For the first time this season, the Houston Astros are on a hot streak. Over the last 30 games, they have a record of 18-12, one of the best marks in the American League during that stretch. This streak has propelled them back into the postseason conversation. They are three games behind the Seattle Mariners for first place in the AL West and two games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the second wild card spot. Part of the reason they are close to the playoffs is because of a weak AL Central, but this hot streak has brought hope back to Houston.
Not only do the Astros have hope, but they have also changed how the front office approaches the upcoming deadline. A few weeks ago, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that they would be sellers. But according to USA Today, the Astros are planning to be buyers at the deadline. They are going to be targeting bullpen help and a left-handed outfielder. While you have to respect a team for trying to win, buying at this year’s deadline is a major mistake for the Astros.
Buying at the Deadline is a Mistake For the Astros
Although the Astros have been playing well for the past month, that was not the case at the start of the season. Even with this impressive streak, they still hold a 37-42 record. If you take out the last 30 games, their record is 19-30. Sure, they have gotten healthier with the return of guys like Josh Hader. But that start of the season is a much larger sample size. It is much more likely that the team is closer to the one that struggled at the start of the season, compared to the one that has been playing recently.
We have seen teams in the past use a hot streak to justify buying at the deadline, just for it to blow up in their face. The most common example is when the Pittsburgh Pirates traded for Chris Archer. They went on a 10-game winning streak right before the deadline, and felt that Archer could propel them to a playoff spot. Of course, it was shown that the winning streak was just a fluke, and the Pirates continued to struggle. You can also make the argument that the Archer trade set the franchise back years.
Missing the playoffs is still a very real possibility for the Astros, even if the Astros buy. Sure, they have good pieces like Yordan Alvarez and Christian Walker, but a lot of the other pieces on the team are struggling. Plus, they will have several guys coming off the IL within the next couple of weeks, and it might take them a little bit to knock the rust off. This could lead to another cold streak that buries them further in the division. It could turn a bad season into one of the worst in franchise history.
This scenario would destroy the organization’s future. They already have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, and to get what they need, they will have to trade away whatever talent they have in it. If the Astros make several moves and still fail to make the postseason, they will be in a worse position moving forward. They will have an older roster, with no top prospects on the horizon that can put the Astros back into contention. It will likely take another five-plus years rebuild for them to be back in contention.
While it may be hard for fans to accept, the best move for the Astros is to be sellers at the deadline. Trading guys like Alvarez and Walker will allow them to restock their farm system and avoid a long rebuild. Instead of taking five plus years, selling this season could make the Astros contenders again in just two or three seasons.
