Week 1 gave us our first real look at how teams plan to use their new personnel, and that’s where I’m focusing most of my Week 2 betting card. Rather than overreacting to one box score, I’m looking for roles that were stronger than the final production, favorable matchups and lines that haven’t completely adjusted to what we learned in the opener.
I’ve narrowed Sunday’s slate down to 10 bets, split between five player props and five anytime touchdown scorers. As always, shop around for the best number. Several of these lines have already moved, and a good bet at one price can become considerably less appealing after the market adjusts.
Patrick Mahomes over 221.5 passing yards vs. Indianapolis
Mahomes didn’t light up the box score against Denver in Week 1, throwing for only 184 yards, but this is a completely different matchup. Indianapolis allowed 247.9 passing yards per game last season, one of the worst marks in the NFL, and the Colts opened 2026 by allowing Baltimore to score 41 points.
The biggest concern is Kansas City controlling the game and not needing Mahomes to throw much in the second half. That’s exactly why I like getting this number at 221.5 rather than chasing a much more aggressive alternate line. He doesn’t need a 300-yard performance. We’re asking one of the league’s best quarterbacks to reach 222 at home against a secondary that represents a major downgrade from Denver. If 221.5 is still available, I’m playing the over.
Bet: Patrick Mahomes over 221.5 passing yards
Juwan Johnson over 36.5 receiving yards at Baltimore
This is one of my favorite numbers on the entire slate. Johnson averaged 52.3 receiving yards per game last season on his way to 889 yards, then opened 2026 with three receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown. The three catches don’t tell the entire story because Johnson was targeted seven times. That type of involvement is exactly what I’m looking for with a receiving line sitting below 40 yards.
The potential game script makes it even better. Baltimore scored 41 points in Week 1, and there’s a legitimate chance New Orleans is forced to throw throughout the second half. Johnson doesn’t need eight catches for this to hit. Four receptions at his usual efficiency could be enough. The only thing I’m monitoring is the illness that affected him during the week. Assuming he’s active without a reported limitation, 36.5 is one of my favorite overs of Week 2.
Bet: Juwan Johnson over 36.5 receiving yards
Chris Godwin over 42.5 receiving yards vs. Cleveland
This one requires looking past a disappointing opener. Godwin caught four passes for 40 yards in Week 1 and commanded only a 14.3% target share, but Tampa Bay immediately treated him like a full-time player. The matchup is also particularly interesting because Godwin operated from the slot on roughly 57% of his routes.
According to FantasyPros, Cleveland allowed the most fantasy points per target and yards per target to slot receivers in Week 1. That’s exactly where I want to attack this defense with Godwin. We’re essentially buying a veteran receiver after a quiet game at a number that doesn’t require anything close to vintage production. He finished only three yards short of clearing this line despite receiving four targets. If his volume moves into the six-to-eight target range, he should have a legitimate chance to get there.
Bet: Chris Godwin over 42.5 receiving yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 50+ rushing yards at Dallas
Croskey-Merritt’s Week 1 usage was one of the more encouraging developments in Washington’s backfield. He rushed 16 times for 63 yards against Philadelphia and, according to FantasyPros’ usage data, accounted for 55.2% of Washington’s designed rushing attempts while playing 49.3% of the offensive snaps. Rachaad White remained involved, but Croskey-Merritt clearly emerged as Washington’s primary runner.
Now the matchup gets considerably easier. Dallas allowed the Giants to rush for 165 yards at 4.5 yards per carry in Week 1. We don’t need Croskey-Merritt to dominate the backfield or break a 50-yard run—we need another 12-to-15 carry workload with reasonable efficiency. If you can still play 50+ at a reasonable price, I prefer taking that lower threshold rather than getting greedy with a higher alternate.
Bet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt 50+ rushing yards
Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards at Tennessee
Barkley’s Week 1 wasn’t a massive fantasy performance, but he quietly rushed for 83 yards on only 15 carries. More importantly, there wasn’t anything concerning about his control of Philadelphia’s backfield.
This is also a game where Philadelphia should have an opportunity to continue running into the second half. Tennessee surrendered 152 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 1, and Barkley doesn’t need an enormous workload at this number. He already cleared 76.5 on 15 attempts against Washington. Give him something closer to 18-to-20 carries against Tennessee and I’m comfortable betting on him reaching 77 yards again.
Bet: Saquon Barkley over 76.5 rushing yards
Aaron Jones anytime touchdown vs. Chicago
Jordan Mason going on injured reserve completely changes this bet. Jones and Mason essentially split Minnesota’s backfield in Week 1, yet Jones still received four red-zone carries and handled 50% of the Vikings’ running back red-zone rushing attempts according to FantasyPros. He scored despite playing only 42.6% of the offensive snaps. Now the biggest obstacle to Jones’ touchdown opportunities is gone.
Chicago is also coming off a game in which Carolina scored 59 points. The Bears struggled against the run throughout the opener, and Jones should have a much clearer path toward Minnesota’s valuable backfield touches with Mason unavailable. Kyler Murray has also been ruled out, putting Carson Wentz in line to start. That creates some uncertainty around Minnesota’s overall scoring environment, but it could also lead to an offense that leans more heavily on Jones. His Week 1 rushing efficiency wasn’t particularly good, but for an anytime touchdown I’m much more interested in his opportunity near the goal line.
Bet: Aaron Jones anytime touchdown
Dallas Goedert anytime touchdown at Tennessee
I’m not betting Goedert simply because he scored twice in Week 1. The underlying usage is what makes me willing to go back to him. According to FantasyPros, Goedert commanded a 20% target share, a 23.5% first-read share and two red-zone targets despite Philadelphia attempting only 25 passes. He finished with four receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns.
The touchdowns obviously aren’t sustainable at that rate, but the red-zone involvement gives us a repeatable reason to bet him. Tennessee also allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per opportunity and seventh-most yards per target to tight ends in Week 1. At around +200, the market is assigning roughly a one-in-three chance of a touchdown. Given Goedert’s Week 1 role, I’m willing to take that shot.
Bet: Dallas Goedert anytime touchdown
Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown at Dallas
Diggs might be my favorite combination of price and underlying usage among the touchdown scorers. His overall route participation was limited against Philadelphia, but Washington peppered him with opportunities whenever he was on the field. Diggs received nine targets, caught four for 55 yards and a touchdown and was targeted on roughly 36% of his routes according to the usage data. He also received a red-zone target.
Now he gets a Dallas secondary that allowed Jaxson Dart to throw three touchdowns in Week 1. The slot component is particularly interesting because that’s where Diggs spent a significant portion of his opener. At around +210, we’re getting plus money on a receiver who immediately led Washington with nine targets and already showed he’ll be involved around the end zone.
Bet: Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown
Quentin Johnston anytime touchdown vs. Las Vegas
This remains the most injury-dependent bet on the card. Johnston caught only two passes for 17 yards in Week 1, but he received six official targets, had another opportunity erased by penalty and ran a route on 83.3% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks. The more important development was Ladd McConkey leaving with a rib injury.
We now have a little more information. McConkey missed practice Wednesday and Thursday before returning on a limited basis Friday, and he’s officially questionable for Sunday. Johnston has also consistently shown that touchdowns are one of the stronger parts of his profile, scoring eight times in both 2024 and 2025.
This bet therefore stays conditional. If McConkey is ruled out or reports indicate he’ll be significantly limited, I like Johnston’s touchdown upside. If McConkey is active without an expected restriction, I’m taking Johnston off the card.
Bet: Quentin Johnston anytime touchdown — only if Ladd McConkey is out or expected to be limited
Rashee Rice anytime touchdown vs. Indianapolis
Rice’s Week 1 target volume was concerning. He saw only two targets, catching both for 19 yards. The most important thing for this particular market, however, remained intact: Kansas City still looked his way near the end zone, and Rice converted a 13-yard red-zone target into a touchdown.
That’s enough for me to give considerably more weight to his larger body of work. According to FantasyPros, Rice commanded a 26.2% target share and 31.9% first-read share in 2025. He’s also practicing fully this week, so there isn’t a current injury limitation complicating the play.
Indianapolis is exactly the matchup where I’m willing to bet on another scoring opportunity after allowing 41 points to Baltimore in Week 1. Rice doesn’t need his full 2025 target volume to return immediately—we need Mahomes to look his way once in scoring territory. At around +150, I still like the setup.
Bet: Rashee Rice anytime touchdown
Final thoughts
The common theme across these bets isn’t chasing Week 1 fantasy points. Mahomes gets a major matchup improvement, Johnson’s seven targets were more impressive than his three receptions, Godwin’s full-time role gives him room for target regression, Croskey-Merritt emerged as Washington’s primary runner and Barkley maintained control of Philadelphia’s backfield.
It’s the same approach with the touchdown scorers. Jones should inherit a larger scoring-area role with Mason out, Goedert’s two touchdowns were supported by two red-zone targets, Diggs was targeted at an enormous rate when he actually ran routes, Johnston’s opportunity could increase substantially depending on McConkey’s status and Rice maintained red-zone involvement despite a disappointing overall target share.
The one bet I’m not locking until Sunday is Johnston. McConkey is officially questionable after returning to a limited Friday practice, so his expected workload could completely change the handicap.
