Si Woo Kim’s Sunday struggles ended my Betting Guide’s chance of another outright winner.
Wyndham Clark picked up his first win since the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as his strong Sunday round caught Si Woo to win the THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson title last Sunday.
This week the PGA Tour heads to the historic Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.
Ben Griffin picked up the win last year as he held off Matti Schmid.
Griffin is backed to defend his title vs. a less than stellar field.
The DraftKings’ DFS field has only two 10K golfers this week and they are at the top of the betting boards too. Ludvig Aberg and Russell Henley are this week’s favorites.
But let’s take a look at my favorite Bets to Win plays! Odds are provided by DraftKings.
Betting Guide: Bets to Win
Ricky Fowler (+2350)
Fowler enters the week a media darling to win the Charles Schwab Challenge and his odds make that apparent.
Fowler profiles as one of the best course fits in my DFS spreadsheet this week. He ranks high in the categories that traditionally matter most at Colonial: Solid tee to green play, elite putting, strong scrambling and reliable overall accuracy metrics.
Colonial rewards players who avoid mistakes, scramble well, and capitalize with the putter, and Fowler checks all three boxes.
J.J. Spaun (+3100)
Thanks to the weaker field like last week’s event, I’m leaning heavily on better odds plays this week, and Spaun should be itching to get back to play in Texas.
Spaun won the Valero Texas Open for the second time in his career last month. His only other PGA victory was at the U.S. Open last year.
He grades out as one of the strongest pure iron players on my spreadsheet. He ranks 8th in approach, 14th tee to green, and 20th in GIR, while also showing elite proximity numbers from 100-175 yards — my key approach buckets this week.
Colonial consistently rewards precision iron play over power, and Spaun’s statistical profile fits that blueprint.
Alex Smalley (+3400)
Smalley comes into this week’s event playing some his best golf of his career. He has five straight Top 25 finishes in his last five starts, including a T2 at the PGA Championship.
He comes to Colonial ranked in the Top 35 on the Tour in tee to green, approach, putting, greens in regulation and bogey avoidance, and his balance off the tee adds to this week’s value as a Bet to Win.
And if he can put four sub-70 rounds together, he should be in contention for the victory.
Top 20 with ties
Davis Thompson (+205): Both of my picks for Top 20 finishes seem to rounding back into form that made them PGA Tour winners in the past. Thompson’s short game gives him a strong floor on a course where missed greens are inevitable and par saves become critical.
Tom Kim (+215): Kim hasn’t been contention to win a Tour event since losing in a playoff to Scottie Scheffler at the 2024 Travelers Championship, but his game is rounding back into form with his accuracy off the tee, strong iron play and solid putting.
One and Done
Russell Henley: Colonial is one of those courses that play into Henley’s strengths: Accuracy, great iron play and putting. I would hold out for one of the final two signature events to play Aberg.
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