Every year, there are a handful of players at every position who go way too high in drafts and outright ruin their value overall. Here are five players that you should avoid drafting at their current ADP.
QB Drake Maye | New England Patriots
ADP: 42 (QB3)
Drake Maye undeniably had a historic season, aiding the Patriots’ return to Super Bowl form. That was, in large part, due to one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. Now I can go on and on about that, but let’s stick to what’s important and why I am fading Drake Maye.
Maye was the QB2 last season with 360.0 points, but do you know who QB3 was? Matthew Stafford, whose ADP is 110 despite having 358.3 points. Another QB who’s up there with Drake Maye’s fantasy production is Trevor Lawrence, who finished as the QB4 with 350.2 points.
Why am I bringing up other QBs who finished near Maye? It’s not that I don’t think Maye can produce good numbers this season; it’s all about his ADP. Josh Allen is the only QB who has regularly maintained top two QB production over the last 6 seasons.
Drafting Maye in the 3rd to even 5th round is just a significant reach when you take into consideration the fact that you can get other QBs much further down the board, and if you take Maye, you’re likely going to have a depleted RB or WR room, as you’ll have to neglect one of them to take him.
RB Kenneth Walker | Kansas City Chiefs
ADP: 13 (RB6)
There are a few things I’m looking at when viewing Kenneth Walker as he goes into his first-ever role as the feature back. In 4 years, his best ranking was RB18 as a rookie; last year, he was RB22 with 191.9 points. If you combine Walker and Charbonnet’s production, that leaves Walker with 373.3 points, which could rank him at RB2 last season.
All that sounds great until you realize that would require him getting 405 carries, and there have only been 5 RBs in NFL history to reach this milestone, most recently Chiefs legend Larry Johnson in 2006. During the Andy Reid era, the Chiefs have yet to see a RB eclipse the 300-carry mark, all while they’ve traditionally had multiple RBs.
I think a good starting point to estimate Walker’s production this season is to combine his and Charbonnet’s total carries, while also evaluating the Chiefs’ backfield last season. Hunt and Pacheco obtained 281 attempts; Walker and Charbs had 405 attempts. So if we add up the total attempts he would’ve had without Charbonnet and the total attempts of Hunt and Pacheco, divide that by 2, and we get 343 attempts, which not only would be a first under Andy Reid’s tenure but also the highest of any Chief since Larry Johnson.
In my eyes, Kenneth Walker’s ceiling is his ADP, and that’s all, while giving him the benefit of the doubt that he has more rushing attempts than any Chiefs RB in the Andy Reid era. I like players that have much higher ceilings than their ADP suggests.
RB: RJ Harvey | Denver Broncos
ADP: 54 (RB21)
JK Dobbins is the clear No. 1 in Denver. Now everyone will say Dobbins is injury-prone; Harvey will produce at the end of the year again – he could, he very well could – but at 3.7 yards a carry, and Denver spending a 4th-round pick on Jonah Coleman, don’t be surprised to see Coleman getting some snaps.
Focusing more on the crowd that wants to stash Harvey in the event Dobbins gets hurt again, why risk it when there are other starting RBs in this range? Cam Skattebo is RB22 right now and the clear-cut RB1 in NYG, with Tracey only getting some passing game work. If Tuten wins the starting Job, he should get more playing time than Harvey.
Chicago’s D’Andre Swift, Houston’s David Montgomery and Cleveland’s Quinshon Jundkins, all of them are RB1s on their respective teams. Avoid Harvey at all costs, especially when Dobbins is at No. 101 and a steal if you can grab Dobbins while grabbing a guy like Swift/Monty. Assuming you were able to grab one great RB early, your room will be much more consistent than drafting Harvey.
WR Parker Washington | Jacksonville Jaguars
ADP: 98 (WR42)
Like Harvey, Washington produced late last year, but in this area you’re looking to fill your bench with consistent, high-volume guys that you can fill in during bye weeks or an injury. Brian Thomas was dealing with an injury last season. The Jags traded for Jakobi Meyers and paid him; they also spent high draft capital on Travis Hunter, who may spend some time on offense. We just don’t know if Parker will be a high-level WR2, or a low-level WR3 on his own team.
So again like Harvey, draft the obvious starters that we all know will see more volume, Indianapolis’ Alec Pierce WR1, Tampa Bay’s Godwin WR2, Tennessee’s Wan’Dale Robinson WR2, free agent Stefon Diggs best WR2 on any team in the league per Stefon Diggs, all jokes aside there’s no argument to be made that you number 1/2 bench guy should be a risky selection, save that for late in the draft like an Antonio Williams, Josh Downs without Pittman, etc.
TE Mark Andrews | Baltimore Ravens
ADP: 102 (TE13)
This is yet another case of significantly better talent further down the board, and it’s happening across every position this year more than in previous years, in my opinion. Mark Andrews will not outperform his ADP. Andrews has shown significant signs of regression, finishing as TE16 last season; Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and San Francisco’s George Kittle are going about a round later, and both are simply not only better but also in more favorable offenses.
Kittle remains with Kyle Shanahan and a great offense that added Mike Evans. Kelce is still with Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Mark Andrews lost John Harbaugh, and the Ravens brought in a defensive-minded head coach while drafting multiple WRs.
Now, if you fail to get one of the elites like Kelce or Kittle, Isaiah Likely is there. He joins his former coach, Harbaugh, so he knows the system, and I personally think the Giants’ offense will outperform the Ravens’ offense this season.
Recap
Avoid Drake Maye and other QBs early on, not named Josh Allen. Avoid Kenneth Walker, RJ Harvey, Parker Washington, and Mark Andrews. Instead, you can target an extra skill position in the 4th round instead of Maye, De’Andre Swift over Harvey, Wan’Dale Robinson over Washington, and lastly take Kelce, Kittle, or Likely over Andrews and proceed to get a QB in the 10th or 11th round.
Check out all of my previous articles, along with future rookie deep dives, available here: Rookie Deep Dives, and make sure to use code DL10 for 10% off all memberships! Also, tune in on YouTube to view our most recent video, where we discuss the best WR values you need to add to your draft board if you haven’t already.
