For the first time in over a month, UFC has a numbered event, headlined by a rematch of two of the best mixed martial artists in UFC history. It’s been over a decade since Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira stood opposed to each other in the octagon. Both have had stints as UFC champions, setting records along the way, with Holloway leading UFC history in most significant strikes (3,655), while Oliveira leads in finishes (21) and submission victories (17). No matter the outcome of the main event, it is sure to be fireworks. Nonetheless, there are 13 fights scheduled in Las Vegas, Nevada. Here’s who will come out on top and the best bets for each contest.
(All bet lines are by DraftKings)
(4) Max Holloway (C) vs. (3) Charles Oliveira: BMF Title Lightweight Bout
Despite being 3-3 in his last six fights, Charles Oliveira’s losses are to some of the highest quality opponents (Islam Makhachev, Arman Tsarukyan, Ilia Topuria). He faces another top lightweight in Max Holloway, who’s losses might be even more impressive (Topuria, Alexander Volkanovski 3x, Dustin Poirier 2x, Conor McGregor). This isn’t the first time these two faced off, as over a decade ago, Holloway knocked out Oliveira in 2015.
Holloway will throw a flurry of strikes (7.2 significant strikes per minute) and will always search for that highlight-worthy KO. Oliveira is great on the ground and can find finishes in different ways. Holloway does defend the takedown very well, denying his opponents from 83% of their attempts. Oliveira can also stand and bang, if need be. It’s a tough pick, for both picks’ sake and because both fighters are fan favorites.
Prediction: Max Holloway (-220)
Best Bets: Max Holloway 100+ Significant Strikes (+100)
(7) Caio Borralho vs. (8) Reinier de Ridder: Middleweight Bout
Both fighters are in big bounce-back spots, looking to find a way into the top-heavy middleweight title picture. Both are on the heels of losses to top-five opponents in the division. Caio Borralho holds the striking advantage, while de Ridder can wrestle well.
On a card where the main event is hard to predict, the co-main isn’t any easier. All of de Ridder’s losses are by knockout, with the most recent loss being because he couldn’t continue after the fourth round. With this being a three-round fight, there’s a good chance that he won’t be as worn down.
Prediction: Reinier de Ridder (+210)
Best Bet: Over 2.5 Rounds (-195)
(13) Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr.: Bantamweight Bout
From last week’s Best Bets, clearly, the age disadvantage didn’t affect King Green. But nonetheless, it’s always noteworthy when there is a wide age gap, and there is a 17-year difference between Rob Font and Raul Rosas Jr. With the gap, we get two very different fighters. Font is a technical striker, while Rosas Jr. is a great grappler.
So, the advantages are clear for each fighter. But the weaknesses aren’t as apparent for Rosas Jr. For Font, he has no takedown defense, allowing 57% of his opponent’s takedowns to land. For a fighter like Rosas Jr., who averages four takedowns per fight, Font needs to tag Rosas Jr. and find a way to keep it on the feet. If it gets to the ground, Rosas Jr. could search for the finish, but you can guarantee he’ll get the fight to the mat.
Predictions: Raul Rosas Jr. (-270)
Best Bet: Raul Rosas Over 3.5 Takedowns Landed (-115)
Drew Dober vs. Michael Johnson: Lightweight Bout
If you look at Michael Johnson’s fight history, it’s unfair to let his record dictate the perception of his ability. Khabib, Nate Diaz, Justin Gaethje, Beniel Dariush. He’s had to prepare for some of the best. And now, he draws Drew Dober, who is an exciting fighter, having logged 16 knockout wins in his MMA career.
But, as much as he can pop his opponents, he’s fallen victim to his own medicine. In one of his fights in each of the last three years, he’s been put down on the canvas. His significant shots landed to significant shots taken is nearly 1:1, and with no real ground game, offensively or defensively, he’s going to search for the big shot. Johnson is much more technical and will wait for his window to strike.
Prediction: Michael Johnson (-118)
Best Bet: Michael Johnson Over 45.5 Significant Strikes (-115)
(13) Gregory Rodrigues vs. (15) Brunno Ferreira: Middleweight Bout
The last time these two faced, Brunno Ferreira knocked out Gregory Rodrigues. Despite this, Rodrigues enters this fight as the favorite. They both fight very similarly. The only flaw in Rodrigues’ game is his chin, having four of his six losses decided by knockout. With that, his opponents land about 4.8 significant strikes per minute.
Besides that, he is a solid, all-around fighter. He lands over 5.5 significant strikes per minute, averages about two takedowns per fight, and defends the takedown at a 75% clip. All of those stats are better than Ferreira’s. But the big concern is that chin. All it took was a clean left hook in the first contest to put his lights out. If Rodrigues can control the pace, he should have a clean path to victory, but that is a big if.
Prediction: Brunno Ferreira (+142)
Best Bet: Exact Method of Victory: KO/TKO/DQ (-185)
Cody Garbrandt vs. Xiao Long: Bantamweight Bout
Cody Garbrandt is one of the most fun fighters to watch in the bantamweight division. 15 of his 21 fights in his MMA career have ended by knockout (11-4 record). It has been over two years since a Garbrandt bout ended this way. Despite being seven years younger, Xiao Long has almost double the number of professional fights as Garbrandt (37).
Long connects on over five strikes per minute, but does absorb four per minute. He is a good stand-up fighter who can wrestle well when he gets to the ground. Long will keep the pressure on, so odds are that as the fight goes deep, the fight will favor him. But if he opens a window for Garbrandt to land a big strike, Long could suffer his fourth knockout loss in his MMA career and third in the UFC.
Prediction: Xiao Long (-162)
Best Bet: Fight to go the Distance (-150)
Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage: Middleweight Bout
Donte Johnson has yet to see a fight in his career go further than seven minutes in his professional career. He’s dominated across all aspects of his game. Cody Brundage can weather some striking storms, lands about two takedowns per fight and has the ability to chin his opponents.
With that, Brundage has an 11-8-1 record for a reason. In the same breath as he’s praised above, he’s not a great UFC fighter. Brundage will match the energy of his opponent. Johnson tries to find early finishes and Brundage could catch a strong strike to stumble his opponent. But if Brundage doesn’t catch him, Johnson will keep the train rolling.
Prediction: Donte Johnson (-800)
Best Bet: Fight to Start Round 2 (-125)
Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes: Featherweight Bout
Alberto Montes makes his UFC debut on the heels of an anaconda choke submission victory on Dana White’s Contender Series. Across his MMA career, Montes has ended six fights by submission, with four different holds, proving he has a deep bag of submission methods. He’s also a high volume strikes, landing almost five strikes per minute. He draws Ricky Turcios, who, in his UFC career, has been lackluster, and that’s putting it lightly.
He’s 2-3 in his last five fights, having lost one by submission and two by unanimous decision. As for his wins, he hasn’t dominated, winning both by split decision. His best asset is that he doesn’t get takedown too much (66% takedown defense) and doesn’t get finished often (just two finish losses).
Prediction: Alberto Montes (-192)
Best Bet: Fight to go the Distance (-130)
Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel: Flyweight Bout
After a UFC loss to Carlos Hernandez, in which he was knocked down and split the decision, Nyamjargal Tumendemberel had a huge bounce-back win against Terrance Saeteurn on Road to UFC: Shanghai. He draws Cody Durden, who is on a three-fight skid, including back-to-back finish losses.
Durden is a veteran with a wealth of experience, but his chin isn’t strong. He’s gotten submitted more than he’s been knocked out, so there are multiple avenues for Tumendemberel to finish this fight, as he averages over three takedowns per fight. In the same breath, Durden has finished 12 of his 17 wins, so odds are a referee is going to have to jump in, no matter the victor.
Prediction: Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-148)
Best Bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-166)
Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar: Flyweight Bout
Two very different styles of fighters in this fight. Sumudaerji lands about 55.5% of his strikes, who likes to keep it as a stand-up fight. Jesus Aguilar does shoot his takedowns wildly, but is a good grappler who finds a way to catch a lot of his opponents in a guillotine. Aguilar does a good job of not absorbing many big blows from his opponent.
Sumudaerji has picked up 13 knockout wins in his MMA career, but it has been over five years since. He does hold a four-inch height advantage and nearly a ten-inch reach advantage, so his method of victory is to keep distance between himself and Aguilar. Despite this, Aguilar can get in close and land close-range strikes, and if he gets it to the ground, he’ll search for the submission finish.
Prediction: Jesus Aguilar (+200)
Best Bet: Aguilar by Submission (+450)
Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay: Light Heavyweight Bout
After dominating across his first 10 MMA fights, Diyar Nurgozhay was 10-0, with eight finish wins, and had all the hype in the world when he entered the UFC. Since then, he’s been submitted twice and now has to face a great grappler in Rafael Tobias. Rafael Tobias is making his UFC debut after submitting Jair de Oliveira in the first round on Dana White’s Contender Series.
Nurgozhay is an aggressive wrestler, but if he gets put on his back, it’s going to be a problem. His way to victory has to be a standup game, as Tobias does allow 60% of his opponent’s shots to land. His only loss is by knockout, which could be tricky, as Nurgozhay drilled six of his previous opponents with knockouts. Both fighters have clear weaknesses that favor their opponent’s strengths. But I think the glaring flaw of Nurgozhay’s ground game will be the key flaw.
Prediction: Rafael Tobias (-185)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 Rounds (-125)
JeongYeong Lee vs. Gaston Bolaños: Featherweight Bout
Both of these fighters are looking to find consistency in the UFC. For JeonYeong Lee, after back-to-back decision wins to start his UFC career, he was knocked out by Hyder Amil in the first round, followed by a unanimous decision loss to Daniel Santos, where Santos dominated in all aspects.
As for Gaston Bolaños, he’s gone back and forth with wins and losses, picking up decision wins against Aaron Phillips and Cortavious Romious. His losses were both by finish, being knocked out by Marcus McGhee and, most recently, being submitted by Quang Le, where Le landed four of his seven takedown attempts.
That’s Lee’s method to victory. Bolaños struggles against the ground game, defending just 42% of his opponents’ takedowns. Now, Lee hasn’t ever been a guy who searches for too many takedowns, but this could very much be the strategy to get back in the win column.
Prediction: JeongYeong Lee (-325)
Best Bet: Lee by Submission (+400)
Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato: Light Heavyweight Bout
After one of the quickest knockouts in Dana White’s Contender Series, Luke Fernandez gets Rodolfo Bellato in his first UFC bout. Bellato is coming off a difficult 2025, which started with a draw against Jimmy Crute. Following that, Bellato had his fight against Paul Craig ruled as a No Contest, due to an illegal upkick by his opponent. Craig was up in the striking in the round, Bellato did land a takedown, so it’s curious to see how that fight would’ve finished.
For his final fight of 2025, Bellato faced Navajo Stirling, where Stirling dominated from start to finish. This isn’t to say Bellato isn’t a great fighter. He lands heavy strikes (5.13 significant strikes per minute) with good accuracy (62.22%). Fernandez is a heavy-handed striker, having knocked out five of his six opponents, four of which in the first round. He does have the gas tank to dominate a deeper fight, having won his final CFFC fight by unanimous decision in four rounds. Odds are, this fight won’t need to go the full 15 minutes, but this will be a good first test for Fernandez.
Prediction: Luke Fernandez (-230)
Best Bet: Fight to Start Round 3: No (-170)
