Fantasy football managers know that every lineup decision can make or break a week, and choosing the right players to start or sit is where championships are won. With the 2025 NFL season underway, matchups, stats, and trends are more important than ever. From favorable matchups and scoring trends to players you should avoid in tough spots, my weekly positional start and sit guide is built to give you an edge.
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Start or Sit Justin Jefferson?
Justin Jefferson remains one of the most talented wide receivers in the NFL, and despite some inconsistency this season, he continues to see elite volume and opportunity. In eight games with J.J. McCarthy under center, Jefferson has recorded 43.9 receiving yards per game. The silver lining though, is that the usage is great, including a 29.1% target share, 34.7% first-read share, and 11 red zone targets during that stretch. Last week, Jefferson nearly had two touchdowns, but one was called back by penalty, and the other slipped through his hands, highlighting that he remains a high-upside play even if results haven’t fully materialized with his usage. He has failed to reach 5.0 fantasy points in three straight games and hasn’t exceeded 11.1 points in six consecutive contests, showing the disconnect between talent and production so far this season.
The Vikings face the Giants this week, a team that has allowed the fourth-most PPR points per game to wide receivers and ranks 13th in receiving yards per game allowed and 12th in PPR points per target to perimeter wideouts since Week 10. Jefferson continues to be targeted at the same rate as top receivers, keeping him central to Minnesota’s passing attack. With a favorable matchup on tap, the opportunity for a rebound game is there. Fantasy managers should roll him out in the WR2 or flex spot, trusting that the talent and opportunity will translate. While the results haven’t always been there, Jefferson’s target share, route participation, and red-zone usage make him a strong bet for a productive outing.
Wide Receivers to Start
Ladd McConkey LAC
Ladd McConkey has struggled over the past month, scoring 4.3 PPR points or fewer in three of his last four games and totaling just 6.2 points in his past two outings. Over the last six weeks, McConkey has seen both his target share and 1st read share dip below 18% which has resulted in the lack of production. Despite the slump, McConkey has upside this week against Dallas, which has allowed the most fantasy points and touchdowns to opposing receivers over the last month. Eight wideouts have scored at least 11.4 PPR points against Dallas in the past five games, combining for eight touchdowns, highlighting the volume-friendly environment. With Quentin Johnston (groin) likely sidelined, McConkey could see an increase in targets, improving his fantasy floor.
Dallas’ defense has been vulnerable to slot receivers specifically, allowing the tenth-most PPR points per target and seventh-most receiving yards per game since Week 10. Given the matchup, he is viable as a WR2/flex option for the fantasy semifinals. While McConkey’s recent output has been disappointing, the Cowboys’ defensive profile sets up an opportunity for him to regain his form. Fantasy managers can reasonably expect him to flirt with top-18 production this week. His efficiency numbers, while low, could be boosted by volume in a game that has scoring potential for the Chargers.
DK Metcalf PIT
DK Metcalf has scored at least 14.4 PPR points in three of his last four games, showing consistent production despite a minor midseason dip. Over the last eight weeks, Detroit has allowed the second-most points to wide receivers, including perimeter targets, making this a favorable matchup for Metcalf. He ranks WR25 in fantasy points per game with a 21.5% target share, 57.7 receiving yards per game, and a 28% first-read share, reflecting steady involvement in the Steelers’ passing game. Metcalf also leads the Steelers with 13 red-zone targets and 16 deep targets this season, highlighting his role in both high-leverage areas and explosive plays. In his past two games against Baltimore and Miami, he had 10 catches for 203 yards and a touchdown, suggesting he can handle high-volume matchups.
Detroit has allowed the fifth-most PPR points per target and the most receiving yards per game to perimeter receivers since Week 10, making Metcalf a strong WR2/flex play. With consistent target volume and red-zone opportunity, he has the potential to build on his recent streak of 14-plus PPR point games. The matchup against the Lions provides a chance for Metcalf to exploit a defense that has allowed eight receivers to score at least 12 PPR points in the past four games. Fantasy managers can feel confident relying on his combination of volume, athleticism, and efficiency in what appears to be a high-scoring game. His recent usage and historical performance against similar defenses set him up for success in Week 16.
Jauan Jennings SF
Since Week 9, Jauan Jennings has been a reliable option as the WR20 in fantasy points per game with a 28% 1st read share. He has capitalized on red-zone and deep opportunities, with nine red-zone targets and four deep targets leading to six touchdowns over his last six games. In Week 15 against Tennessee, Jennings caught three passes for 37 yards and two scores, demonstrating his ability to convert limited looks into high-value fantasy production. Jennings has scored in five of his past six games, including three consecutive weeks with a touchdown, proving his consistency in finding the end zone. With Ricky Pearsall (ankle) likely out for San Francisco, Jennings could see an increase in target share, further boosting his fantasy floor and ceiling.
The Colts’ defense has allowed the third-most receiving yards per game and fifth-most fantasy points per game to perimeter wideouts since Week 10, providing an exploitable matchup. The Colts have allowed nine different receivers to score at least 11.5 PPR points over their last five games, highlighting the opportunity for good production. Jennings’s floor has been 9.4 points in the last six weeks, and with the favorable matchup, it makes his ceiling enticing. Fantasy managers can expect Jennings to flirt with WR2 production again this week, especially if Ricky Pearsall is unable to suit up.
Wide Receivers to Sit
Jaylen Waddle MIA
Jaylen Waddle has struggled in recent weeks, scoring 8.2 PPR points or fewer in three of his past four games. Since Week 10, Miami’s per-route numbers remain strong, but a shift to a run-first approach has decreased his passing volume and weekly ceiling. Over his last five games, Waddle has averaged 50.4 receiving yards on a 27.4% target share and a 35.6% first-read share, totaling only 6.2 targets per game despite some elite usage numbers. He has had just two red-zone targets and seven deep targets during that span, limiting his scoring opportunities. With Miami utilizing the run game more and Waddle’s lack of production in the red zone, it has resulted in less production. With rookie Quinn Ewers starting under center, there is further uncertainty this week.
Cincinnati has allowed just one receiver to score double-digit PPR points in each of its past five games, ranking fifth-fewest in fantasy points allowed to wideouts. Waddle is likely to face shadow coverage from DJ Turner this week, who has effectively contained high-profile wideouts this season. Waddle’s path to a productive game is hindered by both the matchup and the quarterback situation, making him a risky WR2 at best. Fantasy managers should be cautious starting him, as his low floor could negatively impact playoff performance. This week, Waddle profiles better as a bench option rather than a lineup lock.
Stefon Diggs NE
Stefon Diggs has been inconsistent over the past three games, combining for only 15.2 PPR points on eight catches for 72 yards and no touchdowns. His route participation and target share have dipped, with a 58.6% route share, 13% target share, and 17.6% first-read share last week, translating to low WR3-level usage. Since Week 8, Diggs has only produced two top-24 weekly finishes, despite averaging 39.3 receiving yards, 1.67 yards per route run, and 18.8% first-read share across seven games. The decline in consistent opportunity has limited his scoring potential, even with red-zone and deep target involvement. Baltimore’s defense has allowed the ninth-most receiving yards per game to perimeter wideouts while ranking 17th in fantasy points per game, creating an environment where upside exists but is limited.
This matchup does not significantly improve his fantasy outlook, making Diggs a low-floor option in Week 16. His decreased route share and target volume reduce the likelihood of a high-scoring performance. Managers should only consider him in deep, three-receiver leagues where volume can compensate for low efficiency. With his recent three-game skid and the volatility of the Patriots’ passing game, Diggs is unlikely to produce consistent WR2 output. Fantasy managers should treat him cautiously and avoid relying on him in starting lineups.
Michael Pittman Jr IND
Michael Pittman Jr. had a rough first outing with Philip Rivers under center in Week 15, totaling three catches for 26 yards on five targets. Rivers’ game manager approach limited deep attempts, with only two completions of 10-plus air yards on 27 attempts, spreading targets across multiple players. Pittman ranks WR17 in fantasy points per game with a 21.6% target share, 51.8 receiving yards per game, and a 25.1% first-read share, but last week he finished WR64, illustrating the volatility with Rivers. Pittman is third on the Colts in red-zone targets (10) and second in deep targets (8), yet those opportunities are muted by a quarterback who is not stretching the field. While Pittman had a hot start to the season, his fantasy production is severely limited for the rest of the season with Rivers at quarterback.
Pittman is getting some more love this week due to his favorable matchup against a struggling 49ers defense. Since Nick Bosa went down earlier this year, they have ranked bottom ten in the NFL in pressure rate, and has resulted in favorable production for opposing receivers. Fantasy managers should view Pittman as a middling flex play at best due to the unlikely opportunity of Phillip Rivers connecting with him over 10+ yards. With the playoff semifinals approaching, starting him presents unnecessary risk. Playing it safe by avoiding Colts receivers in a Rivers-led offense is the prudent choice.
