowed per game (317.1). The Bills rank 17th with 22.9 points allowed per game. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, is 28th in the league through 12 weeks in yards allowed (364.5) and 20th in points allowed per game (23.9). Buffalo’s defense, on average, allows about 47 yards less than the Steelers and allows just 1 less point per game.
Now, let’s take these numbers and average them out. The Bills’ offense should have around 373 total yards and about 26 points, while the Steelers’ offense should have around 305 yards and about 24 points on Sunday. This gives the Bills a slim 2-point but large 68-yard advantage overall, with the Vegas line being -3.5, favoring Buffalo. The Steelers are 5-6 covering the spread, while the Bills are also 5-6 covering. Betting the Bills at -3.5 is actually a decent line in my opinion; however, as mentioned earlier, if Buffalo is without both Dawkins and Brown, I can see the Steelers’ pass rush overwhelming Josh Allen and forcing some turnovers.
Who’s Hot & Who’s Cold?
As always, let’s take a look at some players on both teams that are hot and some that are cold heading into this matchup.
- Khalil Shakir is coming off his best game of the season, and Buffalo desperately needs Shakir to produce heading into the playoffs, as the Bills’ lack of WR depth may be their downfall in a season that is wide open for the AFC.
- Greg Rousseau has been alright this season, but he just hasn’t had a dominant stretch of football. I was expecting his sack numbers to go up now that Joey Bosa was on the opposite side of him, but Rousseau sits at just 3 sacks this season.
- T.J. Watt is having a quiet year by his standards; however, in his last game, he racked up 5 tackles, a sack, and a forced fumble. With Buffalo possibly being without both starting tackles, I expect Watt and the Steelers’ pass rush to control the game.
- DK Metcalf is in a slump right now, averaging only 31 yards a game over the past 4 games. OC Arthur Smith and HC Mike Tomlin need to make it a priority to get Metcalf the ball. Without him being heavily involved in the offense, defenses around the league don’t need to respect Pittsburgh’s pass game.
Game Predictions
I’ll keep it simple: if Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown are both out, the Steelers’ pass rush will be too much and disrupt Josh Allen with Pittsburgh winning, but if at least Dawkins or Brown plays, I’ll give the edge to Buffalo. Either way, I do believe DK has a nice bounce-back game after his recent struggles and gets at least 75 total yards. Ty Johnson also continues his role in Buffalo’s pass game.
A Look Ahead
Buffalo hosts the Cincinnati Bengals next week, and the Bengals will be well rested after defeating the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving, followed by a key AFC East game to could potentially decide the division and any hopes for the #1 seed as Buffalo travels to Foxborough in hopes of getting revenge on the New England Patriots.
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