Last week was just disgusting for my Sleepers & Duds as the only great hits were the dud calls for Indianapolis’ Jonathan Taylor and Tyler Warren.
The rest of the picks were an absolute mess, but at least it’s a new week.
Keeping the intro short this week so we can get into the Week 13 plays!
QB Sleepers
C.J. Stroud, Houston
Stroud is coming off of an injury and the offense was just doing enough with Davis Mills under center. But the Texans need their most talented QB playing to get into the AFC Conference playoffs.
Houston currently sits 7th in the AFC playoff standings behind the strong play of its defense, but Stroud give the offense a little more passing power.
Stroud was averaging 263.7 passing yards in his last three full games played, while Mills only averaged 239.7 passing yards in their three-game winning streak.
The Colts are a bottom 5 team in pass defense this season, giving up 245.4 yards a game. And they just gave up 346 passing yards to Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes last week.
QB Duds
Matthew Stafford, LA Rams
Stafford is one of the names that keeps popping up in NFL MVP talks for this season, but he may find the road tough in Charlotte against Carolina.
The Panthers enter the game as the 8th best defense against QB scoring this season and give up 211.2 passing yards a game this season.
And Stafford has continued to throw touchdowns in road games this year with 14 of his 30 in road contest, but his passing numbers slip. He averages 282.2 passing yards at home compared to 227.4 passing yards in road games.
RB Sleepers
Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh
I think both Jaylen Warren and Gainwell are good plays this week as Buffalo gives up 148.9 rushing yards a game this season.
I’ll lean to Gainwell because he will be on the field in the 2-minute offense and if the Steelers are trailing (the Bills are 3-point favorites), Gainwell will be on the field in that situation.
And Gainwell has been the hot RB in the offense the last two weeks. He’s averaged 23.9 points the last 2 weeks.
WR Sleepers
John Metchie III, NY Jets
Metchie III has taken over the WR No. 1 role for the Jets with Garrett Wilson still out with a knee injury.
In Wilson’s absence, Metchie III is averaging 84 snap percentage over the last two games.
During that time he’s averaged 16 fantasy points and now faces an Atlanta pass defense that has struggled the last three games.
The Falcons have given up 276.3 passing yards a game in their last three.
WR Duds
Davante Adams, LA Rams
Adams has been a scoring machine this season, but he has scored a touchdown (12) on 25 percent of his receptions (48) this season.
Can he continue to sustain this rate? Probably not.
And just like I mention under Stafford’s write-up, the Carolina has limited opponents’ passing games this season and have only allowed 7 receiving TDs.
TE Sleepers
Gunnar Helm, Tennessee
If Chig Okonkwo misses this game, Helm becomes a great play and has a real chance of the TE1-tier finish this week.
Jacksonville is Top 5 in receptions allowed, yards allowed and TDs allowed to TEs this season. And they give up 10.8 fantasy points to the position as well.
Plus, Helm was playing almost many snaps for the Titans as Okowkwo the last two weeks. Helms has played just two less snap than his veteran counterpart.
TE Duds
Pittsburgh TEs
The Steelers passing game has revolved around TEs this season as it’s been a guessing game trying to pick who to start between Pat Freiermuth, Darnell Washington and Jonnu Smith.
Now that choice becomes easier – the Buffalo defense has completely shut down TEs this season.
The Bills only give up 3.3 fantasy points a game this season against the position.
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