I came close to picking a winner from my Betting Guide last week.
Nicolai Hojgaard was there on the back 9 but he missed birdie putts on No. 13, No. 14 and No. 18 to lead to a two-stroke deficit to eventual Truist Championship winner Kristoffer Reitan.
However, I did win one of my Top 20 with ties play with Alex Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick entered the final round with lead but a slow start led to T4 finish.
Now this week, we have major No. 2 of the year with the PGA Championship at Aronimink Golf Club right outside of Philadelphia.
Scottie Scheffler is the defending champion after winning last year at Quail Hallow Club.
Aronimink is a Donald Ross designed course which means the turtleback greens will make low scoring tough to come by.
Elite approach play will determine this week’s winner.
Let’s get into my picks this week! Odds are from DraftKings.
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Collin Morikawa (+4000)
Yeah, I know there are still concerns of Morikawa’s back but when you are going to play a Donald Ross course, you need that elite approach game.
Morikawa is the second best approach player this season on the PGA Tour and is ranked in the Top 20 for this week for the combined approach buckets of 175-200 yards and 200-225 yards.
And since his back injury, he has a T7 at The Masters and a T4 at the RBC Heritage. But his weakest club is his putter that failed him for a T62 at the Cadillac Championship two weeks ago.
But this tournament should not be a birdie fest where he needs make a lot of putts to stay into contention.
J.J. Spaun (+7400)
Spaun has already proven he can win a major with his victory last year at the U.S. Open, and he struggled at the beginning of this year trying to live up to his big win.
After missing 4 cuts in his first 7 tournaments of the year, Spaun has a win at Valero Texas Open and three other Top 25 finishes in five tournaments.
He is another golfer who will use his elite approach play to overcome his putting inefficiency this season.
Jordan Smith (+25000)
When I was doing my DFS spreadsheet, there were few lower priced golfers who I knew grade well for this tournament.
But Smith was the surprise.
And just like Morikawa and Spaun, he has a strong approach game and a weak putter, but what sets him apart from the other golfers in his betting range his elite off the tee and tee to green play.
Top 20 with ties
Alex Smalley (+295): Smalley is another golfer that has been undervalued the last few weeks. He’s Top 30 on the Tour in six of my 11 categories.
Alex Fitzpatrick (+325): I’m going to play the hot hand until he fizzles out. The younger Fitzpatrick has played some of the best golf of his young career the last three weeks, and he has the skillset to play well at Aronimink.
One and Done
Si Woo Kim: I’m going to continue the same tune of elite approach players with weak putting games for my One and Done play this week. Si Woo is playing the best golf of his career but still doesn’t have a win this year because of his putter.
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